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Frontogenesis/Baroclinic zone induced snows


snowstormcanuck

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DTX is suspiciously confident that we see rain changing to snow with 1-2" locally 3" tomorrow night. Would freshen up the soon to be glacier and dirtying snowbanks grom the weekend thaw.

Euro is showing this exact thing happening. I guess it is possible though these rain to snow events tend to underwhelm.
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Seriously? Only yesterday you called me out for saying something similar. Both February 2013 and 2014 saw huge storms, close to a foot in some areas of the GTA.

 

Yes I know that but nothing historic like what people just south of us saw. DTW saw 94" (238cm) last winter. That beats 07-08 here by a mile, where YYZ recorded 194cm (76.3"). At some point its frustrating man. I know we got nice snowstorms in two back to back Februarys, but with all the records being broken around us, it bares no significance. Is this a new trend because it seems like it? We've been kicked in the ass by Mother nature for about 6 Winters in a row now. Maybe there will be a silver lining at some point, but at this current moment, it doesn't seem like it. Lets name a few.

 

The GHD blizzard was a mood killer. From predictions of 12+" to 4-6" in the end. 

All the blizzards we missed in February 2010. 

The New Years storm last year, where DTW/Chicago got a nice snowstorm. 

The atrocious 2011-12 Winter. 2009-10 was no different.

 

lmao. 

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Some of the best radar returns of the storm are right over the city now. Hope you guys are getting some ground truth.

 

Most recent HRRR run has shifted wave two a fair bit to the south, but as Bliz96 pointed out, it screwed the pooch so bad with wave 1 it's hard to give it too much credence.

Snowing steadily but it's -SN. Flakes aren't that large but not pixie dust thankfully. Looks nice though; definitely a "heart of winter" ambience out there. Roads starting to dust up now.

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Yes I know that but nothing historic like what people just south of us saw. DTW saw 94" (238cm) last winter. That beats 07-08 here by a mile, where YYZ recorded 194cm (76.3"). At some point its frustrating man. I know we got nice snowstorms in two back to back Februarys, but with all the records being broken around us, it bares no significance. Is this a new trend because it seems like it? We've been kicked in the ass by Mother nature for about 6 Winters in a row now. Maybe there will be a silver lining at some point, but at this current moment, it doesn't seem like it. Lets name a few.

 

The GHD blizzard was a mood killer. From predictions of 12+" to 4-6" in the end. 

All the blizzards we missed in February 2010. 

The New Years storm last year, where DTW/Chicago got a nice snowstorm. 

The atrocious 2011-12 Winter. 2009-10 was no different.

 

lmao. 

 

We have also had our fair of surprises, though.

 

Last weekend was almost DAB until a couple days prior.

 

That December 2014 system overperformed. Unusual setup to boot..

 

I recall at least 2 systems overperforming last winter season which dumped 9-11"

 

The Feb 2013 system was a monster success; the only downside to that was I was sleeping during the heaviest rates.

 

Sure, we aren't getting 2 footers per season and others seem to get a big big dog and we don't, but it's also not in our climo for it to happen. We are capable of it, but it's rare. It will happen, but maybe not this year. You don't see Chicago and Detroit getting 30 cm storms every year. Sometimes the cards are just in your favour.

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Yes I know that but nothing historic like what people just south of us saw. DTW saw 94" (238cm) last winter. That beats 07-08 here by a mile, where YYZ recorded 194cm (76.3"). At some point its frustrating man. I know we got nice snowstorms in two back to back Februarys, but with all the records being broken around us, it bares no significance. Is this a new trend because it seems like it? We've been kicked in the ass by Mother nature for about 6 Winters in a row now. Maybe there will be a silver lining at some point, but at this current moment, it doesn't seem like it. Lets name a few.

 

The GHD blizzard was a mood killer. From predictions of 12+" to 4-6" in the end. 

All the blizzards we missed in February 2010. 

The New Years storm last year, where DTW/Chicago got a nice snowstorm. 

The atrocious 2011-12 Winter. 2009-10 was no different.

