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Winter Banter Thread - Part 2


IsentropicLift

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The debbies are starting to take the fun out of tracking at this point...

 

I'd love for a MECS to occur next week. I'm actually really excited about the fact that we'll have a decent Miller A this season, but how often do we get model consistency 5 days out? 

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I think we've had quite enough nail-biter snow threats for one season. It's nigh time that we enjoy one last meat n' potatoes nor'easter—no plot twists, model battles, or obscure and patently unpredictable mesoscale phenomena; just a big storm that locks in at hour 132, touches base at 40N/71W, and graces everybody with 12-18".

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What I've learned lurking here the past few years is every model is terrible and every model is the best.

The problem is that people almost personify the models and then broadly idolize or demonize them according to various, widely accepted apocrypha. That's not how NWP is supposed to work... you don't pick a favorite and blindly stand by its side. The skilled forecaster reviews all credible guidance and tries to glean from the models a forecast consensus, accounting for verification scores, pattern recognition, known biases, a given model's intended purpose, and comparison to observed conditions, among other things. To weigh one model against many others because of one particularly lucky long-range solution from years ago only leads to disillusionment. I think it's safe to say that each model has its merits, and that every model has its weaknesses.

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I think we've had quite enough nail-biter snow threats for one season. It's nigh time that we enjoy one last meat n' potatoes nor'easter—no plot twists, model battles, or obscure and patently unpredictable mesoscale phenomena; just a big storm that locks in at hour 132, touches base at 40N/71W, and graces everybody with 12-18".

From your mouth to Queen Elsa's ears. ;)

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Lol theres no list.

 

You've never been terribly fond of me and the feeling is more or less mutual; hopefully we can co-exist...if not...tout est fini....probably for me. 

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I certainly hope not. I've learned quite a bit from you, and I've enjoyed our witty repartee.

 

Nobody knows what the future holds; nobody but me, of course.  :)  Thank yee!

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...

My Grandfather smoked his whole life. I was about 10 years old when my mother said to him, 'If you ever want to see your grandchildren graduate, you have to stop immediately.'. Tears welled up in his eyes when he realized what exactly was at stake. He gave it up immediately. Three years later he died of lung cancer. It was really sad and destroyed me. My mother said to me- 'Don't ever smoke. Please don't put your family through what your Grandfather put us through." I agreed. At 28, I have never touched a cigarette. I must say, I feel a very slight sense of regret for never having done it, because your post gave me cancer anyway.
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