IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Posting an hour 72 18z NAM snow map is just as bad as posting an hour 240 Euro snow map. Who did that? I haven't seen any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Long Beach was featured on 60 Minutes last night. It's great to finally see movement toward getting justice for my hometown. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-sandy-60-minutes-fraud-investigation/ The following is a script from "The Storm after the Storm" which aired on March 1, 2015. Sharyn Alfonsi is the correspondent. Oriana Zill de Granados and Michael Rey, producers. When Hurricane Sandy made its way towards the East Coast in the fall of 2012, residents knew it could be devastating. What they didn't expect was just how bad Sandy turned out to be: 117 deaths, and damage estimated at more than $60 billion, second only to Katrina. Now two and a half years later, Sandy victims have been hit by something else they didn't expect, the storm after the storm. Many of them say they have been cheated out of their insurance claims. Thousands of claims have still not been resolved and there is evidence that many homeowners were victims of what appears to be wide-scale fraud where original damage reports were later changed to make it look like the damage wasn't as bad. Making matters worse, appeals to the federal agency in charge of all of this, FEMA, went nowhere. Hurricane Sandy damaged or destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes and rearranged neighborhoods. Long Beach, New York, was one of them. This was Bob Kaible's house the next day. The yellow one, with a sand dune blocking his front door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What's up with using LE instead of QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What's up with using LE instead of QPF? They're different things. LE is the amount of (melted) precipitation that actually falls, while QPF is the prediction thereof. You can't report having received .5" of QPF, since that makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 They're different things. LE is the amount of (melted) precipitation that actually falls, while QPF is the prediction thereof. You can't report having received .5" of QPF, since that makes no sense. Yet some people still do lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yet some people still do lol Nothing a rather extensive "ignore" list can't fix! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Nothing a rather extensive "ignore" list can't fix! Haha. I have exactly 0 people on ignore. I just skip posts...often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 They're different things. LE is the amount of (melted) precipitation that actually falls, while QPF is the prediction thereof. You can't report having received .5" of QPF, since that makes no sense. Okay, but after model runs some posters are stating how much potential LE. Shouldn't QPF be used, check out the 3/5 event thread, nothing has fallen yet and the term LE is being used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Okay, but after model runs some posters are stating how much potential LE. Shouldn't QPF be used, check out the 3/5 event thread, nothing has fallen yet and the term LE is being used. OK, perhaps I worded my initial explanation too vaguely. I suppose I should have said that LE is the amount of tangible liquid, whether expected or recorded. If you know that LE stands for liquid equivalent, and QPF for quantitative precipitation forecast, there shouldn't be much confusion. Just substitute the acronym for the words and see if it makes sense. "I expect zero-point-three inches of quantitative precipitation forecast" sounds wrong; "the models have just increased their quantitative precipitation forecast to a uniform point-three inches" is fine. If you're interested to learn the science of hydrological forecasting, Wikipedia has a nice article on QPF: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_precipitation_forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 I started using LE because it's a more accurate term. As others have said, QPF doesn't make sense unless you said, "The QPF for the 18z GFS at LGA is 1.2." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I started using LE because it's a more accurate term. As others have said, QPF doesn't make sense unless you said, "The QPF for the 18z GFS at LGA is 1.2." Indeed. You could get technical and try to differentiate between LE, QPF, SWE, etc., but it's hard to go wrong with simply "liquid equivalent" in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 OK, perhaps I worded my initial explanation too vaguely. I suppose I should have said that LE is the amount of tangible liquid, whether expected or recorded. If you know that LE stands for liquid equivalent, and QPF for quantitative precipitation forecast, there shouldn't be much confusion. Just substitute the acronym for the words and see if it makes sense. "I expect zero-point-three inches of quantitative precipitation forecast" sounds wrong; "the models have just increased their quantitative precipitation forecast to a uniform point-three inches" is fine. If you're interested to learn the science of hydrological forecasting, Wikipedia has a nice article on QPF: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_precipitation_forecast I understand what LE and QPF stand