Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Winter Banter Thread - Part 2


IsentropicLift

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Maybe, or it could have been more like 2009-2010 with a mid-atlantic JP.

That was a über block…doubt it would have been that strong. 

 

Looks at all the storms we had from late january on? it would have been a epic stretch with a -nao or block

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When people say "the sun melted all the snow on sidewalks and roads", are they sure that's only sun related? Just saying, there is quite a bit of salt on those surfaces at this point. Just something I was thinking about.

All you have to do is listen to the meltwater pouring off roofs in the afternoon to know that the sun is indeed doing the bulk of the work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All you have to do is listen to the meltwater pouring off roofs in the afternoon to know that the sun is indeed doing the bulk of the work.

 

Oh, no doubt it's having an effect. I just wonder if it's purely because of the sun and only the sun. I'm not particularly crazy about the roof example, most likely there is a heated space somewhere below that. I'm sure some of that finds its way up there, structures aren't 100% heat efficient.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, no doubt it's having an effect. I just wonder if it's purely because of the sun and only the sun. I'm not particularly crazy about the roof example, most likely there is a heated space somewhere below that. I'm sure some of that finds its way up there, structures aren't 100% heat efficient.

Well, all I know is that the snow and ice atop my unheated, uninsulated barns and outbuildings melt like crazy on sunny late-winter days. Quite a lot of energy is absorbed by black surfaces this time of year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The sun is doing wonders to melt today. We salt a bunch and with the rain prior to the heavy snow a nice layer bonded with surfaces nicely. If this was early febuary roads and walks would not look this good after how bad they were this am. Great event for march 4th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, all I know is that the snow and ice atop my unheated, uninsulated barns and outbuildings melt like crazy on sunny late-winter days. Quite a lot of energy is absorbed by black surfaces this time of year.

 

Ok, thats fair, and that probably is a good example. I wasn't disagreeing, it's just something that I thought about earlier. So I threw it up in banter  :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The sun is doing wonders to melt today. We salt a bunch and with the rain prior to the heavy snow a nice layer bonded with surfaces nicely. If this was early febuary roads and walks would not look this good after how bad they were this am. Great event for march 4th.

Everyone always talks of sun angle in March. We all know the clip below shows what happens when it turns March 1st in winter.

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/an-nkTe4uuJ2hYb4/the_chronicles_of_riddick_2004_swinging_to_safety/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You know, as bad as it feels to get the shaft in any given winter (or severe season, I suppose), just be glad you're not a space weather weenie. It's been almost three months since the last formidable flare, and almost every geoeffective CME in the past couple years has underperformed. Solar cycle 24, which just recently "peaked", has been one of the least active in something like three or four centuries, and there are indications that 25 could be even worse. We could get clear through the early 2020s without a major geomagnetic storming event.

 

:(:weenie:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You know, as bad as it feels to get the shaft in any given winter (or severe season, I suppose), just be glad you're not a space weather weenie. It's been almost three months since the last formidable flare, and almost every geoeffective CME in the past couple years has underperformed. Solar cycle 24, which just recently "peaked", has been one of the least active in something like three or four centuries, and there are indications that 25 could be even worse. We could get clear through the early 2020s without a major geomagnetic storming event.

:(:weenie:

I think that has an affect on our weather tbh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The long range models look like March 1967 is walking in the door after this week.  The models seemed to have a better grasp of the system last evening, they will go back to the 15 inches of snow on the 12Z, I bet.  This coming week is the last above freezing days until sometime in April.  Let's deal with it.  The GEFS are frigid from 3/13 to 3/26, with highs 20-26 degrees. It will be 20-25 below normal for many days folks. I think spring waits until 4/18, my date the pattern changes.  The Feb pattern is here full force for another 4-6 weeks after an excuse of a relaxation this coming week.

 

Guess: March 2015 total snowfall for LI 30-38 inches 40 percent confidence.

Temp: -13.8 below average, will outdo Feb neg. departure. 60 percent confidence.

 

Guess: April 2015 total snowfall for LI 13-16 inches

Temp -11.4 below average

 

Are the red taggers biting on this ???

MJO 7-8 - excellent set up

-EPO very negative - outstanding for constant Arctic highs

+PNA through Boise, Id

NAO even going neutral

Cold SST

Cryosphere right here

 

It will look like PEI, NS by the time 3/31 gets here.

 

My scorned upon theory of leaf out around Memorial Day and mall piles to early June is happening folks, it is happening this year, you'll see...... If one of these two things does happen, please remember that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You know, as bad as it feels to get the shaft in any given winter (or severe season, I suppose), just be glad you're not a space weather weenie. It's been almost three months since the last formidable flare, and almost every geoeffective CME in the past couple years has underperformed. Solar cycle 24, which just recently "peaked", has been one of the least active in something like three or four centuries, and there are indications that 25 could be even worse. We could get clear through the early 2020s without a major geomagnetic storming event.

:(:weenie:

I think our power grid is fairly happy about this.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think our power grid is fairly happy about this.

The power grid would largely be fine in most moderate to severe storming events. Even in the epic flare sequence in October/November 2003, the civilized world proceeded mostly as normal, with some satellite navigation systems disoriented for a while. However, auroral substorming was visible as far south as the Gulf Coast, which is more than worth the trouble of wearing a tinfoil hat for a few hours.

 

The "big one" is inevitable, much like the next Bay Area M8 earthquake, the next Yellowstone caldera eruption, and the next large meteor impact event. Might as well enjoy them when they come, I say.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The power grid would largely be fine in most moderate to severe storming events. Even in the epic flare sequence in October/November 2003, the civilized world proceeded mostly as normal, with some satellite navigation systems disoriented for a while. However, auroral substorming was visible as far south as the Gulf Coast, which is more than worth the trouble of wearing a tinfoil hat for a few hours.

The "big one" is inevitable, much like the next Bay Area M8 earthquake, the next Yellowstone caldera eruption, and the next large meteor impact event. Might as well enjoy them when they come, I say.

Yes but the government has prepared for things like this to protect our grid. The advent of the nuclear age has allowed the United States and various other powerful countries to protect their grids through various mechanisms which likewise would protect against a large solar flare/eruption.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes but the government has prepared for things like this to protect our grid. The advent of the nuclear age has allowed the United States and various other powerful countries to protect their grids through various mechanisms which likewise would protect against a large solar flare/eruption.

The government has military and government facilities hardened and prepared. But the transformer on the telephone pole in front of your house and my house is completely vulnerable to the "big one". Better start wrapping our homes in faraday cages!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...