Animal Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Interesting read. All hail king GooFuS? http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/timeless-battle-of-the-models-new-year-new-era/ Decent article. Nothing new really if you have seen the euro fiascos of late. Uk and gfs have been far superior. Canadian has been okay, but humps out to much qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Enough of the swipes at BxEngine. He's our last hope since we have no mods. I wonder why half the board has vanished... What ever happened to earthlight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Decent article. Nothing new really if you have seen the euro fiascos of late. Uk and gfs have been far superior. Canadian has been okay, but humps out to much qpf. > "The Euro got lucky with one high-impact weather event in 2012. Never question it." > "The Euro narrowly missed one high-impact weather event in 2015. Never trust it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Does anyone know the biggest 24hr snow event for NYC for the month of February? Feb 12, 2006. 24.1" Complete list: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/greatestdailysnowfall.html It's not 24 hour events, it's daily snowfall. If your event was 6pm to 6pm, only the 12pm to 6pm would count on this list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This is exactly why snow packs never last on the south shore. Even though it's only 40 the wind is just eating snow. We lost the entire 4" of powder from the end of the last storm. The snow below that is very stable thought and it would take a mega torch to kill all of it Wind and high humidity. It just destroyed us in 2010-11 on the shore even though LB had just about as much snow fall as anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Feb 12, 2006. 24.1" Complete list: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/greatestdailysnowfall.html It's not 24 hour events, it's daily snowfall. If your event was 6pm to 6pm, only the 12pm to 6pm would count on this list. In PA where I was at the time, we had flurries through moonlit skies. The next morning when I woke up to to the megaband sitting over NYC, I wanted to throw the computer out a window. 05-06 was horrendous for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I went for a 5 mile run in Central Park this morning at 7 AM. Just beautiful. I would take days and days more of this weather - temps near 30s in the morning with the roads clear and a deep snowpack. I always hated winter running in the past but it was just the best. Except that I'm battling a hip injury and will likely be sidelined again for a while, so bring on days and days of snow/sleet and temps in the teens, We are nearing the point in the year when even the morning runs will rarely be all that uncomfortable. In a couple weeks, a low below 20 will be almost 2 sd below the mean and thus fairly infrequent (although obviously we will have some lows below 20 past mid/late Feb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Awful what has happened to this sight so many great posters gone. Good threat on the horizon and this place is so quiet. It's awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Awful what has happened to this sight so many great posters gone. Good threat on the horizon and this place is so quiet. It's awfulWe've had a lot of snow recently, especially East of the city. Many have had their fill and are ready to move onto Spring. Realistically we have 3-4 good snow weeks left. Once March rolls around the odds significantly drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 And for the record we still had roughly 200 posters online for the 00z GFS run. People realize that the models are showing poor continuity. Come back Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 We've had a lot of snow recently, especially East of the city. Many have had their fill and are ready to move onto Spring. Realistically we have 3-4 good snow weeks left. Once March rolls around the odds significantly drop. We are long overdue for a very snowy March. I also think people are cautious about threats given the model uncertainty at medium range lead time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 And for the record we still had roughly 200 posters online for the 00z GFS run. People realize that the models are showing poor continuity. Come back Saturday. Nice post ..."YES" people are "looking" but..not "biting" ..I have seen this set up in the past ..."Snowy few days" predicted....turns out to be a "mess" a few flurries here or there...A few snow showers... " A burst" of snow for an hour or two... 36 -48 hours to get 3 inches of snow ...not fun... BUT....If something "Organized" gets together my interest would increase... "TIME will tell" agreed Sat 12Z suite ...should be MUCH ,,more clear by then IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Awful what has happened to this sight so many great posters gone. Good threat on the horizon and this place is so quiet. It's awful Combination of reasons why - the number 1 reason is the main storm threads become unreadable because many posters do not follow the rules which are posted on this site. Another reason is some members have to post every little thought that comes in to their head all day long many times in the storm threads - such as "how much for my location" ?- which most of the time is just banter (see number 1 reason) and they do so in the main threads - won't even go into the moderator issues ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 And for the record we still had roughly 200 posters online for the 00z GFS run. People realize that the models are showing poor continuity. Come back Saturday.So is now the time I get to ask all my questions without cluttering the thread unnecessarily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 So is now the time I get to ask all my questions without cluttering the thread unnecessarily? Feel free to ask away in this thread, one of the reasons why we have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Feb 12, 2006. 