EasternLI Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Need to nuke that vortex thats been an anchor by the Davis Straight to see some meaningful pattern change. EPS looks like more of the same all the way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 LOL. Always does right? Starting to get ready for spring myself, brutal cold with no snow doesnt do much for me.Got to agree with you. I'm a cold and snow lover but once we get into March, I'm ready for sun, longer days and warmer temps. If accuweather is right and winter does end at the beginning of March, I will not be complaining about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Sound like accuweather is sniffing out winter ending sometime in March...they might be on to something. especially when March is the first day of met spring...we could see a cold first two or three weeks of cold and snow before Spring prevails... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I would love an epic March snow event to end the winter. It's like the only month that has lacked a major event. And yea shocking that Spring begins in late March thanks accuweather I would've never known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 LOL. Always does right? Starting to get ready for spring myself, brutal cold with no snow doesnt do much for me. Exactly lol, not exactly a bold forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Radar out in Midwest looks pretty insane, like a giant radar Cinnabon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Computer Guy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 irritating how the models backed off on all threats (at least what it appeared to be) in day or maybe less dare i say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 irritating how the models backed off on all threats (at least what it appeared to be) in day or maybe less dare i say... Remember what happen with the blizzard, models lost it for about 2 days only to bring it back strong as ever, granted it missed most, many still verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Just my opinion but I really think having 3 storm threads open is a little much, if it's not within 168hrs it shouldn't have its own thread... That's why we have a February discussion thread, for possible events that far out Did you mean a different hour? Otherwise you kinda argued against your own point here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 irritating how the models backed off on all threats (at least what it appeared to be) in day or maybe less dare i say... What else is new? Still, February is young. Maybe we'll get a good whack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah, Boston also did great in 92-93. It must be nice living in a place where you can do well on a +AO. 92-93....83.9" 14-15....77.3" so far i'm pretty sure this is the best they've ever done with a +ao. 92/93 had -ao stretches in feb and march and 70/71 had a -nao january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Reposting here as this is more banter: Would anyone like to explain- in basic terms- how to read a 500mb map? I continue to hear things like 'set up looks much better at h5" but I don't really know what to look for to confirm that. If I am using tropical tidbits maps- what view am I looking at and what am I trying to compare on a surface map that would make the set up look "better" or "worse" at 500mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 i'm pretty sure this is the best they've ever done with a +ao. 92/93 had -ao stretches in feb and march and 70/71 had a -nao january Yeah, this is unprecedented in such a short period of time. Even NYC came out a big +AO snowfall winner. NYC January Snowfall with a monthly AO average of +0.800 or greater since 1950: 2015...14.3 2009...9.0 2008...T 2007...2.6 2002..3.5 2000...9.5 1993...1.5 1990...1.8 1989...5.0 1984...11.7 1983...1.9 1975...2.0 1973...1.8 1962...0.6 1957...8.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Hey guys, heard a rumor about a possible pattern breakdown at the end of February/start of March. Supposedly the pattern out west is showing signs of breaking down (+epo, +wpo, -pna/rna) and going into zonal and semifinal flow at that time. Given the total reluctance of the ao and nao to go negative at all this entire winter and given the time frame, end of this month, beginning of March, stronger sun, I'm assuming IF that happens, that's all she wrote, game over, fat lady singing for us? Since such a pattern would not likely just be a few days and would be stable and not want to just breakdown and go back into a blocking meridional flow? I'm guessing odds are good the pattern changes because we will have been in this pattern now since about early January, it's somewhat hard to hold onto a regime for more than 6-8 weeks, I'm inclined to believe a change is coming the end of this month or early March but what that change is who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah, this is unprecedented in such a short period of time. BOS.jpg Worcester is only 50 miles NE of Windsor Locks & they've rec'd over 45" more snow in the past 2 weeks, crazy gradient I guess you can't complain with 41" for the season but when Worcester has 92" you have to feel a little bummed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Did you mean a different hour? Otherwise you kinda argued against your own point here.How do u figure? We've had the feb 17-19th thread open for 2 days now, making it a storm thread for a threat almost 10days away when it was originally started168 hrs is 7 days dude, you don't have to troll every post you read lol. Give it a rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 it is, but numerous seasonal predictions of epicosity gave everyone there (and everywhere) hope. That guy Cohen will never be believed again. And while the pattern has been epic in New England, nationally, it's been a fairly warm/tame winter. The cold has been largely confined to the Northeastern part of the country...models show it spreading south and west in time, but who knows if that will verify. Bust on the El Nino and -AO and -NAO. None of the holy 3 