snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 FYI my "storm" total thus far is 4.0 cm on the nose so lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The GFS shows a generous 3" for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 GFS looking a bit better for tomorrow. We're still talking about a couple of " though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Will be lucky to get anything more then an inch here in SEMI. Terrible runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 2.2" at YYZ officially yesterday. Seems a bit high based on what I was reading in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Looks like the mid levels will gradually moisten up again this morning as the weak upper wave over the western lakes glides eastward. NAM/GFS has around 1/4" of QPF, RGEM moister with 0.3-0.4". I'd side with the drier models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Will be lucky to get anything more then an inch here in SEMI. Terrible runs tonight. Fixed your post.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This wave should be a little more dynamic/convective in nature which opens to door for more variability in amounts but I think 1-2" makes sense with this wave across the city of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This wave should be a little more dynamic/convective in nature which opens to door for more variability in amounts but I think 1-2" makes sense with this wave across the city of Toronto. What time do you see the snow starting? Early afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 What time do you see the snow starting? Early afternoon? Most of it should fall from 12pm-7pm. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few areas get near 3" in Mississauga/etobicoke/Oakville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 HRDPS going nuts. Although it has some support from the UKM it will depend on further north banding and is a lower probability scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Quick model summary for Toronto. HRRR: 1-2" ECM: 1-2" NAM: 1-3" GFS: 2-3" RGEM: 2-3" UKM: 3-4" HRDPS: 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 HRDPS going nuts. Although it has some support from the UKM it will depend on further north banding and is a lower probability scenario. hrdps_qpf_toronto_29.png Based on what I'm seeing across MI, that's too far north. I'm going with 1-2" for the city today, less north more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Based on what I'm seeing across MI, that's too far north. I'm going with 1-2" for the city today, less north more south. Agree. As a side note, weird that YYZ is reported -FZDZ right now. -SN where I am and I'm only about a 20 minutes drive east of pearson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Agree. As a side note, weird that YYZ is reported -FZDZ right now. -SN where I am and I'm only about a 20 minutes drive east of pearson. Freezing drizzle advisory now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Freezing drizzle here in my area as well. I dont think anyone in the GTA is going see more than 2" today. Not much support from most models for more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 So Pearson still reporting -FZDZ but based on the MTO cams it looks like it's snowing in the city. 401 is getting coated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 So Pearson still reporting -FZDZ but based on the MTO cams it looks like it's snowing in the city. 401 is getting coated. It's actually pretty decent -SN. If the flake size were bigger I'd say these are SN rates, but since the flakes are so grainy the visibility isn't so bad. Actually really shocked at the radar returns given what I'm seeing out my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Random pockets of -SN or -FZDZ across the GTA. Any banding is AOB 900mb/under the radar beam. I have happened to stay all snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Steady light snow at my place too that's not being reflected in radar returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Random pockets of -SN or -FZDZ across the GTA. Any banding is AOB 900mb/under the radar beam. I have happened to stay all snow so far. Yeah, maybe there's some lake input because 5dbz returns producing 1-1.5SM type snow is pretty unusual. edit: flow is NE so it seems unlikely it's the lake. Hmmm...who cares. enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Are you using composite or base radar? Base radar is not always the best to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Are you using composite or base radar? Base radar is not always the best to use. I use base. Composite seems to exaggerate the returns, although I'm guessing it has its purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 My total is now just shy of 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just talked to my mom. All -FZDZ, no snow in central Etobicoke. She said there's been no new snow accumulation since yesterday. lol, something doesn't add up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just talked to my mom. All -FZDZ, no snow in central Etobicoke. She said there's been no new snow accumulation since yesterday. lol, something doesn't add up here. Based on the OBS I'm getting on twitter, there is a lot of randomness when it comes to P-type this morning due to the very thin/marginal warm layer in place. For example, Kingston has been reporting -FZDZ and -IP all morning. Milton, etobicoke and Donwtown TO have been reporting -ZR but my area has been all -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Have gotten -FZDZ since this morning in Hanover and its been constant. Its a strange type of precip. that I don't know I've seen. It's coating the windows on cars thin of grainy ice. Roads have a strange surface too, looks like white salt is spread everywhere finely. Yeah, maybe there's some lake input because 5dbz returns producing 1-1.5SM type snow is pretty unusual. edit: flow is NE so it seems unlikely it's the lake. Hmmm...who cares. enjoy! Whatever it is, its very rare. Its -10ºC and freezing drizzle? I assumed once you go below -3ºC freezing liquid doesn't occur generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Based on the OBS I'm getting on twitter, there is a lot of randomness when it comes to P-type this morning due to the very thin/marginal warm layer in place. For example, Kingston has been reporting -FZDZ and -IP all morning. Milton, etobicoke and Donwtown TO have been reporting -ZR but my area has been all -SN. Light snow in downtown Toronto at Bay and Bloor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I had -FZDZ in the morning and over the past hour or two I've had some -SN. Trace accumulations. My total is around 4.9cm since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Have gotten -FZDZ since this morning in Hanover and its been constant. Its a strange type of precip. that I don't know I've seen. It's coating the windows on cars thin of grainy ice. Roads have a strange surface too, looks like white salt is spread everywhere finely. Whatever it is, its very rare. Its -10ºC and freezing drizzle? I assumed once you go below -3ºC freezing liquid doesn't occur generally. Yeah, that's what I'm seeing on the MTO cams. It looks similar to snowcover but maybe it's not. In any case, we should be switching to snow everywhere soon as the cold air continues to deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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