Snowshack Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Entertaining AFD from BOX this morning .. here is a snippet but the whole thing is a good read. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...*/ HIGHLIGHTS...- POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW- CONTINUED BITTERLY COLD- NO BREAK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN- NEXT CHANCE OF WARMTH: SOMETIME SPRING INTO SUMMER*/ OVERVIEW...ENSEMBLE-MEAN PREFERENCE FORECAST. POSITIVE TELECONNECTION PATTERNS.BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH WHICH WE WILL SEE ADDITIONALWEATHER SYSTEMS FOLLOWED BY SHOTS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR. IT APPEARS WEWILL NOT SEE A BREAK IN A PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE MASSIVEAMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL REMAIN TO REMIND US JUST HOW AWFUL WINTER HASBEEN AND HOW WONDERFUL IT CAN BE LIVING IN NEW ENGLAND. HAPPY DAYSARE HERE AGAIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Unreal how eastern Massachusetts somehow managed to make this snow hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6Z GFS looked like it ticked back north with a very slight tick west for next Tuesday (2/17). Won't post in the model thread since I don't know much. to bad more folks didn't think like you ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I am going to say NYC does not break freezing until March 14th, and has its first 40 degree day March 26th. First 50 degree day second half of April. This is once in a lifetime stuff. For snow I think we get 60 inches in NYC between now and April 10th. I am being serious in this banter. What do u guys think. This pattern is probably locked for another 45-60 days at least. I have a bad feeling we flip the other way in late spring and have a very hot summer like 2010 or 2011. The sun angle will start compromising snow on the ground durability in about 3 weeks, whatever happens. What are your feelings about the pattern over the next 4-6 weeks. I think somebody mentioned the Euro weeklies are severely cold for the next four weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 these models are making me insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I am going to say NYC does not break freezing until March 14th, and has its first 40 degree day March 26th. First 50 degree day second half of April. This is once in a lifetime stuff. For snow I think we get 60 inches in NYC between now and April 10th. I am being serious in this banter. What do u guys think. This pattern is probably locked for another 45-60 days at least. I have a bad feeling we flip the other way in late spring and have a very hot summer like 2010 or 2011. The sun angle will start compromising snow on the ground durability in about 3 weeks, whatever happens. What are your feelings about the pattern over the next 4-6 weeks. I think somebody mentioned the Euro weeklies are severely cold for the next four weeks. Take it a week at a time and enjoy it -- like you said this is fairly anomalous especially this late in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I am going to say NYC does not break freezing until March 14th, and has its first 40 degree day March 26th. First 50 degree day second half of April. This is once in a lifetime stuff. For snow I think we get 60 inches in NYC between now and April 10th. I am being serious in this banter. What do u guys think. This pattern is probably locked for another 45-60 days at least. I have a bad feeling we flip the other way in late spring and have a very hot summer like 2010 or 2011. The sun angle will start compromising snow on the ground durability in about 3 weeks, whatever happens. What are your feelings about the pattern over the next 4-6 weeks. I think somebody mentioned the Euro weeklies are severely cold for the next four weeks.False. Just the opposite. The latest euro weeklies are showing a pattern change to warmer for us starting the beginning of March. Whoever the somebody was that told you that gave you real bad info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 False. Just the opposite. The latest euro weeklies are showing a pattern change to warmer for us starting the beginning of March. Whoever the somebody was that told you that gave you real bad info. I think a lot of the red taggers are going for a very cold remainder of Feb and most of March with a greater than normal risk of Miller A type snowstorm tracks. There is nothing suggested on any of the models showing pattern changes. Looked at GFS which is wire to wire cold for the 384 hour frames. I think this is locked in for 40 days, maybe then a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Meh, Euro weeklies have sort of sucked this winter. I can see day by day, looks like they have some kind of storm around day 15 (looking at H5) that gives the boot to the Davis straight vortex. I'll believe it when it happens, it's not the first time it has shown that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is the best we can see in March for a ten day period...some of these years had a great third week of March...1960 was the best of the lot...1956 was second and 1967 third...1993 and 1958 round out my top five...2013 had a good period from the 8th-18th...But half the days were in the 50's... March 1956...1958...1960...1967...1978...1984...1992...1993...1996...2005... 1956.............................................. dates...max min precip snow depth 16.........33...21...0.90"...6.2"...6" 17.........33...20...0.05"...0.5"...3" 18.........30...21...0.38"...3.8"...7" 19.........26...23...0.78"...7.8".13" 20.........38...23......0........0...13" 21.........48...28......0........0.....8" 22.........50...31......0........0.....6" 23.........48...36......0........0.....1" 24.........43...24...0.11"...1.2"...1" 25.........34...18......0........0.....1" 1958............................................... 13.........46...34......T........T.....0 14.........36...33...0.48"...4.1"...4" 15.........41...35......T........T.....2" 16.........43...35......0........0.....1" 17.........45...34......0........0.....T 18.........42...35......T........T......0 19.........39...34...0.02".....T.....0 20.........35...33...0.90"...4.7"...5" 21.........35...31...0.71"...7.1"..11" 22.........45...34......T........T...10" 1960.................................................. 