SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still no signs that spring is on its way from the Gfs. All of this cold is going to be tough to scour out. In fact chances of snow will remain anytime precip is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Actually both, didn't see it in the banter thread. Thanks for taking the time out to do it! Finally got around to it; it does take a few minutes 'cause I have to go to about 6 or 7 different NWS sites to gather the numbers. Season to Date Snowfall 2014-15 / Through 2/15/2015 Worcester: 103.0" Boston: 95.7" Albany 68.8" Providence: 52.1" Hartford: 46.8" Scranton: 38.5" Islip: 38.0" Bridgeport: 35.5" NWS Upton: 31.7" NYC LaGuardia: 29.1" Allentown: 26.1" NYC JFK: 22.9" Newark: 22.5" NYC Central Park: 21.1" Washington Dulles: 11.0" Baltimore BWI: 9.4" Atlantic City: 7.5" Philadelphia: 6.5" Washington National: 3.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Finally got around to it; it does take a few minutes 'cause I have to go to about 6 or 7 different NWS sites to gather the numbers. Season to Date Snowfall 2014-15 / Through 2/15/2015 Worcester: 103.0" Boston: 95.7" For the state of Massachusetts...its a case of the haves...and the have mores... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Please no one make a thread for possible snow on Sunday. It has been the kiss of death all winter long. Every time an early thread is created, the "threat" goes to hell. Superstition I know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Please no one make a thread for possible snow on Sunday. It has been the kiss of death all winter long. Every time an early thread is created, the "threat" goes to hell. Superstition I know.... I've always been a firm believer that a thread shouldn't be started for a specific threat unless it's 3 days out, anything longer just promotes arguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Finally got around to it; it does take a few minutes 'cause I have to go to about 6 or 7 different NWS sites to gather the numbers. Season to Date Snowfall 2014-15 / Through 2/15/2015 Worcester: 103.0" Boston: 95.7" Albany 68.8" Providence: 52.1" Hartford: 46.8" Scranton: 38.5" Islip: 38.0" Bridgeport: 35.5" NWS Upton: 31.7" NYC LaGuardia: 29.1" Allentown: 26.1" NYC JFK: 22.9" Newark: 22.5" NYC Central Park: 21.1" Washington Dulles: 11.0" Baltimore BWI: 9.4" Atlantic City: 7.5" Philadelphia: 6.5" Washington National: 3.7" Thank you..amazing gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You can bank that Sunday cutter on the Euro to verify 100% at this range. It's going to be right this time after all the times it has been wrong with the bullish snow threats that never materialized for NYC. What a freaking waste of QPF. Why couldn't that come in the core of this arctic cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Finally got around to it; it does take a few minutes 'cause I have to go to about 6 or 7 different NWS sites to gather the numbers. Season to Date Snowfall 2014-15 / Through 2/15/2015 NYC Central Park: 21.1" That "around 20 inches of snow for Central Park" prediction I made back on November 16th still might carry the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ur gossiping about the gossipers is ironic In And of itselfNot to mention he offended girls high schools all across America. Shameful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NYC really got the short end of the measuring stick for a Boston top 5 snowiest winter. Notice how much better NYC did during the other four snowfall seasons. Boston top 5 snowiest seasons 95-96...107.6".....NYC....75.6" 93-94.....96.3".....NYC....53.4" 14-15.....95.7".....NYC....21.1"....so far 47-48.....89.2".....NYC....63.2" 77-78.....85.1".....NYC....50.7" You think anyone notices the missing 3 feet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 04/05 wasn't top 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 04/05 wasn't top 5? Logan Field with 86.6" in 2004-05..so I guess it was Top 5. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bossnw.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 04/05 wasn't top 5? JAN 05 was the snowiest month on record at Boston until this FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yep, probability for random, independent events simply doesn't work that way. The Law of Averages as used by laymen is almost always misused. In statistical theory, random variables (and presumably the amount of snow per winter season is random each year) will average out at the statistical mean over a very large sample size (i.e., a very long time - centuries, for seasonal snowfall). Decades are nowhere near a "very large sample size," so it's not actually 'expected' that the next decade will be below normal, just because the last one was above. As danstorm said, read my previous post on coin flips (thanks, Dan). Basically, even if a fair coin is flipped fairly and you see heads 10 or even 100 times in a row, the next flip is still just a 50-50 probability of heads, not way less, as most people would guess. This is often referred to as the "gambler's fallacy" - gamblers often take small sample size deviations from the mean (like 5 straight blacks in roulette or three straight 7's in craps) and think that the next spin or roll is more likely to not be black or 7, which makes them wrongly bet more - they're wrong and that's why casinos make so much money, lol. Out of courtesy, I decided to respond in the banter thread rather than the storm one. I really do not see how anything you have said disproves the observations and assertions I made. The flaw in your argument stems from the fact that you presume coin flipping can be precisely and exactly compared to all other chance phenomena in the universe...it cannot. While the results of a coin flip depend only on the direction it is tossed and how far it has to go before it reaches the ground, the weather relies upon thousands and thousands of variables...the more variables added to any potential outcome, the greater the probability of an unanticipated result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 JAN 05 was the snowiest month on record at Boston until this FEB Looks like at the same time Central Park will have a good chance to have below normal snowfall for the month of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thank you..amazing gradient Definitely. Boston, who averages only a few inches more than Hartford (I think?) has 50" more.....That is extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wishcasting is at an all time high today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wishcasting is at an all time high today I think people are forecasting with their hearts and not their heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wishcasting is at an all time high todayYea, the