 

lmao. 

 

It's time to get over the fact that last winter wasn't as grand in Toronto as it was to areas S and W of us. It's time to get over the GHD bust. It's time to get over the 11/12 winter. Move on.

 

A few positive busts:

 

Feb 5th 2014. 9-12" GTA wide when 4-6" was debatable just 24-48 hours before.

Dec 11 2014 speaks for itself

March 13 2014 and Feb 2 2015 had last minute shifts in our favour that were very analogous to 2/5/14

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DTX is suspiciously confident that we see rain changing to snow with 1-2" locally 3" tomorrow night. Would freshen up the soon to be glacier and dirtying snowbanks grom the weekend thaw.

I wish the NAM would quit trolling me, the last 4 6z/18z runs have shown 2-6" snow, and the last 4 12z/0z runs have shown 0", I'm just going to roll with a GFS/RGEM blend and 1" total snow here, with possibly 0.1" freezing rain and a little s***t.

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We have also had our fair of surprises, though.

 

Last weekend was almost DAB until a couple days prior.

 

That December 2014 system overperformed. Unusual setup to boot..

 

I recall at least 2 systems overperforming last winter season which dumped 9-11"

 

The Feb 2013 system was a monster success; the only downside to that was I was sleeping during the heaviest rates.

 

Sure, we aren't getting 2 footers per season and others seem to get a big big dog and we don't, but it's also not in our climo for it to happen. We are capable of it, but it's rare. It will happen, but maybe not this year. You don't see Chicago and Detroit getting 30 cm storms every year. Sometimes the cards are just in your favour.

 

The December 2014 storm was a nice surprise I'll give you that. I got 22cm out of that. The February 2014 storm over-performed and the March 2014 storm I believe. I understand your point, but like i said, nothing speculator. From a climatological perspective, we have a better chance at seeing 30+cm (12"+) than DTW/Chicago. And Chicago's gotten like 3 or 4 in the past 4 seasons alone. Maybe one day we'll see a Winter where we don't have to despair all the time, but this ain't the one.  

 

It just brings you down when people all around you see something near historic and for you, its just another typical snowstorm. 

 

Maybe next Winter! :)

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The December 2014 storm was a nice surprise I'll give you that. I got 22cm out of that. The February 2014 storm over-performed and the March 2014 storm I believe. I understand your point, but like i said, nothing speculator. From a climatological perspective, we have a better chance at seeing 30+cm (12"+) than DTW/Chicago. And Chicago's gotten like 3 or 4 in the past 4 seasons alone. Maybe one day we'll see a Winter where we don't have to despair all the time, but this ain't the one.  

 

It just brings you down when people all around you see something near historic and for you, its just another typical snowstorm. 

 

Maybe next Winter! :)

 

wrong. And take this to the srn Ontario thread or b/c thread.

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It's time to get over the fact that last winter wasn't as grand in Toronto as it was to areas S and W of us. It's time to get over the GHD bust. It's time to get over the 11/12 winter. Move on.

 

A few positive busts:

 

Feb 5th 2014. 9-12" GTA wide when 4-6" was debatable just 24-48 hours before.

Dec 11 2014 speaks for itself

March 13 2014 and Feb 2 2015 had last minute shifts in our favour that were very analogous to 2/5/14

 

 

True, but we just got kicked in the ass by Mother nature again with this system. So thus far, its a never ending cycle. Those three were nice storms, can't argue at all with that. 

 

The 18z RGEM still bullish with snowfall amounts tomorrow. Shows ~4-6" with Wave 3. My preliminary call is 2" for tomorrow. What did HRRR show? 

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Yes I know that but nothing historic like what people just south of us saw. DTW saw 94" (238cm) last winter. That beats 07-08 here by a mile, where YYZ recorded 194cm (76.3"). At some point its frustrating man. I know we got nice snowstorms in two back to back Februarys, but with all the records being broken around us, it bares no significance. Is this a new trend because it seems like it? We've been kicked in the ass by Mother nature for about 6 Winters in a row now. Maybe there will be a silver lining at some point, but at this current moment, it doesn't seem like it. Lets name a few.

