BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Surface temps are to cold for rain. If anything will be mixed precip at least here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 2:45 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Small but increasing chance I may be joining you.The preceding waves are just too weak to knock the boundary SW. That Pac jet is overwhelming the cold air mass.I have been hoping for a better trend but I seem to have lost all the models with ticks to the NE today. Still looking for more fun and games ahead. Can't win them all (though it looks like Boston area is going to again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 If the NAM was anywhere near the consensus, it would be easier to give it credence. If the 0z suite nudges that way then its a bit of a different story but I have my doubts. TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 2:45 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Small but increasing chance I may be joining you. It's the NAM, hold off for a bit. Alas, models have been trending heights higher in SE Canada with every run. Nothing to really hold the vortex from moving out/NE (no real -NAO hurts a bit). Over-running might not look great, for the most part, but the system snows are still looking good for the GTA IMO. Hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 2:54 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Surface temps are to cold for rain. If anything will be mixed precip at least here. On 2/6/2015 at 2:36 AM, dan123 said: Lol at the nam. Rain for yyz. Temps are forecasted to be like -4 Saturday and -7 Sunday. Oh nam. Ya there's no rain to speak of around here if you take it verbatim. There's a lot of -PL/SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:02 AM, blizzardof96 said: Ya there's no rain to speak of around here if you take it verbatim. There's a lot of -PL/SN. Yes it is. After looking at the 2m temps they are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It's out to 33 hrs, but the 00z RGEM appears to be a bit SW than the NAM with the baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:15 AM, Toronto4 said: It's out to 33 hrs, but the 00z RGEM appears to be a bit SW than the NAM with the baroclinic zone. It is way SW of the NAM and shifted south slightly when compared to its 18z/12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:18 AM, blizzardof96 said: It is way SW of the NAM and shifted south slightly when compared to its 18z/12z runs. Agreed. It shows a nice burst of snow Saturday morning for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:18 AM, blizzardof96 said: It is way SW of the NAM and shifted south slightly when compared to its 18z/12z runs. Yeah. Here's 48 hours. Looks like a decent 2-3" with the first wave for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:20 AM, Toronto4 said: Agreed. It shows a nice burst of snow Saturday morning for the GTA. Per meteocentre, theres nearly 10cm down already by 0z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:21 AM, blizzardof96 said: Per meteocentre, theres nearly 10cm down already by 0z Sunday. Yup. A steady snowfall through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Nowhere near as bad as the NAM but the RGEM still has the best snowfall axis just to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Through 33 hours, the GFS is clearly further south than the NAM out in Manitoba. Edit: Unlike the NAM which has the southern tip of the precip band around the northern shores of Lake Huron/Gbay, the GFS has the northern tip of the precip band in the same area. Quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:38 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Nowhere near as bad as the NAM but the RGEM still has the best snowfall axis just to the NE. I think all the models had it just to the NE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:42 AM, dan123 said: I think all the models had it just to the NE though. Only starting at 12/5, so thus far we haven't seen any corrections to the south like I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The GFS is a nice solid hit for the GTA with a widespread 2-4" (initial wave). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS in the RGEM camp through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The GFS is coming in a bit further north than previous runs with the second wave. The GTA is riding the line on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:47 AM, snowstormcanuck said: GFS in the RGEM camp through 36. Wave 2 is coming in a bit north but nothing too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Through 57 hours, most of the GTA has seen accumulations around 6-7" including the initial wave but Eastern regions see a bit more (closer to 7-9"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:48 AM, blizzardof96 said: Wave 2 is coming in a bit north but nothing too crazy. Ugh...wave 3 is the money wave. As long as we get a nice hit with that I don't care about the overrunning parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wave 3 looking great for the GTA. Widespread wealth across the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hard to get a precise number based on the maps, but through 75 hours most of the GTA has seen ~10" with eastern regions around 12-13" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:57 AM, Snowstorms said: Hard to get a precise number based on the maps, but through 75 hours most of the GTA has seen ~10" with eastern regions around 12-13" . Well, here's hoping. I just hope that the temperatures won't be too marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:59 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Well, here's hoping. I just hope that the temperatures won't be too marginal. temps will not be a problem at all for this storm. Even the ridiculously far north NAM doesn't get us above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The RGEM at 38 and 48 hours. Initial wave looks good for a general 2-4" for the area. The second wave is bit further north than what we would want it at. Riding the line pretty close. Some ice pellets for Oakville? 38 hours 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 4:00 AM, snowstormcanuck said: temps will not be a problem at all for this storm. Even the ridiculously far north NAM doesn't get us above freezing. Good to hear. 6" of snow will make me happy, although 8-10" would obviously be better. Man, if we get this followed by the severe cold around the 15th this could be a February for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Tight gradient but based on the low res maps looks like anywhere from 0.8-1.1" of QPF in the GTA on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 4:02 AM, blizzardof96 said: Tight gradient but based on the low res maps looks like anywhere from 0.8-1.1" of QPF in the GTA on the 0z GFS. Yup. OB is closest to the sweep spot. Dan and I gotta start sweating it out, although, verbatim, it's still a very nice hit even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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