snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Spitting pixie dust IMBY. Going to need to pick up soon or else I'm calling these bands a dud. Bliz96 and myself already way ahead of you. Wave 1 is a dud. Currently in salvage mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Good eye. The boundary is definitely South of where it was earlier this morning. ~11z RAP OBS 2015020710_metars_dtw.gif ~16z 2015020715_metars_dtw.gif Question now is to quantify what effects this may have on wave two. Ostensibly, the further south the front can sag, the more likely the baroclinic path for the 2nd s/w sags south a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bliz96 and myself already way ahead of you. Wave 1 is a dud. Currently in salvage mode. I mean the bands from salvage mode on the radar look a lot better than what I'm seeing outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS rotates between hit and whiff with round 3 every 6 hours. Jesus. It seems to have frequent NAM-like moves now. Maybe it's the higher resolution... 12z RGEM looking good, as you guys said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 I mean the bands from salvage mode on the radar look a lot better than what I'm seeing outside. It's pretty showery S of a line from Collingwood to Pickering. Looks like Toronto will get its bursts, but also some lulls. For instance, I think another uptick in snowfall rates is about to move in from your NW, but it may only last 10-20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Question now is to quantify what effects this may have on wave two. Ostensibly, the further south the front can sag, the more likely the baroclinic path for the 2nd s/w sags south a bit too. Agree. What this morning has shown us is that the heaviest snows will want to sit just N of the boundary. Curious as to your thoughts re the front sagging a little further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Agree. What this morning has shown us is that the heaviest snows will want to sit just N of the boundary. Curious as to your thoughts re the front sagging a little further South. Not really optimistic. Front is already parallel to the upper level flow and once the next s/w ripples along it, the tendency may be for it to shift north slightly. But if the shallow arctic air is strong enough that it can make it ooze south this morning by another 20 miles in between s/ws, that may be enough of a buffer zone to at least make it interesting this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 HRRR clearly having trouble locating the boundary. Has a southerly wind at YKZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Not really optimistic. Front is already parallel to the upper level flow and once the next s/w ripples along it, the tendency may be for it to shift north slightly. But if the shallow arctic air is strong enough that it can make it ooze south this morning by another 20 miles in between s/ws, that may be enough of a buffer zone to at least make it interesting this afternoon/evening. It does seem to be parallel to the 850mb flow but at least the 700-300mb flow is veered more to the NW. Should be interesting to see if/where it moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 It does seem to be parallel to the 850mb flow but at least the 700-300mb flow is veered more to the NW. Should be interesting to see if/where it moves. Yup. Nowcasting > model reliance with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 -SN here now. Still finer flakes but nicer to see volume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 12z GGEM total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Thanks for the maps Tim. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Thanks for the maps Tim. Much appreciated. No problem. Weather is the zzz's here. Vicariously living thru the GTA crew with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 No problem. Weather is the zzz's here. Vicariously living thru the GTA crew with this one. Don't get your hopes up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Don't get your hopes up! lol, right. But it's better than watching my snow melt here. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Winds lightly out of the NNW across the north part of the city according to TWN Obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Winds lightly out of the NNW across the north part of the city according to TWN Obs. YorkU shifting N as well http://www.yorku.ca/pat/weatherStation/sinceZHWindSpDr.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Peter Kimbell, a met from Environment Canada, was just on CP24 and he said that the heaviest snow for Toronto will be tomorrow afternoon with 5-10 cm. He wouldn't be surprised if it's more than 10 cm. For today and tonight, he's expecting lighter snows with a few cms with a possibility of mixing with ice pellets/freezing drizzle (especially tonight and tomorrow morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The 12pm update has YYZ reporting winds out of the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Got another 0.5cm since I measured in the morning. Winds are out of the N here at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 UKMET with the middle finger pointed right at the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 GEFs have gone to dog**** too with wave 3. If you net 4" from this garbage system, consider yourself lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GEFs have gone to dog**** too with wave 3. If you net 4" from this garbage system, consider yourself lucky. Yet Boston area with and 12-20" ... funny how the heavy snows keeps shifting all over the place until NE as it has not changed one bit there while it has been all over the place back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Here comes the EURO to completely stomp on our nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Big flakes falling finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Big flakes falling finally It's going to last 9 seconds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It's going to last 9 seconds! Flakes still going. At 37 seconds now. Locking in that 20" forecast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Winds now steadied to pure east at York U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It seems to have frequent NAM-like moves now. Maybe it's the higher resolution... 12z RGEM looking good, as you guys said. rgem_tprecip_slp_neng_17.png Can't help but notice that you seem to be a lot more optimistic in the short range when discussing other areas than you are with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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