NorthShoreWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 And we thought the January blizzard was a bust for the NWS look at Atlanta today!!! They shut the city down early and had rain not a flake. The WC was all over this too. They basically said the mayor of Atlanta who was going by the NWS was wrong. Granted why happened last year was worse with the opposite happening. Not a good winter for the NWS You know you've had a very bad day when TWC has a better forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 And we thought the January blizzard was a bust for the NWS look at Atlanta today!!! They shut the city down early and had rain not a flake. The WC was all over this too. They basically said the mayor of Atlanta who was going by the NWS was wrong. Granted why happened last year was worse with the opposite happening. Not a good winter for the NWSTo be fair, the AFD from Atlanta this morning did outline the complexity of the forecast and that there was a very significant possibility that it would rain until around 0300-0500z (2200-0000 EST). Atlanta was right on the line. Furthermore after the debacle (I believe it was last year) where the mayor of Atlanta was crucified for the hours it took many motorists and children to get home (in some cases 8+ hrs/ while some kids spent the night at school), it's understood the city would be shut. I remember pictures of the interstate being completely clogged due to the plethora of motor vehicle accidents and vehicles stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 To be fair, the AFD from Atlanta this morning did outline the complexity of the forecast and that there was a very significant possibility that it would rain until around 0300-0500z (2200-0000 EST). Atlanta was right on the line. Furthermore after the debacle (I believe it was last year) where the mayor of Atlanta was crucified for the hours it took many motorists and children to get home (in some cases 8+ hrs/ while some kids spent the night at school), it's understood the city would be shut. I remember pictures of the interstate being completely clogged due to the plethora of motor vehicle accidents and vehicles stuck.Surprise snow storm : http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2014/01/29/22492664-thousands-still-stranded-on-atlanta-highways-after-snow-catches-south-unprepared?liteAtlanta afd from 0643 : http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=10&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Gfs says adios winter. Fairly mild run overall or I guess you could say near normal but much warmer than the last few runs and warm for next week's storms. It's been on fire lately so I think the Euro is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Gfs says adios winter. Fairly mild run overall or I guess you could say near normal but much warmer than the last few runs and warm for next week's storms. It's been on fire lately so I think the Euro is on crack.I wouldn't say on fire if this verifies. Until this run, it's shown cold coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=BMX&glossary=1 Civil Emergency Messages throughout Alabama. Up to a foot of snow In some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Thinking warm thoughts thinking warm thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Gfs says adios winter. Fairly mild run overall or I guess you could say near normal but much warmer than the last few runs and warm for next week's storms. It's been on fire lately so I think the Euro is on crack.DT is still saying after the 8th, the pattern is over, mild by mid month 3/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Thinking warm thoughts thinking warm thoughts Gonna start a fundraiser in our subforum to buy you long underwear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Gonna start a fundraiser in our subforum to buy you long underwear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Words of wisdom. http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2015/02/21/understanding-difficult-forecasting-snowfall/ In the warm season, if we forecasters are off by two degrees, and get the rainfall off by a tenth of an inch, not one person will notice. In a snow event, this error is often the difference between nothing, and an icy mess on area roads. This happened today in Northern Alabama, where the models missed a very light amount of precip. but that one tenth of an inch caused serious road problems. The temp. forecast was off by only three degrees as well, so that added to the problems. Snowfall is so extremely dependant on so many factors, many of which are very difficult to precisely forecast, that I’m actually surprised we do as well as we do! It’s especially difficult in areas where snow is rare, because most events there are right on the line between rain vs snow. In these cases, a very slight change in the variables can make a major difference. Another factor is the snow to liquid ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 5 years ago today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 5 years ago today The good old days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The good old days... hgt_ao_cdas.gif The blocking that winter was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2015 Author Share Posted February 26, 2015 Legit light snow here, starting to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Light snow in upper east side. Looks good barely accumulating. Looks like a dusting is definitely possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 BxEngine just became my all-time favorite mod. As much as I hate to admit it, I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I honestly don't even want these little storms like this anymore (Sun-Mkn) because they don't give me a day off and make my morning commute horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I honestly don't even want these little storms like this anymore (Sun-Mkn) because they don't give me a day off and make my morning commute horriblewell ; for coasties and City folk very quickly next 2-3 weeks window of opportunity quickly closes ..IMO ..so as for me ; just want to see NYC snowfall total at least 35 inches for the season .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Does anyone know of a web service or public API (or even site to download txt or csv files) of the daily NYC high/low going back a few decades? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Does anyone know of a web service or public API (or even site to download txt or csv files) of the daily NYC high/low going back a few decades? Uncle w has a high speed thumb drive portal behind his left ear. Just plug it in, youll get what you need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Words of wisdom. http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2015/02/21/understanding-difficult-forecasting-snowfall/ In the warm season, if we forecasters are off by two degrees, and get the rainfall off by a tenth of an inch, not one person will notice. In a snow event, this error is often the difference between nothing, and an icy mess on area roads. This happened today in Northern Alabama, where the models missed a very light amount of precip. but that one tenth of an inch caused serious road problems. The temp. forecast was off by only three degrees as well, so that added to the problems. Snowfall is so extremely dependant on so many factors, many of which are very difficult to precisely forecast, that I’m actually surprised we do as well as we do! It’s especially difficult in areas where snow is rare, because most events there are right on the line between rain vs snow. In these cases, a very slight change in the variables can make a major difference. Another factor is the snow to liquid ratio. While I somewhat agree, applying the same logic one could say that the warmer weather allows for too much error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 While I somewhat agree, applying the same logic one could say that the warmer weather allows for too much error. Thanks for clearing that up for everyone!!!! Wtf did weather nuts like us do back in the day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Californians learn about winter hacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 She said yes! Some of you know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 She said yes! Some of you know what I'm talking about.That's awesome!! Congratulations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 She said yes! Some of you know what I'm talking about. Congrats dude. Hope it rains on your wedding day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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