Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm predicting a very hot summer unfortunately. No spring. I think all ingredients come in to play to have a very warm April to about June. July may be wet and humid but cooler than average. Hot August and September with way above average. Also autumn should be a warm and dry one with a warm winter of 2015-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The confirmation bias on the board is unbelievable sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yea any idea when that might happen?so annoying... the global temp record for feb is going to be broken and we have to be part of the one cold spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Enjoy spring! It's time will come and we will all enjoy it. No need to rush just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Just give us 1 20"+ HECS and then I hope it torches right into the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Just give us 1 20"+ HECS and then I hope it torches right into the 70s. Yea I would take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm predicting a very hot summer unfortunately. No spring. I think all ingredients come in to play to have a very warm April to about June. July may be wet and humid but cooler than average. Hot August and September with way above average. Also autumn should be a warm and dry one with a warm winter of 2015-16. Are you a Farmer's Almanac writer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Just give us 1 20"+ HECS and then I hope it torches right into the 70s. That's fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 There is building support for a complete breakdown of the cold pattern come the beginning of March. The euro weeklies are showing it. By early March it looks increasing likely that we have a hostile MJO wave which forces retrogression and we go into an -PNA, +EPO/+WPO, +AO and +NAO regime. Come early March the EPO is progged neutral, so is the WPO, but they are both on their way up into positive territory. If that happens, break out the short sleeves with that March sun overhead.., and the life rafts with all the melting snow up this way...I have about 2-3 inches of water equivalent locked up in snowpack. FWIW-models are often too quick to breakdown a pattern, so while I agree it will have to end some time, I think early March is too early...more like week 2 or even week 3 of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Can I ask which CFS you are looking at? I just looked at the 6z and it's "warm" for like a week, then cold again until aprilCFS v2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Are you a Farmer's Almanac writer?No but I predict long term weather. I have a web site on it. I've been doing it for 3 years and not to sound like a douche but I got all 3 winters and summers right so far. I can pm you site if you want Edit: Im surprised at the results myself trust me. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 can't wait for this -epo pattern to reverse. then it's back to endless positive departure months After 20 months of mostly below, we're due for a change. Really has not been that warm once the epic July 2013 furnace month ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This winter (DJF) looks like its going to feature the strongest -EPO/+PNA/+AO combo pattern since at least 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This winter (DJF) looks like its going to feature the strongest -EPO/+PNA/+AO pattern since at least 1950.which winter had the second strongest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I hope this is wrong . You really don`t need 8 weeks of this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 CFS v2 Oh, you mean that CFS that was just posted above......Yeah, looks like a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Oh, you mean that CFS that was just posted above......Yeah, looks like a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I hope this is wrong . You really don`t need 8 weeks of this . that map is paywalled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Eastern LI, see image I posted above from today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Eastern LI, see image I posted above from today Yeah, I did, it shows cold anomalies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 that map is paywalled My bad . I will not post it but if you look at the D15 Euro ensembles you can see the trough is just stuck in the east . That get`s you out to March 4th . If you can`t get rid of that NEG EPO , you can`t get rid of the EC trough . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah, I did, it shows cold anomalies here.It went from deep blues to that in one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It went from deep blues to that in one day That`s because the CFSV2 sees this . The Euro does not look like this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Snowfall 2014-15 Winter Through February 17, 2014 / 4:00 PM Islip: 41.4" Bridgeport: 36.8" NWS Upton 34.9" LaGuardia: 32.3" JFK: 26.4" Newark: 25.7" Central Park: 24.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It went from deep blues to that in one day That's different, what you said below, was not accurate, not only is it not "way above normal temps", it's actually below. Way off BTW, the CFS, which was the only model showing a cold March, just flipped. It is now showing way above normal temps for us the entire month, another bad sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 As we look back on this past event, it was a nice advisory level snowfall for much of the region.....around 2" here in NENJ and more further south where that band set up.....Though it was not an under performer like almost every event this season, I don't believe that this was much of a bust on either side. For those who, as the storm approached, said we would get next to nothing.....that is of course a bust. For those who said we'd get anywhere near 8,10,12 inches, that is also a bust obviously. For most areas, most of the RGEM/short term model's numbers were fairly accurate (although the snow maps generated from them, which assume mainly a 10:1 ratio, were naturally way off). Many of the snow maps from forecasters/mets/hobbyists were also not too far off (my little map verified well, if the 1-3 and 3-4 were shifted just slightly north on its eastern flank where that band set up). I guess when the forecast is 2-4 after falling victim to many busted, underperforming events, the tendency is to call that an over performer (especially when many were calling this threat completely over when the HRRR generated 10:1 snow maps showed only an inch to inch and a half).....also because the amounts that were slightly higher or at the high of of snow forecasts were centered around the major NY metro area, the tendency is to magnify any slight error with the snow ratios or liquid equivalent.....altogether, factor in the ratios that did materialize and slight model noise between runs which varied from 0.15 to 0.2, 0.25, 0.2, etc.....and you have a nice little event that came together as we hoped it would. No one truly "busted" except those calling for barely any snow or those calling for 6-12". Nitpicking over whether or not NYC got a fraction of an inch more or less just for forecast verification is going a bit overboard in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That's different, what you said below, was not accurate, not only is it not "way above normal temps", it's actually below. Way offIt was a huge shift towards warm, huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It was a huge shift towards warm, huge. Maybe so.....My issue was with the mis-information. That is all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It was a huge shift towards warm, huge. and tomorrow it will flip flop back to cold. It's subject to wild variations every day. It started out warm, went to cold and now is switching back to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 As we look back on this past event, it was a nice advisory level snowfall for much of the region.....around 2" here in NENJ and more further south where that band set up.....Though it was not an under performer like almost every event this season, I don't believe that this was much of a bust on either side. For those who, as the storm approached, said we would get next to nothing.....that is of course a bust. For those who said we'd get anywhere near 8,10,12 inches, that is also a bust obviously. For most areas, most of the RGEM/short term model's numbers were fairly accurate (although the snow maps generated from them, which assume mainly a 10:1 ratio, were naturally way off). Many of the snow maps from forecasters/mets/hobbyists were also not too far off (my little map verified well, if the 1-3 and 3-4 were shifted just slightly north on its eastern flank where that band set up). I guess when the forecast is 2-4 after falling victim to many busted, underperforming events, the tendency is to call that an over performer (especially when many were calling this threat completely over when the HRRR generated 10:1 snow maps showed only an inch to inch and a half).....also because the amounts that were slightly higher or at the high of of snow forecasts were centered around the major NY metro area, the tendency is to magnify any slight error with the snow ratios or liquid equivalent.....altogether, factor in the ratios that did materialize and slight model noise between runs which varied from 0.15 to 0.2, 0.25, 0.2, etc.....and you have a nice little event that came together as we hoped it would. No one truly "busted" except those calling for barely any snow or those calling for 6-12". Nitpicking over whether or not NYC got a fraction of an inch more or less just for forecast verification is going a bit overboard in my opinion WG, you are very verbose & literary...you remind me of me...I'm impressed. *props* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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