hrrr, rap and 4k nam are all wrong, remember that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The freaking precip hasn't moved a mile north in 6 hrs, most modeles had light snow falling into parts of southern PA, no way this thing drops anymore than 1-3 around nyc with the exception of long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The freaking precip hasn't moved a mile north in 6 hrs, most modeles had light snow falling into parts of southern PA, no way this thing drops anymore than 1-3 around nyc with the exception of long islandIf there is indeed a pattern breakdown come March, I'd hate to see how bad certain people's reactions will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If there is indeed a pattern breakdown come March, I'd hate to see how bad certain people's reactions will be I am very confident that we will get atleast 1 more big storm, it's just not this one lol, hanging on so tightly to 1-3" is indicative of the winter we've had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If there is indeed a pattern breakdown come March, I'd hate to see how bad certain people's reactions will be I think most of us are fine with a breakdown in March. At that point the whole psychology shifts to looking forward to outdoors, springtime, etc. If we can squeeze in a somewhat significant snow event sometime in the first 7-10 days of March, take it as a bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Definitely. Boston, who averages only a few inches more than Hartford (I think?) has 50" more.....That is extreme Truth be told, Hartford (Bradley Field) is snowier historically than Boston. Bradley had a long term average of about 50"...Logan Airport in Boston about 42" or 43". However, over the last 20 years or so, the mean at Hartford had come down just a bit...and the mean at Boston has gone up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 okay what dude you just contradicted yourself. The wall will eventually break down as the heavier echoes move in. It's only slowing the system down. I'd rather have that than the system moving right out to sea. U can tell the storm is trying to turn northeastward! Not for nothing your a negative and a bad poster. You have no clue what your talking about sorry you may or may not have passion for it which I think you do but I've been into weather way longer than you so I think you can learn a few things from me! No offense Lmao... By "learning a few things" do you mean I should have called for 6-12" last night like YOU! your the biggest weenie on this forum, not a shred of what you post comes from your own thoughts, you re-word others thoughts and feed off that and people have noticed.. You've been a member for 12 days and to call me a bad poster cause I'm not telling you what you wanna hear speaks volumes to your character... This is a weather board, not a weenie board, I'm NOT a negative poster, im just telling the raw truth about this storm based off model runs and you don't wanna believe it, if you wanna wishcast go to Facebook little boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You can bank that Sunday cutter on the Euro to verify 100% at this range. It's going to be right this time after all the times it has been wrong with the bullish snow threats that never materialized for NYC. What a freaking waste of QPF. Why couldn't that come in the core of this arctic cold?If the euro is correct about the Sunday cutter, that is going to be a disaster on the roads. With all the extreme cold before this, as soon as the rain hits the pavement it will turn the roads into a skating rink. Even if air temps are above freezing, the roads will freeze over almost immediately and it will take awhile to warm them up. If it happens, hopefully all the municipalities in the area prepare better with salt trucks this time and avoid the disaster we had last month on that Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 People are going to be talking about this winter for a long time. B97n3F_IIAASySL.png-large.png http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/1/014005 "These results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm faster than elsewhere in response to rising greenhouse-gas concentrations, the frequency of extreme weather events caused by persistent jet-stream patterns will increase." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 i can't wait till tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 okay what dude you just contradicted yourself. The wall will eventually break down as the heavier echoes move in. It's only slowing the system down. I'd rather have that than the system moving right out to sea. U can tell the storm is trying to turn northeastward! Not for nothing your a negative and a bad poster. You have no clue what your talking about sorry you may or may not have passion for it which I think you do but I've been into weather way longer than you so I think you can learn a few things from me! No offense Sorry but you've been eating way too many cookies my man "heavier echos" do not break "the wall" down Snowgoose mentioned this just now...The low is really not that well developed...with the H to our northwest in Ohio right now and confluence from the departing storm, the northern part of the precip shield in our area is going to remain light to moderate at times for a good 2-4" snowfall like whats been forecasted the PAST WEEK You were riding the DT train for 6-12" for NYC which is ridiculous There is NO PROOF to back up your claim that heavier precip will head more north to get NYC a 6 incher You absolutely cannot say you know better then anyone else and suggest anyone could learn more from you...The only thing we learned from you is that you can say "more north" without any scientific evidence at all Just because you have been reading message boards doesn't mean you know what you're talking about. I've been reading these message boards since 2003 .I'm still not very knowledgeble There's a difference between a hobby and knowing what you're talking about man..You need to step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lmao... By "learning a few things" do you mean I should have called for 6-12" last night like YOU! your the biggest weenie on this forum, not a shred of what you post comes from your own thoughts, you re-word others thoughts and feed off that and people have noticed.. You've been a member for 12 days and to call me a bad poster cause I'm not telling you what you wanna hear speaks volumes to your character... This is a weather board, not a weenie board, I'm NOT a negative poster, im just telling the raw truth about this storm based off model runs and you don't wanna believe it, if you wanna wishcast go to Facebook little boy Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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