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Winter Banter Thread - Part 2


IsentropicLift

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And we thought the January blizzard was a bust for the NWS look at Atlanta today!!! They shut the city down early and had rain not a flake. The WC was all over this too. They basically said the mayor of Atlanta who was going by the NWS was wrong. Granted why happened last year was worse with the opposite happening. Not a good winter for the NWS

 

You know you've had a very bad day when TWC has a better forecast.

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And we thought the January blizzard was a bust for the NWS look at Atlanta today!!! They shut the city down early and had rain not a flake. The WC was all over this too. They basically said the mayor of Atlanta who was going by the NWS was wrong. Granted why happened last year was worse with the opposite happening. Not a good winter for the NWS

To be fair, the AFD from Atlanta this morning did outline the complexity of the forecast and that there was a very significant possibility that it would rain until around 0300-0500z (2200-0000 EST). Atlanta was right on the line. Furthermore after the debacle (I believe it was last year) where the mayor of Atlanta was crucified for the hours it took many motorists and children to get home (in some cases 8+ hrs/ while some kids spent the night at school), it's understood the city would be shut. I remember pictures of the interstate being completely clogged due to the plethora of motor vehicle accidents and vehicles stuck.
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To be fair, the AFD from Atlanta this morning did outline the complexity of the forecast and that there was a very significant possibility that it would rain until around 0300-0500z (2200-0000 EST). Atlanta was right on the line. Furthermore after the debacle (I believe it was last year) where the mayor of Atlanta was crucified for the hours it took many motorists and children to get home (in some cases 8+ hrs/ while some kids spent the night at school), it's understood the city would be shut. I remember pictures of the interstate being completely clogged due to the plethora of motor vehicle accidents and vehicles stuck.

Surprise snow storm : http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2014/01/29/22492664-thousands-still-stranded-on-atlanta-highways-after-snow-catches-south-unprepared?lite

Atlanta afd from 0643 : http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=10&glossary=1

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Gfs says adios winter. Fairly mild run overall or I guess you could say near normal but much warmer than the last few runs and warm for next week's storms. It's been on fire lately so I think the Euro is on crack.

I wouldn't say on fire if this verifies. Until this run, it's shown cold coming back.
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Gfs says adios winter. Fairly mild run overall or I guess you could say near normal but much warmer than the last few runs and warm for next week's storms. It's been on fire lately so I think the Euro is on crack.

DT is still saying after the 8th, the pattern is over, mild by mid month 3/15
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Words of wisdom.

 

http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2015/02/21/understanding-difficult-forecasting-snowfall/

 

In the warm season, if we forecasters are off by two degrees, and get the rainfall off by a tenth of an inch, not one person will notice. In a snow event, this error is often the difference between nothing, and an icy mess on area roads. This happened today in Northern Alabama, where the models missed a very light amount of precip. but that one tenth of an inch caused serious road problems. The temp. forecast was off by only three degrees as well, so that added to the problems.

Snowfall is so extremely dependant on so many factors, many of which are very difficult to precisely forecast, that I’m actually surprised we do as well as we do! It’s especially difficult in areas where snow is rare, because most events there are right on the line between rain vs snow. In these cases, a very slight change in the variables can make a major difference.

Another factor is the snow to liquid ratio.

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I honestly don't even want these little storms like this anymore (Sun-Mkn) because they don't give me a day off and make my morning commute horrible

well ; for coasties and City folk very quickly next 2-3 weeks window of opportunity quickly closes ..IMO ..so as for me ; just want to see NYC snowfall total at least 35 inches for the season ..
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Words of wisdom.

 

http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2015/02/21/understanding-difficult-forecasting-snowfall/

 

In the warm season, if we forecasters are off by two degrees, and get the rainfall off by a tenth of an inch, not one person will notice. In a snow event, this error is often the difference between nothing, and an icy mess on area roads. This happened today in Northern Alabama, where the models missed a very light amount of precip. but that one tenth of an inch caused serious road problems. The temp. forecast was off by only three degrees as well, so that added to the problems.

Snowfall is so extremely dependant on so many factors, many of which are very difficult to precisely forecast, that I’m actually surprised we do as well as we do! It’s especially difficult in areas where snow is rare, because most events there are right on the line between rain vs snow. In these cases, a very slight change in the variables can make a major difference.

Another factor is the snow to liquid ratio.

While I somewhat agree, applying the same logic one could say that the warmer weather allows for too much error.

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