24.1" Complete list: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/greatestdailysnowfall.html It's not 24 hour events, it's daily snowfall. If your event was 6pm to 6pm, only the 12pm to 6pm would count on this list. okay thank you for that information. Have a nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Feel free to ask away in this thread, one of the reasons why we have it.Sweet! So what, in your opinion, is the reason that models are being inconsistent and so completely different this year as opposed to other years? Also, even though technically, yeah, we got snow, I personally am surprised people feel like they've gotten their fill when there's so much possible on the horizon even WITH inconsistent models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Drama Queen came into the office this morning with an exasperated "I cant take any more of this snow". How quickly people forget that we were essentially shutout until 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sweet! So what, in your opinion, is the reason that models are being inconsistent and so completely different this year as opposed to other years? Also, even though technically, yeah, we got snow, I personally am surprised people feel like they've gotten their fill when there's so much possible on the horizon even WITH inconsistent models...This inconsistentency is nothing new. The GFS and the GGEM have undergone recent upgrades and we still don't have enough data to see how these changes have affected performance.As far as the second part goes, once we get a better idea as to what's going to happen more people will be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm getting really freakin tired of getting called out for giving slightly off snowfall and QPF totals, and then ontop of it being accused of having an inland bias because I live there. I'm one of the few posters here that gives a fair and unbiased analysis for all areas. Who gives a crap what those clown maps show, the only people that take them seriously are the clowns themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm getting really freakin tired of getting called out for giving slightly off snowfall and QPF totals, and then ontop of it being accused of having an inland bias because I live there. I'm one of the few posters here that gives a fair and unbiased analysis for all areas. Who gives a crap what those clown maps show, the only people that take them seriously are the clowns themselves. Yanks I really appreciate what you do for this board often im at work or somewhere else and to see your pbp really helps when I'm short on time and can't look at the run myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I guess no ones mentioned that tonight could be one of the coldest nights this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yanks I really appreciate what you do for this board often im at work or somewhere else and to see your pbp really helps when I'm short on time and can't look at the run myself I have to be 100% accurate, 100% of the time for 100% of the locations, and God forbid you make a mistake....punishable by death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm getting really freakin tired of getting called out for giving slightly off snowfall and QPF totals, and then ontop of it being accused of having an inland bias because I live there. I'm one of the few posters here that gives a fair and unbiased analysis for all areas. Who gives a crap what those clown maps show, the only people that take them seriously are the clowns themselves. SV GFS snow maps are not the typical clown maps and you know it. They are very conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If we lived almost anywhere else in North America, nobody would notice 50-mile discrepancies between model analyses... we're just unlucky enough to live where virtually infinitesimal differences can change how (un)favorably a significant portion of the subforum view a model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 MIC HOG ISEN L bad bad karaoke style model analysis on un-sampled energy, no less talk about p-is-sin into the wind.... Start Right Now...try and type yourself 20,000 freakin posts I dare ya.....double dare ya Quantity Never Ensures Quality find a better way of life .....please dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 there is no reason to have PBP for models that are free for the public to view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 there is no reason to have PBP for models that are free for the public to viewi disagree... This is a weather forum and for less experienced like myself I really find the pbp to be a learning tool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 i disagree... This is a weather forum and for less experienced like myself I really find the pbp to be a learning tool... how does a verbatim description of a model teach you anything? you can look at it and see the features for yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 how does a verbatim description of a model teach you anything? you can look at it and see the features for yourselfsomeone mentioned this earlier, we're all friends here and we can help each other. Sometimes I'm at work and I don't have the actual early info like most on here and most models I can read but specifics are much harder for me. This is one of the reasons why I'm on here to learn my passion. I mean for you as a met I doubt you need the pbp but I personally enjoy it especially from Anthony, yanksfan or allsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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