snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Looks like an area of continuous or almost continuous -SN might set up this weekend across the Lakes. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Looks like an area of continuous or almost continuous -SN might set up this weekend across the Lakes. Discuss. could even be +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 could even be +SN. 12z EURO looks hot for us. There was a similar event about 5 years ago across Wisconsin. Models had no well defined sfc low, and never spit out more than 0.10"/6 hrs at any one point, but parts of the state ended up with a long duration 12-15" under persistent banding. Still apprehensive about a bit of a southward adjustment at some point as that seems to fit climo better. Although I notice a lot of the GEFS members give us a nice buffer zone (some are well to the north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Long duration as you suggested but models are showing the possibility of nice totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z EURO looks hot for us. There was a similar event about 5 years ago across Wisconsin. Models had no well defined sfc low, and never spit out more than 0.10"/6 hrs at any one point, but parts of the state ended up with a long duration 12-15" under persistent banding. Still apprehensive about a bit of a southward adjustment at some point as that seems to fit climo better. Although I notice a lot of the GEFS members give us a nice buffer zone (some are well to the north). Also models are hinting at persistent easterly flow throught the event so who knows. I think it's easterly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Hard not to notice the northward shift the past 24hrs but with these frontogenetic events I'm not going to rule anything out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Hard not to notice the northward shift the past 24hrs but with these frontogenetic events I'm not going to rule anything out yet. Was just thinking the same thing. Most guidance has pushed the neaviest snows north over the past 24-36 hours - at least as it relates to the southern half of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Brewers, we might have some issues with p-type this weekend if the 850mb temps on some of the models are correct. A decent slug of temps over 0C much of Saturday into Sunday. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Brewers, we might have some issues with p-type this weekend if the 850mb temps on some of the models are correct. A decent slug of temps over 0C much of Saturday into Sunday. Go figure. Yup, and that's the other issue with the northward shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 ALE might get his fog and drizzle show. Sure would be interesting to put down another 6-8 inches in these parts to find out what to do with all the white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Monkey wrenches aside, it's nice to see low after low swinging by. Potential nickel and dimers are better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 ALE might get his fog and drizzle show. Sure would be interesting to put down another 6-8 inches in these parts to find out what to do with all the white stuff. He'll be happier than a tornado in a trailer park!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Looks like an area of continuous or almost continuous -SN might set up this weekend across the Lakes. Discuss. what is causing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It is so nice to see thing remaining active. While there is no major storm being shown there is good potential with this set-up to have some fun and games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 what is causing this? Warm air colliding with cold air with little pieces of pacific energy riding the boundary. EDIT: This is the simplified response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z GGEM smoked MBY with about 12" sat-sun, this will be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Anyone know if the 12z euro also had the northward trend? 24hr maps FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z Euro has 0.40 qpf for YYZ with this event. Upper air temperatures are below 20F for the entire duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Also models are hinting at persistent easterly flow throught the event so who knows. I think it's easterly lol. Looks ENE at best. Could be ok for you and the Etobicoke lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Anyone know if the 12z euro also had the northward trend? 24hr maps FTL. Looks north of the 0z, but I didn't analyze thoroughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z GGEM smoked MBY with about 12" sat-sun, this will be fun to track. I am bit nervous about a north trend as it has me right on that mix line. Hopefully this is just the case of the models underestimating the cold air we are about to have move on us as they tend to move it out too quickly in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 I am bit nervous about a north trend as it has me right on that mix line. Hopefully this is just the case of the models underestimating the cold air we are about to have move on us as they tend to move it out too quickly in this area. Strength of the low level cold air could push the boundary further south than is currently progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Solid hit for Southern Ontario, all of NY, and northern PA with this event on latest GFS and CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Looks north of the 0z, but I didn't analyze thoroughly. Slightly further north but more moisture as it has a stronger jet streak and this allows for better development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I am bit nervous about a north trend as it has me right on that mix line. Hopefully this is just the case of the models underestimating the cold air we are about to have move on us as they tend to move it out too quickly in this area. Yeah has me nervous too, especially with the GFS being quite a bit north to where the best snows are slightly north of me. That was also one heck of a band of s***t in southern mi on the GGEM and nobody ever wants to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Strength of the low level cold air could push the boundary further south than is currently progged. Normally I can pick out the darn biases in the models (for the most part that is) but this year I don't know what to freaken think half the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Yeah has me nervous too, especially with the GFS being quite a bit north to where the best snows are slightly north of me. That was also one heck of a band of s***t in southern mi on the GGEM and nobody ever wants to see that. Couple positives are a solid snow pack well into IL and fresh arctic moving in tonight. No strong storm system to drive the WAA north -30C 850 air diving into Ontario and then Quebec just north of the GLs. The big negative is that strong Pac Jet. Right now I am going to remain positive but not go all in. In regards to PL ... if I have to I honestly will take PL before rain in winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Looks north of the 0z, but I didn't analyze thoroughly. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z EURO ensemble mean looks a smidgen further north than the OP with the sfc low over IL at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z EURO ensemble mean looks a smidgen further north than the OP with the sfc low over IL at 96. They look very nice around here overall despite quite a bit of spread among members. The mean has ~0.7" of QPF with over 25 members going 6"+ for YYZ. EDIT: UKIE is all in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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