showed up thus the large scale bust outside of New England. (and even there, the 1st half of met winter largely sucked) Most of the correlations we utilize for long term forecasting have R values of approximately 0.65-0.75, sometimes 0.8 if you're lucky, but there's no guarantees. So the SAI would be expected to fail on occasion. Clearly though, something quite influential overrode the very favorable SAI indicator this year, and it's important to search for those other variables. I think it's a safer bet to use a number of indicators to produce an index forecast, and while hindsight is 20/20, there were a couple (IMO, important) variables which did argue against the -AO this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Worcester is only 50 miles NE of Windsor Locks & they've rec'd over 45" more snow in the past 2 weeks, crazy gradient I guess you can't complain with 41" for the season but when Worcester has 92" you have to feel a little bummed.... Yes, but there is a good explanation...Worcester Airport is on top of a hill at just under the 1000' elevation contour...Windsor Locks is in the CT River Valley not far from sea level...that makes a huge difference. Worcester's mean is just under 80"...Hartford / Bradley is a bit under 50"...so it is not really as crazy a discrepancy as one would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Sounds like accuweather is sniffing out winter ending sometime in March...they might be on to something. It's almost as if they have this guide that breaks down the year into roughly equivalent chunks, helping you figure out what the most likely weather might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes, but there is a good explanation...Worcester Airport is on top of a hill at just under the 1000' elevation contour...Windsor Locks is in the CT River Valley not far from sea level...that makes a huge difference. Worcester's mean is just under 80"...Hartford / Bradley is a bit under 50"...so it is not really as crazy a discrepancy as one would think. Moreover, with these offshore snowstorms...Worcester benefits tremendously as easterly winds are forced to ascend the Eastern New England Upland...thus maximizing orographic lift potential...those same winds come into Bradley Field as downslope...subject to compressional warming & drying, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Moreover, with these offshore snowstorms...Worcester benefits tremendously as easterly winds are forced to ascend the Eastern New England Upland...thus maximizing orographic lift potential...those same winds come into Bradley Field as downslope...subject to compressional warming & drying, Sort of similar process in Albany, the Berkshires and the Taconics...Albany does not have a huge problem with being sufficiently cold for snow in the dead of winter often...but with those aforementioned mountains to the east...they often sit in a so called snow shadow...this was painfully evident during the 12/12/1992 Nor'easter...which dumped 4 feet in the Berkshires & 7 inches in Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wow.....30 degree + temp increase/drop across many areas within 100 miles of each other coming : And just how low can we go around here ? : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wow.....30 degree + temp increase/drop across many areas within 100 miles of each other coming : And just how low can we go around here ? : That's scary cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcrae66 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Reposting here as this is more banter: Would anyone like to explain- in basic terms- how to read a 500mb map? I continue to hear things like 'set up looks much better at h5" but I don't really know what to look for to confirm that. If I am using tropical tidbits maps- what view am I looking at and what am I trying to compare on a surface map that would make the set up look "better" or "worse" at 500mb? Would love the answer to this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes, but there is a good explanation...Worcester Airport is on top of a hill at just under the 1000' elevation contour...Windsor Locks is in the CT River Valley not far from sea level...that makes a huge difference. Worcester's mean is just under 80"...Hartford / Bradley is a bit under 50"...so it is not really as crazy a discrepancy as one would think. Near 80" for Worcester?? According to NWS Box site the AVE is 64" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Would love the answer to this as well. I suggest perusing the Habyhints site at http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/. It takes an expensive and rigorous formal education in meteorology to fully understand 500 mb charts, but you can get a pretty good grasp of the basic concepts by reading the aforementioned webpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What are the chances that this verifies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What are the chances that this verifies? gfs_ptype_slp_florida_36.png Inverse to the amount of people on these forums who bought oj futures lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcrae66 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I suggest perusing the Habyhints site at http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/. It takes an expensive and rigorous formal education in meteorology to fully understand 500 mb charts, but you can get a pretty good grasp of the basic concepts by reading the aforementioned webpage. Thank you Julian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes, but there is a good explanation...Worcester Airport is on top of a hill at just under the 1000' elevation contour...Windsor Locks is in the CT River Valley not far from sea level...that makes a huge difference. Worcester's mean is just under 80"...Hartford / Bradley is a bit under 50"...so it is not really as crazy a discrepancy as one would think. Yeah, I grew up in the Worcester area and enjoyed a lot of good snowstorms there. Sure miss living there....esp. now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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