for, just not used to seeing people use LE now instead of posters stating model x "spit out 1.5 " QPF". I noticed on some weatherbell maps they are using LE as to QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I understand what LE and QPF stand for, just not used to seeing people use LE now instead of posters stating model x "spit out 1.5 " QPF". I noticed on some weatherbell maps they are using LE as to QPF. "spit out one-point-five inches of quantitative precipitation forecast" doesn't sound right, does it? They're often (wrongly) used interchangeably by novices and even enthusiasts, but I suppose you could conjure up a syntax compatible with both phrases. On the whole, though, it's an exceedingly minor issue. If you're seeing increased usage of LE over QPF, and it seems more correct, then maybe posters have learned to pay better attention to detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 "spit out one-point-five inches of quantitative precipitation forecast" doesn't sound right, does it? They're often (wrongly) used interchangeably by novices and even enthusiasts, but I suppose you could conjure up a syntax compatible with both phrases. On the whole, though, it's an excedingly minor issue. If you're seeing increased usage of LE over QPF, and it seems more correct, then maybe posters have learned to pay better attention to detail. It's a forecast so I prefer QPF, but if you're melting down snow for an actual amount of liquid then LE is correct. And I feel it reads better to use QPF when analyzing a model run..I would never say quantitative precipitation forecast, just QPF. Anyway thanks for replies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The Wednesday / Thursday event (the possibility of it coming together properly) gives me pause; only because it is dependent on two factors coming together timing wise properly...sufficient ongoing cooling w/o too much drying to push the moisture offshore...or, not enough cooling taking place...allowing the bulk of the precip to fall as rain....creating a thread the needle type of setup. The models may well have it right; and we may get a major snow event Thursday morning...but it would not be something I would be comfortable forecasting 54 hours out or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Long Beach was featured on 60 Minutes last night. It's great to finally see movement toward getting justice for my hometown. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-sandy-60-minutes-fraud-investigation/ The following is a script from "The Storm after the Storm" which aired on March 1, 2015. Sharyn Alfonsi is the correspondent. Oriana Zill de Granados and Michael Rey, producers. When Hurricane Sandy made its way towards the East Coast in the fall of 2012, residents knew it could be devastating. What they didn't expect was just how bad Sandy turned out to be: 117 deaths, and damage estimated at more than $60 billion, second only to Katrina. Now two and a half years later, Sandy victims have been hit by something else they didn't expect, the storm after the storm. Many of them say they have been cheated out of their insurance claims. Thousands of claims have still not been resolved and there is evidence that many homeowners were victims of what appears to be wide-scale fraud where original damage reports were later changed to make it look like the damage wasn't as bad. Making matters worse, appeals to the federal agency in charge of all of this, FEMA, went nowhere. Hurricane Sandy damaged or destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes and rearranged neighborhoods. Long Beach, New York, was one of them. This was Bob Kaible's house the next day. The yellow one, with a sand dune blocking his front door. The fraud is sickening. Some insurance company's were changing reports to say sandy water damage was actually caused by long term erosion thus making them not liable to pay. Long term erosion in a residential neighborhoods blocks from the ocean. That is horrendously wrong and someone should go to jail over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My messages have been getting deleted so I'm calling for 6-12 from DC to Boston. With lolis 14. Craziest winter in my life as far as cold but not as snowy. Still quite snowy if you think about it we've had over 35 inches or more just about everywhere in the NYC tristate another two events coming up here in the next 60 hours. Jackpot snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My messages have been getting deleted so I'm calling for 6-12 from DC to Boston. With lolis 14. Craziest winter in my life as far as cold but not as snowy. Still quite snowy if you think about it we've had over 35 inches or more just about everywhere in the NYC tristate another two events coming up here in the next 60 hours. Jackpot snow If the nams right DC will pour rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My messages have been getting deleted so I'm calling for 6-12 from DC to Boston. With lolis 14. Craziest winter in my life as far as cold but not as snowy. Still quite snowy if you think about it we've had over 35 inches or more just about everywhere in the NYC tristate another two events coming up here in the next 60 hours. Jackpot snow Your posts are getting deleted because they are discussing next winter among other off topic comments, and wishcasting with zero science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If