01.........32...21......0........0.....0 02.........36...19......0........0.....0 03.........27...18...0.89" 12.5". 12" 04.........29...19...0.19"...2.0", 15" 05.........33...21...0.01"...0.1". 14" 06.........36...20......0........0....12" 07.........31...17......T......0.2"...8" 08.........30...19...0.01"...0.1"...5" 09.........34...17......0........0.....3" 10.........30...17......0........0.....2" 1967........................................................... 15.........45...29...0.39"...1.8"...2" 16.........32...21...0.14"...0.8"...2" 17.........26...13...0.28"...3.0"...3" 18.........20...10......0........0.....3" 19.........28.....8......0........0.....2" 20.........40...23......0........0.....1" 21.........35...31...0.14"...0.8"...1" 22.........32...29...0.78"...9.0"...9" 23.........35...28......T........T.....6" 24.........44...30......0........0.....3" 1978.......................................................................... 01.........32...25......0........0.....3" 02.........32...19......0........0.....3" 03.........29...24...0.64"...5.0"...8" 04.........30...19......0........0.....6" 05.........28...14......0........0.....4" 06.........33...18......0........0.....3" 07.........37...20......0........0.....3" 08.........30...22......T........T.....3" 09.........43...29......T........T.....3" 10.........43...36......0........0.....2" 1984............................................................................. 04.........40...24......0........0.....0 05.........43...33...0.71"...0.3"...0 06.........44...37......0........0.....0 07.........40...24......0........0.....0 08.........30...18...0.10"...1.8"...2" 09.........32...16...0.29"...5.1"...7" 10.........30...13......0........0.....5" 11.........40...19......T........T.....3" 12.........30...16......0........0.....1" 13.........35...24...2.31"...1.4"...1" 1992......................................................................... 14.........40...24......0........0.....0 15.........35...22......0........0.....0 16.........37...17......0........0.....0 17.........50...29......T........T.....0 18.........45...31...0.09".....T.....0 19.........33...31...0.93"...6.2"...3" 20.........45...30......0........0.....6" 21.........39...28......0........0.....T 22.........35...25...0.44"...3.2"...T 23.........38...29......T........T.....3" 1993............................................................................... 10.........40...32...0.60"...0.3"...0 11.........41...30......0........0.....0 12.........42...29......0........0.....0 13.........40...28...2.37" 10.2". 2" 14.........39...17...0.15"...0.4"...8" 15.........33...14......0........0.....7" 16.........45...26......0........0.....4" 17.........47...25...0.75"...0.8"...2" 18.........29...13......T........T.....2" 19.........33...16......0........0.....2" 1996........................................................................... 01.........34...22......0........0.....0 02.........35...29...0.33"...4.6"...4" 03.........35...21...0.01".....T......2" 04.........35...19......0........0.....1" 05.........61...32...0.22".....0.....0 06.........50...34...0.51".....0.....0 07.........34...23...0.81".....T.....0 08.........24...14...0.28"...4.5"...4" 09.........24...11......0........0.....3" 10.........33...16......0........0.....2" 2005................................................... 01.........42...30...0.29"...2.9"...9" 02.........39...28......T........T.....6" 03.........33...23......0........0.....5" 04.........36...23......0........0.....4" 05.........42...27......0........0.....4" 06.........48...31......0........0.....3" 07.........63...43......0........0.....2" 08.........57...18...0.32"...1.5"...1" 09.........31...16......0........0.....1" 10.........34...21......0........0.....T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 False. Just the opposite. The latest euro weeklies are showing a pattern change to warmer for us starting the beginning of March. Whoever the somebody was that told you that gave you real bad info. Can I ask where you get your information from? It seems like you take a statement you read somewhere on the forums and make your own interpretation of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can I ask where you get your information from? It seems like you take a statement you read somewhere on the forums and make your own interpretation of it.I was wondering that myself...also, let's play along and say there is some pattern change in the beginning of March, that's two freaking weeks away still! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think a lot of the red taggers are going for a very cold remainder of Feb and most of March with a greater than normal risk of Miller A type snowstorm tracks. There is nothing suggested on any of the models showing pattern changes. Looked at GFS which is wire to wire cold for the 384 hour frames. I think this is locked in for 40 days, maybe then a pattern change. In fairness you said nyc not hitting 40 until March 26. That is not happening. The pattern could stay the same and we would still warm up as March progresses. Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 False. Just the opposite. The latest euro weeklies are showing a pattern change to warmer for us starting the beginning of March. Whoever the somebody was that told you that gave you real bad info. You either have no idea how to read a model or just here to troll.. Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 the ao forecast is very positive...The nao forecast isn't great either...The pna is forecast to go negative...If all three materialize as forecast it could get warm around March 1st...These forecasts have been suspect at best in the long range but you can't rule them out completely...last year at this time and in 2011 the winter was practically over for snow lovers in this area...21.1" of snow has been recorded in Central Park...That is not counting the dustings measured as a trace...we still have snow treats this week and next...After that who knows for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You know our season has sucked when Nashville TN and Richmond VA could have a foot of snow on the ground on tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 In fairness you said nyc not hitting 40 until March 26. That is not happening. The pattern could stay the same and we would still warm up as March progresses. Climo. You have to realize that MikeTheHobbyist is just trying to get attention around here by posting extreme forecasts all the time. Thats the kind of nonsense that is allowed on this forum and he gets away posting it in storm threads - this forum is so dysfunctional it is beyond repair unless you totally ban the posters that always break the rules ...........the February 17th storm thread is once again becoming unreadable ...........cluttered with banter and nonsense. Hope BxEngine the new moderator can clean it up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Snowfall 2014-15 Winter Through February 15, 2014 / 7:00 AM Islip: 38.0" Bridgeport: 35.5" NWS Upton 31.7" LaGuardia: 29.1" JFK: 22.9" Newark: 22.5" Central Park: 21.1" *Note: I believe these numbers are correct as per the time stated; but I will double check when the afternoon climate summaries come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Entertaining AFD from BOX this morning .. here is a snippet but the whole thing is a good read. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW - CONTINUED BITTERLY COLD - NO BREAK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN - NEXT CHANCE OF WARMTH: SOMETIME SPRING INTO SUMMER */ OVERVIEW...ENSEMBLE-MEAN PREFERENCE FORECAST. POSITIVE TELECONNECTION PATTERNS. BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH WHICH WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS FOLLOWED BY SHOTS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR. IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT SEE A BREAK IN A PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL REMAIN TO REMIND US JUST HOW AWFUL WINTER HAS BEEN AND HOW WONDERFUL IT CAN BE LIVING IN NEW ENGLAND. HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN! At least they have a sense of humor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You have to realize that MikeTheHobbyist is just trying to get attention around here by posting extreme forecasts all the time. Thats the kind of nonsense that is allowed on this forum and he gets away posting it in storm threads - this forum is so dysfunctional it is beyond repair unless you totally ban the posters that always break the rules ...........the February 17th storm thread is once again becoming unreadable ...........cluttered with banter and nonsense. Hope BxEngine the new moderator can clean it up.... Agree. I know some think it's hilarious, but it's trolling and probably deserves a long ban imposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Am I reading 2M temps of -15 to -20 below for CNJ next Saturday morning on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Am I reading 2M temps of -15 to -20 below for CNJ next Saturday morning on the GFS?Yeah and it shows those zero and below temps for Thurs - Sat. mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah and it shows those zero and below temps for Thurs - Sat. mornings. That seems... overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0.9" for Central Park, 3-6" forecasted. Yayyy!!! This winter's just painful-even if you guys are above average, getting there's like pulling teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0.9" for Central Park, 3-6" forecasted. Yayyy!!! This winter's just painful-even if you guys are above average, getting there's like pulling teeth. I'm ready for baseball/spring. The "possible" Miller A for this week will be the last straw for me. P & C only a few days away now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0.9" for Central Park, 3-6" forecasted. Yayyy!!! This winter's just painful-even if you guys are above average, getting there's like pulling teeth. We're doing pretty well for ourselves in the interior, but it's still just a relentless parade of nickle-and-dime events. I've had 18 accumulating snowfalls with an average of exactly 3.0" per storm. I don't necessarily mind having a bunch of small events, but a change of pace would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm ready for baseball/spring. The "possible" Miller A for this week will be the last straw for me. P & C only a few days away now.... I'd be pretty unhappy at home-almost bare ground and single digits and -15 wind chills. Never my favorite weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0.9" for Central Park, 3-6" forecasted. Yayyy!!! This winter's just painful-even if you guys are above average, getting there's like pulling teeth. Yeah. 7-8 inches of the snowfall total has come from nuisance events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'd be pretty unhappy at home-almost bare ground and single digits and -15 wind chills. Never my favorite weather. Today is definitely a stay inside day unless you can enjoy it skiing/etc. Was in VT last weekend, temps around 0, snow almost the entire time. We were skiing and snowshoeing, it was awesome. It reminded me that yes, winter can be fun as well. However, the second I got back to NYC I was back in "ready for spring" mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I am going to say NYC does not break freezing until March 14th, and has its first 40 degree day March 26th. First 50 degree day second half of April. This is once in a lifetime stuff. For snow I think we get 60 inches in NYC between now and April 10th. I am being serious in this banter. What do u guys think. This pattern is probably locked for another 45-60 days at least. I have a bad feeling we flip the other way in late spring and have a very hot summer like 2010 or 2011. The sun angle will start compromising snow on the ground durability in about 3 weeks, whatever happens. What are your feelings about the pattern over the next 4-6 weeks. I think somebody mentioned the Euro weeklies are severely cold for the next four weeks. I see you're back on the pipe... good man. How did your feelings/hallucinations work out last year? Because I recall you having a "real feeling" we'd have a snowpack through Memorial Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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