chietanen Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yea any idea when that might happen? Here's what the GEFS are showing. The Euro ensembles don't go that far out, but have it approaching neutral around early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 lol. I'm the Dad. My wife is a teacher, so she can't take off. The schools are tough on teachers on these make up days about taking off. Otherwise taking the kids out for a day wouldnt be a problem. Is she union? They'll get her out of working can't wait for this -epo pattern to reverse. then it's back to endless positive departure months Wow almost the whole hemisphere is warm. Yeah when this breaks there's gonna be some nice spring weather to be had. after the mud goes away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Seems like we might go from deep winter to mid Spring in rather short order come next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Hot summer coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Seems like we might go from deep winter to mid Spring in rather short order come next month.There is building support for a complete breakdown of the cold pattern come the beginning of March. The euro weeklies are showing it. By early March it looks increasing likely that we have a hostile MJO wave which forces retrogression and we go into an -PNA, +EPO/+WPO, +AO and +NAO regime. Come early March the EPO is progged neutral, so is the WPO, but they are both on their way up into positive territory. If that happens, break out the short sleeves with that March sun overhead.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Prediction 2, if the euro shows a cutter, certain posters will say, toss the gfs, toss the euro, the ggem has the right idea cause "the pattern supports its cold and snowy solution". Anyone want to wager?? Weren't you forecasting flurries for us yesterday? Anyone want to wager? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Weren't you forecasting flurries for us yesterday? Anyone want to wager?No for my area and we got under an inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Part of the problem with next month is that we don't have an established El Niño. If we had the ENSO/Nino tropical convective forcing, we would be able to sustain +PNA, we are in a La Nada for all intents and purposes so there is nothing to force us from not going into an RNA pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Part of the problem with next month is that we don't have an established El Niño. If we had the ENSO/Nino tropical convective forcing, we would be able to sustain +PNA, we are in a La Nada for all intents and purposes so there is nothing to force us from not going into an RNA patterndude this is a historic winter for the northeast snowy and especially cold so what are you talking about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Part of the problem with next month is that we don't have an established El Niño. If we had the ENSO/Nino tropical convective forcing, we would be able to sustain +PNA, we are in a La Nada for all intents and purposes so there is nothing to force us from not going into an RNA pattern WTF are you talking about? The PNA has been positive all month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 There is building support for a complete breakdown of the cold pattern come the beginning of March. The euro weeklies are showing it. By early March it looks increasing likely that we have a hostile MJO wave which forces retrogression and we go into an -PNA, +EPO/+WPO, +AO and +NAO regime. Come early March the EPO is progged neutral, so is the WPO, but they are both on their way up into positive territory. If that happens, break out the short sleeves with that March sun overhead.., Feelin' Morchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 WTF are you talking about? The PNA has been positive all month Read my statement next month, next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 dude this is a historic winter for the northeast snowy and especially cold so what are you talking about lolNext month, March, read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Next month, March, readi think this drags into early part of March but once the warm air comes in it'll become may I say hot in April.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Hopefully we reload in time for continuous rain in April/May with occasional shots of interior/elevation snow. If we can make it to June 1 without having mental breakdowns or abandoning our obligations and running off to the Northwest Territories, it'll be just 66* business days until meteorological autumn begins and the weather starts improving. Dread not the impending warm season; we'll work through it together, and you'll barely notice that winter was ever gone. *The Arctic Circle is currently just poleward of 66°N. Coincidence? Hardly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Isentropic, pattern breakdown next month. It goes without saying that we had a +pna and severely +pdo this month. Please read what I said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 BTW, the CFS, which was the only model showing a cold March, just flipped. It is now showing way above normal temps for us the entire month, another bad sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 How's the pattern looking for next week? ,GFS shows a strong high dropping and a low off the coast for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 How's the pattern looking for next week? ,GFS shows a strong high dropping and a low off the coast for next weekLet's hope we score next week David. Cause after next weekend into the following week, it looks to get very ugly (if you like snow and cold that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Let's hope we score next week David. Cause after next weekend into the following week, it looks to get very ugly (if you like snow and cold that is)i doubt the cold gives up so early. It'll take a while till we have no snow chances: I'd say mid March!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Let's hope we score next week David. Cause after next weekend into the following week, it looks to get very ugly (if you like snow and cold that is) Lol buying into 10+ day guidance will get you into trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Lol buying into 10+ day guidance will get you into trouble.It's multiple pieces of guidance strongly showing a huge shift in the teleconnections and the overall long wave synoptic pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I just hope we don't go from one extreme to the next but those are some huge signals of a complete 180 turn around. Those posters in NE hoping to get another 1-2' are crazy and will regret it if things flip suddenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Hopefully we reload in time for continuous rain in April/May with occasional shots of interior/elevation snow. If we can make it to June 1 without having mental breakdowns or abandoning our obligations and running off to the Northwest Territories, it'll be just 66* business days until meteorological autumn begins and the weather starts improving. Dread not the impending warm season; we'll work through it together, and you'll barely notice that winter was ever gone. *The Arctic Circle is currently just poleward of 66°N. Coincidence? Hardly. Hopefully we get up into the 70s in a few weeks and our snow is nothing but a memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 BTW, the CFS, which was the only model showing a cold March, just flipped. It is now showing way above normal temps for us the entire month, another bad sign Can I ask which CFS you are looking at? I just looked at the 6z and it's "warm" for like a week, then cold again until april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The first image was my winter forecast for this winter. I put that up on September 2014. It looks good so far matching up with the US snow cover. The totals not so much. Had NYC at 54, and philly at 49. Boston at 59. Still time but I doubt they verify! Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Hopefully we get up into the 70s in a few weeks and our snow is nothing but a memory. We'll pray for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We'll pray for you. Enjoy spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Can I ask which CFS you are looking at? I just looked at the 6z and it's "warm" for like a week, then cold again until april I was wondering the same. The Euro weeklies are not warm either. The "warmest" they get is in week 4 and it's like 0.5 degrees below normal. Of course that's warm compared to where we are at now, especially considering it's mid-late March, but it's not short and t-shirt weather. I'm not even sure why we are so worried about what happens in 3-4 weeks when the next 2 weeks look very promising and long term guidance has failed several times already this past fall and this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I was wondering the same. The Euro weeklies are not warm either. The "warmest" they get is in week 4 and it's like 0.5 degrees below normal. Of course that's warm compared to where we are at now, especially considering it's mid-late March, but it's not short and t-shirt weather. I'm not even sure why we are so worried about what happens in 3-4 weeks when the next 2 weeks look very promising and long term guidance has failed several times already this past fall and this winter. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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