dan123 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 If RGEM goes north, I'm taking the midnight drive to London. RGEM says that isn't necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 RGEM says that isn't necessary. At 36 hours, wave 2 is slightly further north than where we would want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 At 36 hours, wave 2 is slightly further north than where we would want it. I was looking at the black and white maps. It's confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 At 36 hours, wave 2 is slightly further north than where we would want it. Via the black and white EC maps the bullseye is slightly NE of the GTA but it is tough to tell if it is N/S of 18z. Certainly not NAM like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The thing is, the NAM is usually a laugh because it overdoes amounts, not because it forecasts less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Via the black and white EC maps the bullseye is slightly NE of the GTA but it is tough to tell if it is N/S of 18z. Certainly not NAM like. Yeah hard to pinpoint the exact location of the heaviest precip. Hour 48 looks juicy. Is it wave 2 or wave 3? Hard to tell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 To me the RGEM through 48 hours looks decent to me. Wave 3 looks like it would be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 To me the RGEM through 48 hours looks decent to me. Wave 3 looks like it would be decent. I agree. Steady snow associated with wave 3 developing by hour 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 0z RGEM looking very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 0z RGEM select photo's of Wave 1/2 with wave 3 developing at hour 48. 12 hours 24 hours 44 hours 48 hours http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS coming in North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS coming in North. Riding the line. Slightly further north but way better than the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Riding the line. Slightly further north but way better than the Nam.Yeah but I think we should just accept that wave 2 looks to be Ne of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nam has 0.41 qpf for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Not expecting much more than 1" with wave 1 tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Through 42 hours the GFS has 5-7" down in the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Not expecting much more than 1" with wave 1 tomorrow morning. hRRR really toned it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Not expecting much more than 1" with wave 1 tomorrow morning. Yes, it's trended weaker than original thoughts. I could see some local areas getting around 2" but no more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS says what wave 3? Most of the energy is south of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The GTA never wins, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 My best guess right now. Wave 1) A much weaker wave than initially thought. 1-2" for the GTA. Wave 2) Graze job with ~1-4" for the GTA. Wave 3) Very uncertain but leaning towards S solution with heaviest amounts over Niagara region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The NAM has been sniffing out north tracks pretty darn well this season, it's funny because after it had many huge busts last winter I told myself I wasn't going to even look at it this season, but yeah I couldn't help but look at every model lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 My best guess right now. Wave 1) A much weaker wave than initially thought. 1-2" for the GTA. Wave 2) Graze job with ~2-4" for the GTA. Wave 3) Very uncertain but leaning towards S solution with heaviest amounts over Niagara region. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if we get 5-10 cm total for the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if we get 5-10 cm total for the entire event. I guess we should remember that this is the GTA. Statistically, heavy snowfalls are not a normal part of this region's climate. The reason people remember years like 1944, 1966 and 1999 are because events like that are so rare in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I guess we should remember that this is the GTA. Statistically, heavy snowfalls are not a normal part of this region's climate. The reason people remember years like 1944, 1966 and 1999 are because events like that are so rare in these parts. Not really. On average we usually do get a nice snowstorm or two every season (>6") and a nice (>9") every two or three seasons. In some Winters, we can get two of them in one season like 07-08. If I'm not mistaken, we usually see a (>12") snowstorm every 5 years on average right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Not really. On average we usually do get a nice snowstorm or two every season (>6") and a nice (>9") every two or three seasons. In some Winters, we can get two of them in one season like 07-08. If I'm not mistaken, we usually see a (>12") snowstorm every 5 years on average right? Fair enough. Both February 2013 and February 2014 saw good storms. I'm overreacting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Latest gfs run looking a little more interesting in the DTX region on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Let's take solace in the fact that the 0z Canadian looks good. It's just one run of the GFS and NAM. We'll see what tomorrow's runs are like. I'm thinking we'll get 6-8" in total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Latest gfs run looking a little more interesting in the DTX region on the back side. It just likes to bait me ... fn GFS is a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 In London. Should start trending back to a massive hit for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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