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Winter Banter Thread - Part 2


IsentropicLift

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Near 80" for Worcester?? According to NWS Box site the AVE is 64"

 

That does not sound right at all...I might believe it for the actual city of Worcester...which is about 500 feet lower than the airport...but up at the airport...I'm pretty sure the mean is just under 80"...

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Yeah, this is unprecedented in such a short period of time. Even NYC came out a big +AO snowfall winner.

 

attachicon.gifBOS.jpg

 

 

 

NYC January Snowfall with a monthly AO average of +0.800 or greater since 1950:

 

2015...14.3

2009...9.0

2008...T

2007...2.6

2002..3.5

2000...9.5

1993...1.5

1990...1.8

1989...5.0

1984...11.7

1983...1.9

1975...2.0

1973...1.8

1962...0.6

1957...8.9

 

 

Since mid January, we've seen a lot more perturbation to the NAO / AO states, with some dips negative, and that has helped significantly IMO. We've had some east based blocking show up in the past few weeks which has aided a few of the threats. NAO values have been slightly negative over the past couple weeks, and we're seeing another transient east based block prior to the weekend threat, which could help slow the upstream flow.

 

 

ecmwf_ao_bias.png

ecmwf_nao_bias.png

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So... is the GFS a better model now?

Ryan Maue posted verification scores on Twitter yesterday since the upgrade, and it looked like the Euro was still generally ahead. He and Ryan from the NE forum were also discussing that it seems to have a cold bias. Both are great mets to follow on Twitter. Lots of good info there.

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That does not sound right at all...I might believe it for the actual city of Worcester...which is about 500 feet lower than the airport...but up at the airport...I'm pretty sure the mean is just under 80"...

 

http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Massachusetts/Places/worcester-snowfall-totals-snow-accumulation-averages.php

 

The official 1981-2010 annual snowfall AVE for Worcester is 64.1", to your original point regarding shadowing Windsor Locks annual AVE is 40.5".

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I think our chances of measurable snow for the rest of this month are over. The AO will be raging positive and the only time we had snow this season was when it slipped negative which isn't likely to happen.

The PNA and EPO will make things colder than normal but we're back to either cold and dry or cold and dry to warm and wet. It's what we've seen for the first 2/3 of January and what we've reverted towards.

Unless the AO changes significantly than I don't see us getting measurable snowfall meaning more than an inch this month.

I don't know about March yet.

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I think our chances of measurable snow for the rest of this month are over. The AO will be raging positive and the only time we had snow this season was when it slipped negative which isn't likely to happen.

The PNA and EPO will make things colder than normal but we're back to either cold and dry or cold and dry to warm and wet. It's what we've seen for the first 2/3 of January and what we've reverted towards.

Unless the AO changes significantly than I don't see us getting measurable snowfall meaning more than an inch this month.

I don't know about March yet.

Good banter post, they should have been in this thread all winter long

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I have come up with a snowfall map that we can use for most remaining coastals this season. Rather than people come up with new maps for each storm, why not just have a constant map ? Easier to use and is fairly accurate (sorry for the sloppiness - it's on a phone), although many far NW areas I'm not too sure of. But it will let most of us know what to expect for each and every storm thus far and all that we have remaining for the winter. Whenever we wonder "hey which way will the models go? Is it trending east? No, west? No, east again ?".....rest assured, there is one reliable map that will not change with the models to lead us to happiness, then ultimately despair. Rely on this. Cheers !!

**NOTE : Rather than release map after map of predictions, there is an "Alternate Mode" that we shift into during some storms. I will let us know when that occurs. Simple as this and uses the same map : While in Alternate mode, you simply take 3 areas and raise the amounts as follows :

24-36" becomes 36-48"

15-24" becomes 24-36" and

10-15" becomes 24-30"

ALL other areas receive up to 1"**

f6048e83490b64bf4e5559cc3351e9e8.jpg

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I have to say I find it odd that things keep trending north. With all this mega cold I would think we would be looking at suppression like last march.

What it really is though and the models will correct to this is east not north. No matter how cold it get here the Gulf Stream is a tremendous source of heat year round even now. So these storms want form east at the warm source. So it's not suppression it's eastression. When they finally get their act together is to far NE for us but directly in the direction of Boston.

There is actually a beautiful storm out over the ocean currently. Producing nice waves on Long Island today. Time to break out the winter wetsuit it's about as cold as I'll still surf.

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I have to say I find it odd that things keep trending north. With all this mega cold I would think we would be looking at suppression like last march.

What it really is though and the models will correct to this is east not north. No matter how cold it get here the Gulf Stream is a tremendous source of heat year round even now. So these storms want form east at the warm source. So it's not suppression it's eastression. When they finally get their act together is to far NE for us but directly in the direction of Boston.

There is actually a beautiful storm out over the ocean currently. Producing nice waves on Long Island today. Time to break out the winter wetsuit it's about as cold as I'll still surf.

the PV sitting over Maine last year caused that.   The north/east trend this year makes sense with no west based block and a postive AO

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Ryan Maue posted verification scores on Twitter yesterday since the upgrade, and it looked like the Euro was still generally ahead. He and Ryan from the NE forum were also discussing that it seems to have a cold bias. Both are great mets to follow on Twitter. Lots of good info there.

Can you provide their twitter handles? Thanks.

 

Also, wonder whether anyone use a public/private twitter list of all mets and other weather related users? If so, I can just subscribe to the list. 

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Gfs confirms my thinking. Cold and dry to warm and wet and back to cold and dry. +AO says sorry weenies. Boston better hope this doesn't trend more amplified/warmer or they're going to have a major problem.

agreed seems nobody is following the indicies and the pattern and the results so far - those storm threads are a complete waste of time reading with all the wishcasting and misinformation going on.............

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They would have to be in the 60s with rain and wind (a powerful lakes cutter) to melt that snow pack.

Instead what happens verbatim is they loose some snow (25%) but the vast majority of the rain is soaked into the pack.

And what happens next is people die in massive wide spread roof collapses.

This is not what you want no matter how jealous you are

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Can you provide their twitter handles? Thanks.

 

Also, wonder whether anyone use a public/private twitter list of all mets and other weather related users? If so, I can just subscribe to the list. 

 

Good idea, I'm not sure if there is one but I'd definitely be interested. 

 

Ryan Maue: https://twitter.com/ryanmaue

Ryan Hanrahan (CT Rain):https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan

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The GGEM takes your snowfall map and throws it in the garbage. Front end dump and then over to pouring rain for Boston and SNE. My heart is breaking for them.

Lol but that's after another big snowstorm.....still time for it to change. It just feels wrong thinking they'd receive less than 1-2 feet of snow from a storm, let alone rain

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