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Winter Banter Thread - Part 2


IsentropicLift

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Last summer was just endless beautiful weather,I'd sign up for that again ,whoever wants 90-100 with high humidity should move to Florida

It was a great summer with amazing sunsets and plenty of waves. I feel a repeat weather wise minus the waves as another lackluster hurricane season is on the way we just lucked out where they were lat year. To much surfing related I know

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Last summer was just endless beautiful weather,I'd sign up for that again ,whoever wants 90-100 with high humidity should move to Florida

 

Agree! The grass never died out and it seemed like we got a good drink of water every couple of weeks. I can't recall one humid  or hot day last summer. 

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Last summer was just endless beautiful weather,I'd sign up for that again ,whoever wants 90-100 with high humidity should move to Florida

And whoever wants feet and feet of snow should move to Maine. ..Come on, all weather extremes are interesting. If we are going to have winter- let it be extreme. If its going to be summer- same thing. That's just me though.

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Last summer was a tad too cool for me, 2009 was worse, so I didn't really complain. But I'd like another 2010 or 2012.

Agreed. The consistent snowcover diminishes the need for there to be blockbuster event imo. I don't get the clamoring for spring on 2/24 at all...

Why not? Meteorological spring begins in five days. It really isn't any different than people clamoring for winter on 11/26.

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Still on your game I see. Nice one. How's life over the rainbow these days?

 

I get by nicely enough...though the cost of living is a good deal higher than what I dealt with residing on the outskirts of Wichita.

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Who gives a crap

 

Isentropic, I just want to take a moment to wish you good luck in your quest to literally be the most annoying person I've ever met, you're almost there!

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We better start watching next Wednesday colder SWFE. This will trend to another non cutter and become another coastal redeveloper. Looks like substantial snow and ice for NYC / LI and points north.  Look at the 6Z GFS 174 hour panel and say very promising trends. I am going to say warning event a week from now. I would almost bet on this.  What are your thoughts ?  Pattern says 0.0000000000001 percent chance of any cutter and likely no plain rain at all.

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We better start watching next Wednesday colder SWFE. This will trend to another non cutter and become another coastal redeveloper. Looks like substantial snow and ice for NYC / LI and points north. Look at the 6Z GFS 174 hour panel and say very promising trends. I am going to say warning event a week from now. I would almost bet on this. What are your thoughts ? Pattern says 0.0000000000001 percent chance of any cutter and likely no plain rain at all.

We've learned the pattern doesn't always matter. Wait until 48 hours then let's talk

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I'm from Atlanta so been following this storm closely. What a fantastic write up by there NWS forecast office! I wish Upton could put this much detail and passion in their AFD.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

643 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

..4 TO 6+ INCHES SNOW LIKELY NORTH OF CEDARTOWN TO GAINESVILLE

LINE TODAY/TONIGHT...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WE ARE SHAPING UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS NORTH

GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN THE GENERAL

TREND OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY UNCERTAINTY ON THE

SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW AS WELL AS SOME OF THE ACCUMULATIONS

ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS /INCLUDING GAINESVILLE AND

ATHENS/ BASED ON EARLY- TO MID-DAY DOWNSLOPING POTENTIAL KEEPING

SURFACE TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER AND LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS EARLY

ON. BUT I/M GETTING AHEAD OF MYSELF HERE. CLASSIC MILLER-A PATTERN

SETTING UP WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

AND GULF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS

MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF PROGGED TO WORK ITS

WAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FROM 00Z-06Z

THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SO LET

US JUST START WITH THE OVERALL NUTSHELL...AND THEN WE WILL GO INTO

SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES /BUST-POTENTIAL/ AND LIMITATIONS.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED FORECAST AND

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE BUT PLAN

TO SEGMENT THE PRODUCT TO INCLUDE THE LOWER AMOUNTS AND LOWER

CONFIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE WARNING...AND HIGHER

AMOUNTS/HIGHER CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.

SO FIRST...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND QPF. MODELS IN INCREDIBLE

AGREEMENT WITH BAND OF PRECIPITATION PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN

PORTION OF METRO ATLANTA LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING ACROSS THE

ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH ON

OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED TO CARRY TREND OF 100 POPS FOR A

GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING. QPF IS OF COURSE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE

SURFACE LOW AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA

MAY SEE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN. A GOOD HALF INCH LIQUID EXPECTED

ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE THAT WE

WILL GET INTO BELOW. PRECIPITATION BEGINS MOVING OUT BETWEEN 00Z-06Z

WITH DRY SLOTTING PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTH OF THE

DEFORMATION ZONES SETTING UP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA /MORE ON THAT

BELOW AS WELL/...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION

IN NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY.

ONTO TEMPERATURES VS. DEWPOINTS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE AT

AFD TIME THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND THE RESULT IS QUITE A BIT

OF FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY

FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 9AM TO

ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES COME IN LATER THIS MORNING.

NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH OF THE APPROACHING LOW

MAY LEAD TO SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE WARM BELT THAT TYPICALLY RUNS

FROM ATHENS TO GAINESVILLE AND INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY

LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AT LEAST INITIALLY IN THAT AREA. NAM AND GFS

BOTH STUBBORNLY KEEP THE WET BULB ZERO CLOSE TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER

FOR MUCH OF THE DAY /AFTER THE MORNING WARMUP OF COURSE/ WITH LOW

LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING

RUNNING COOLER/DRIER THAN MODEL PROGS...HAVE MADE SOME MANUAL

ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT TREND. IN

REALITY IT COULD EASILY GO EITHER WAY. SURFACE WAA MAY WIN OUT...

BUT THEN AGAIN EVAPORATIONAL COOLING INTO THE DRIER SURFACE LAYER

MAY WIN OUT AND...LIKE YESTERDAY...KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE

COOLER. OF COURSE...ONCE SNOW STARTS ACCUMULATING ALL BETS ARE OFF

BECAUSE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT HANDLE SNOW ON THE

GROUND WELL AT ALL...SO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT MAY DEFINITELY BE ON

THE WARM SIDE.

AND ONTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS PLUS

THICKNESSES AND OTHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FINE LINE

ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH METRO OF RAIN VS. SNOW. SEE VERY LITTLE

TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY OTHER P-TYPE EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME

FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE END OF THE EVENT AS WE LOSE SATURATION IN

THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES LOCATION

OF ACCUMULATION AND HOW MUCH. THERMAL PROFILES ALL POINT TO A HEAVY

WET SNOW /GOOD FOR SNOWBALLS AND SNOW MEN IF THAT IS YOUR THING/

WITH MORE OF OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL 8:1 SNOW RATIO. WITH 0.5 INCHES

LIQUID EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES OF SNOW

DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...AND THIS IS ONE AREA OF

POTENTIAL BUSTING...A VARIETY OF SIGNS POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR

MESOSCALE BANDING. DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT NORTHWEST OF

THE SURFACE LOW AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE...700MB

FRONTOGENESIS NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW...DUAL JET COUPLING...

POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLANTWISE CONVECTION AND NEGATIVE SATURATED

GEOSTROPHIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY...ALL SORTS OF GEEKY TERMS...AND WE

COULD DEFINITELY SEE BANDING POTENTIAL LEADING TO MUCH MORE

IMPRESSIVE /VERY LOCALIZED/ SNOW AMOUNTS. SEEING AS HOW FORECAST

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON BASIN-AVERAGE

QPF...PARTNERS /AND RESIDENTS/ NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE IS

ABSOLUTELY NO WAY WE CAN FORECAST THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF BANDING

WITH 100 PERCENT ACCURACY. FINAL SNOW ACCUM GRID DOES TRY TO TAKE

THIS INTO ACCOUNT WITH SOME AREAS OF 6+ INCHES...EVEN APPROACHING 8

INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SO WITH THIS...HAVE ADDED HEAVY SNOW

WORDING TO THE GRIDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z-05Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS

POTENTIAL.

ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING...THINGS NOT SO CERTAIN.

ALREADY TALKED A LITTLE ABOUT TEMPERATURES BUT BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR

ATL AND AHN SHOW A DEEP NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITH SURFACE

TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. DEFINITELY SEEMS

MORE LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THIS SOUNDING /IN THE ABSENCE OF

CONVECTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN SNOWBURSTS/ THAT WOULD DEFINITELY

LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS INITIALLY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE PULLED THE

SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS JUST A TAD NORTH BUT NOT MUCH

CHANGE OVERALL AS IT SHOULD ALL CHANGE TO SNOW SOMETIME AFTER AROUND

03Z. OF COURSE...BY THEN WE ARE STARTING TO LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE

FEED WHICH WOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ANYWAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF

THESE UNCERTAINTIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE...HAVE OPTED TO SEGMENT

THE WARNING TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE DELINEATION BETWEEN THIS AREA

OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT EXPECTED FARTHER

NORTH.

AS IF THAT IS ALL NOT ENOUGH...WITH ANY SURFACE LOW PUSHING ACROSS

THE AREA CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SEE NO

MUCAPE TO SPEAK OF BUT SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HAS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN

HALF TO 2/3 OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. THINK THIS WILL BE MORE

MESOSCALE/FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN THAN ANYTHING AND DEFINITELY NOT

ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME

ISOLATED RUMBLES ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. OF

COURSE...WITH ANY MESOSCALE BANDS THAT SET UP THERE IS ALWAYS THE

POTENTIAL FOR /DRUM ROLL/ THUNDERSNOW. IMPOSSIBLE TO REFLECT

SOMETHING THAT UNPREDICTABLE IN THE GRIDS HOWEVER.

I SURE HOPE THAT/S EVERYTHING. IF YOU/VE MADE IT THIS FAR...THANKS

FOR STICKING WITH ME. MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS THIS MORNING TO AVOID

THE NEED TO TRAVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE PRIORITY SHOULD

BE TO STAY SAFE AND WARM.

TDP

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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And here I thought we were friends :(

 

<Asks agent if I have any friends>

 

"Nope..."

 

I could fit in another frenemy...I'm pretty sure I have a few of those...

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