people think a certain model is trash then why do they hump it when it shows what they want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Your posts are getting deleted because they are discussing next winter among other off topic comments, and wishcasting with zero science.zero science? Based on patterns, based on how much cold air we've had, snow cover, March was cold last year with iced Great Lakes. Last year we had a -epo and we had a very cold month, but more suppression of the systems to our south. Every year is different though. This year is special in a way because it's so cold! That 3 feet or more snow cover keeps giving us backdoor cold fronts. Not to mention the frozen Great Lakes...Today was a sunny day, but still chilly because any wind that's not coming from the ocean is freezing cause there's snow cover. Even the ocean is cold 34 I'd say. This is an extended winter. It'll break March 20th IMO Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If the nams right DC will pour raini think NAM is the worst model at this range. At this time I would just go with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Personal attacks should = automatic warnings. Deleting the posts isn't good enough because the same people do it over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Long Beach was featured on 60 Minutes last night. It's great to finally see movement toward getting justice for my hometown. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-sandy-60-minutes-fraud-investigation/ The following is a script from "The Storm after the Storm" which aired on March 1, 2015. Sharyn Alfonsi is the correspondent. Oriana Zill de Granados and Michael Rey, producers. When Hurricane Sandy made its way towards the East Coast in the fall of 2012, residents knew it could be devastating. What they didn't expect was just how bad Sandy turned out to be: 117 deaths, and damage estimated at more than $60 billion, second only to Katrina. Now two and a half years later, Sandy victims have been hit by something else they didn't expect, the storm after the storm. Many of them say they have been cheated out of their insurance claims. Thousands of claims have still not been resolved and there is evidence that many homeowners were victims of what appears to be wide-scale fraud where original damage reports were later changed to make it look like the damage wasn't as bad. Making matters worse, appeals to the federal agency in charge of all of this, FEMA, went nowhere. Hurricane Sandy damaged or destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes and rearranged neighborhoods. Long Beach, New York, was one of them. This was Bob Kaible's house the next day. The yellow one, with a sand dune blocking his front door. It's been an outrage how slow recovery has been for much of Long Beach (and surrounding towns). I'm glad there's finally some exposure as to why. Hopefully each and every one of these crooks gets locked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Personal attacks should = automatic warnings. Deleting the posts isn't good enough because the same people do it over and over. You have access to other people's warning points? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 To me the nam looks good. That mix doesn't look terrible as long as the low passes to our south. The pink (probably sleet, didn't check the soundings) in reality it would most likely be snow. The nam doesn't do justice at this range with dynamic and evaporative cooling. Expecting a colder event is definitely an agenda. I think that initial batch of rain is probably virga as cold dry air just gets there and it evaporates the precipitation before it hits the ground. That always cools all the layers of the atmosphere including the surface temperature. Than you have dynamic cooling which is somewhat helpful for snow, although a relatively weak wave, it will have plenty of moisture so the snow ratios could be very good. Still time this to trend against a snowstorm. Usually models could have a hick up inside 48 hours, mostly just this year but it has been happening. Id say if the models show a snowstorm by tomorrow 12z runs, than you could lock it. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's been an outrage how slow recovery has been for much of Long Beach (and surrounding towns). I'm glad there's finally some exposure as to why. Hopefully each and every one of these crooks gets locked up.Yes... Long Beach hasn't seen nearly the amount of federal and private money it has been awarded. I remember the rescues the day after Sandy, and some places honestly don't look that different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 You have access to other people's warning points?Well usually a warning coincides with a suspension and rarely does someone stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well usually a warning coincides with a suspension and rarely does someone stop posting. No, it usually doesnt. Only after 2nd and 3rd warnings are posting privileges restricted or revoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 No, it usually doesnt. Only after 2nd and 3rd warnings are posting privileges restricted or revoked. What is stopping people from making a new username? If they get banned they could just get a new IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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