blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 In London. Should start trending back to a massive hit for YYZ. Definitely some very solid trends in the overnight guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Revised call for TO. Going to leave wave 3 until later due to the uncertainty but models do look better this morning. Wave 1: 1-3" Wave 2: 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 With this evening's snow swath there will probably be an imbedded 30dbz+ "death band" along the S fringe of the baroclinic zone setting up somewhere around or just east of the GTA. Nailing down its placement will be really important but difficult as there is a razor sharp gradient along the southern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Revised call for TO. Going to leave wave 3 until later due to the uncertainty but models do look better this morning. Wave 1: 1-3" Wave 2: 1-3" Funny how EC's SWS doesn't match their text forecast. Statement calls for "a few cms" across the GTA today. Forecast has 5-10cm Anyway, bit of a donut hole on KC radar filling in rapidly. Snow should start within the 1/2 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Funny how EC's SWS doesn't match their text forecast. Statement calls for "a few cms" across the GTA today. Forecast has 5-10cm Anyway, bit of a donut hole on KC radar filling in rapidly. Snow should start within the 1/2 hr. Winds also beginning to back out of that dreaded SW direction which is a good sign. ESE winds stick around for a while after ~13-17z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Didn't realize the RGEM went ballistic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Funny how EC's SWS doesn't match their text forecast. Statement calls for "a few cms" across the GTA today. Forecast has 5-10cm Anyway, bit of a donut hole on KC radar filling in rapidly. Snow should start within the 1/2 hr. EC text is probably based on the much more bullish RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Winds also beginning to back out of that dreaded SW direction which is a good sign. ESE winds stick around for a while after ~13-17z. One of the most erratic, lowest confidence events I've seen in a long while. I'm going to go with your amounts for the first two waves. They seem reasonable, but slight shifts either to the NE or SW with the baroclinic zone are going to have huge sensible wx effects. 1-3" could easily turn in to 3-5" or <1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Solid GEFs agreements of at least around 0.75" of juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 -SN has commenced at YYZ as of 6.29am. Let's see where this goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 One of the most erratic, lowest confidence events I've seen in a long while. I'm going to go with your amounts for the first two waves. They seem reasonable, but slight shifts either to the NE or SW with the baroclinic zone are going to have huge sensible wx effects. 1-3" could easily turn in to 3-5" or <1". I'm fairly confident we are looking at 1-3" with wave 1 but wave 2 could really do anything at this point, as you mentioned. I would personally lean towards the RGEM given the potency of the arctic air mass that should be advecting SW as the wave arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'm fairly confident we are looking at 1-3" with wave 1 but wave 2 could really do anything at this point, as you mentioned. I would personally lean towards the RGEM given the potency of the arctic air mass that should be advecting SW as the wave arrives. If you don't mind, let me know how flake size/ratios are once the snow gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 If you don't mind, let me know how flake size/ratios are once the snow gets going. It's starting off as small plates and that's under very weak returns. I don't think flake size will be a major concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Weird forecast from the typically odd EC. A significant snowfall on tap for much of the Golden Horseshoe, Central and Eastern Ontario. Over Southwestern Ontario snow today then some freezing precipitation tonight and Sunday morning turning back to snow later Sunday.Disturbances tracking southeastward along a sharp Arctic front stalled over Extreme Southwestern Ontario will bring active winter weather this weekend.1. For areas near and northeast of a line from Orillia to Oshawa, periods of snow are expected today through Sunday. Many areas in a swath of regions extending from Georgian Bay to Eastern Lake Ontario will receive a total of 15 to 25 cm by Sunday evening. Further northeast over a swath of regions extending from Algonquin Park across the National Capital Region to Cornwall total snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are expected by Sunday evening. In general snowfall amounts will be just under the warning criterion of 15 cm per 12 hours.2. For a swath of regions extending from Grey - Bruce to Barrie southeast across the Toronto and Hamilton areas into Niagara, a few centimetres of snow are expected today. However the snow is expected to become mixed with or change over to ice pellets for a few hours tonight into Sunday morning, before changing back to snow later on Sunday. Hence total snow accumulations will likely be in the 10 to 15 centimetres by Sunday evening.3. For regions extending from Southern Lake Huron across the London and Kitchener areas to near Lake Erie from Elgin County to Dunnville, a general snowfall of 2 to 5 cm is expected today. However tonight, the precipitation will change over to various mixtures of ice pellets, some freezing rain, and perhaps some snow tonight into Sunday morning before changing back to all snow later on Sunday as much colder Arctic air returns. Total snow accumulations will likely be in the 5 to 10 centimetre range by Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Seems like a broad are of isentropic lift induced light to occasionally moderate snows. Not seeing a lot of the frontogenetic banding features APX was talking about earlier. As Bliz96 showed, HRRR indicating that may happen with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Back edge of the wave 1 snow already cleared the BP and is approaching KW. I tend to think it'll back-build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Snowing at a decent clip now. Very much a powdery variety with no wind to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Back edge of the wave 1 snow already cleared the BP and is approaching KW. I tend to think it'll back-build. Coating a best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Snowing at a decent clip now. Very much a powdery variety with no wind to speak of. Good for measuring at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Coating a best Your best shot for shovellable comes with the third wave tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Back edge of the wave 1 snow already cleared the BP and is approaching KW. I tend to think it'll back-build. No evidence of this so far. Back edge racing to the SE. Looks like the worse of scenarios will play out with wave 1 (<1"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Despite the poor looking KC radar, rates just increased a bit. Lk On has got to be helping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Despite the poor looking KC radar, rates just increased a bit. Lk On has got to be helping out. I can see a band embedded over Lk Ontario on KC radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Been getting some nice fine dendrites over the past hour or two. About 1.2cm in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Back edge will clear Barrie, and may even clear Oshawa and Peterborough. Models were WAAAY too far south and too aggressive with this wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 And there goes wave 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Back edge will clear Barrie, and may even clear Oshawa and Peterborough. Models were WAAAY too far south and too aggressive with this wave. Even the HRRR did a terrible job and it updates every hour. Gotta wonder if this effects wave 2 in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 And there goes wave 1... In some mode of reasoning, the NAM could be onto something with its more northern track. We"ll see. Wave 2 and wave 3 are our last bets. Euro had ~6-7" in Toronto. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Even the HRRR did a terrible job and it updates every hour. Gotta wonder if this effects wave 2 in any way. And I really thought wave 1 was our surest of the deals. lol, this hobby is humbling. Already noticed the latest run of the HRRR nudged north with the second wave. Still have SSW winds at YYZ so the boundary is actually to our north still. Don't think it's unreasonable to cut back expectations with wave 2 to an inch or so, especially west of Yonge. Only good news I see is some returns across northern Lk Huron/eastern Upper MI streaking to the SE. Maybe that'll help generate some overrunning snows between s/ws in the next couple of hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Best chance for real accumulating snow I think comes with wave 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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