 

The GHD blizzard was a mood killer. From predictions of 12+" to 4-6" in the end. 

All the blizzards we missed in February 2010. 

The New Years storm last year, where DTW/Chicago got a nice snowstorm. 

The atrocious 2011-12 Winter. 2009-10 was no different.

 

lmao. 

 

 

We have also had our fair of surprises, though.

 

Last weekend was almost DAB until a couple days prior.

 

That December 2014 system overperformed. Unusual setup to boot..

 

I recall at least 2 systems overperforming last winter season which dumped 9-11"

 

The Feb 2013 system was a monster success; the only downside to that was I was sleeping during the heaviest rates.

 

Sure, we aren't getting 2 footers per season and others seem to get a big big dog and we don't, but it's also not in our climo for it to happen. We are capable of it, but it's rare. It will happen, but maybe not this year. You don't see Chicago and Detroit getting 30 cm storms every year. Sometimes the cards are just in your favour.

I think Westcoaster put it best about a month ago. If you're into guaranteed 10-12" storms every winter, then Toronto is not your city and the GTA is not your region. It is just not part of our climo. Toronto has always seen far less snow than almost every region around it due to its position on the lake. All one has to do is look at EC's climate data website and see how rare it is for Toronto receive a footer.

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Yeah, definitely wrong. If you look at a list of 12"+ storms, Detroit and Chicago crush Toronto in the frequency department.

 

 

 

 

I've now reached the 1" mark for today's total. This latest band has dusted roads but not quite at 1cm

Snowing quite steadily in my neck of the woods. Roads and sidewalks are covered.

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Yeah, definitely wrong. If you look at a list of 12"+ storms, Detroit and Chicago crush Toronto in the frequency department

 

 

 

 

I've now reached the 1" mark for today's total. This latest band has dusted roads but not quite at 1cm

 

I don't know about crush, but Chicago at least has better 12" climo. Detroit does not. Sorry if I didn't make that clear. He's wrong wrt to ORD.

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Yes I know that but nothing historic like what people just south of us saw. DTW saw 94" (238cm) last winter. That beats 07-08 here by a mile, where YYZ recorded 194cm (76.3"). At some point its frustrating man. I know we got nice snowstorms in two back to back Februarys, but with all the records being broken around us, it bares no significance. Is this a new trend because it seems like it? We've been kicked in the ass by Mother nature for about 6 Winters in a row now. Maybe there will be a silver lining at some point, but at this current moment, it doesn't seem like it. Lets name a few.

 

The GHD blizzard was a mood killer. From predictions of 12+" to 4-6" in the end. 

All the blizzards we missed in February 2010. 

The New Years storm last year, where DTW/Chicago got a nice snowstorm. 

The atrocious 2011-12 Winter. 2009-10 was no different.

 

lmao. 

lol really?  I think we have done pretty well.  What about the epic ice storm last winter (I was without power for 4.5 days, some people for over a week just down my road, I'm just west of Campbellville in northern limits of Hamilton and roads were impassable for days) followed by the awesome March 12th storm that recorded a blizzard in Hamilton?  Followed by this winter which now also has a blizzard recorded at YHM with the awesome storm last Sun/Mon that dropped 30-40cm on the Hamilton mountain and near the lake-shore.  Back to back blizzards are good in my books.

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lol really?  I think we have done pretty well.  What about the epic ice storm last winter (I was without power for 4.5 days, some people for over a week just down my road, I'm just west of Campbellville in northern limits of Hamilton and roads were impassable for days) followed by the awesome March 12th storm that recorded a blizzard in Hamilton?  Followed by this winter which now also has a blizzard recorded at YHM with the awesome storm last Sun/Mon that dropped 30-40cm on the Hamilton mountain and near the lake-shore.  Back to back blizzards are good in my books.

 

Lets just continue this in the southern ontario thread? Don't want to clog up this thread. 

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