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Winter Banter Thread - Part 2


IsentropicLift

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It's funny. People that get that animated about Boston getting more then them should seriously

consider moving to a much more snow friendly region than DCA. But I think the bulk of the

anger is that the -AO never materialized that was expected after the October signal.

The El Nino was also too weak to help them much. But 40N and especially New England

can do very well on a +AO pattern. Even Islip is having an amazing snowy period that

began on 1-24.

I thought the October -ao signal would mean a negative ao winter...Wrong...DC did well in March last year and it could happen again this year...

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Well for you yes , the Long Island guys are not . You may want to sit this one out and not sh%$^& on it for those guys .

You're WAY too sensitive, one comment is certainly not Shi^#^*%# on it, and if by "it" your referring to the 1-3" potential then yes, I would concider harping over evey last model run for the next 2 days is beating a dead horse

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You're WAY too sensitive, one comment is certainly not Shi^#^*%# on it, and if by "it" your referring to the 1-3" potential then yes, I would concider harping over evey last model run for the next 2 days is beating a dead horse

There may be 2 to 4 on Long Island . Any snow on the coastal plain is good snow . 

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if I was younger I would love to see four feet of snow...But the hassles that come with it is to much for me...I need a car to get around and it was a problem with only 10" on the ground...I can't shovel to much because my back will give out...I live in an apartment now and park on the street...what I want won't effect what will happen...I'm rolling with the punches...I want snow but don't want to be isolated...

Yeah I agree...I also take care of my 100 year old father who lives about 3 miles from me and I worry about getting to him if need be....still I'm enjoying this winter...I like these moderate events and Im a big fan of the cold so I'm looking forward to the upcoming cold spell...temps have been well below normal since January and snowfall is above normal to date...good enough for me.

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Who cares if he's an icon, and many of us have known him for years, but its incredible that post is still up especially when considering the posts that have been deleted in the past. Mind boggling.

He was perma banned from euswx i think. Ill leave it at that for now, you know where to get the rest lol.

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Dca is such a bad spot for snow

it is, but numerous seasonal predictions of epicosity gave everyone there (and everywhere) hope.  That guy Cohen will never be believed again.  And while the pattern has been epic in New England, nationally, it's been a fairly warm/tame winter.  The cold has been largely confined to the Northeastern part of the country...models show it spreading south and west in time, but who knows if that will verify. Bust on the El Nino and -AO and -NAO.   None of the holy 3 showed up thus the large scale bust outside of New England. (and even there, the 1st half of met winter largely sucked)

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I thought the October -ao signal would mean a negative ao winter...Wrong...DC did well in March last year and it could happen again this year...

 

The strong Pacific blocking and record December/January +PDO provided enough cold to do better

in the snowfall department than we have usually done with such a persistent +AO pattern.

 

UW's Jan 2015 PDO value is +2.45. This is the 2nd consecutive monthly record high in 115-year dataset http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest 

 

 

If the Feb AO finishes positive, then here are the NYC snowfall totals for the years since 1950

with a +AO for Dec...Jan....Feb. Over 20" is already a big statistical win.

 

72-73....2.8"

74-75...13.1"

75-76...17.3"

88-89....8.1"

91-92...12.6"

92-93...24.5"

98-99...12.7"

99-00...16.3"

07-08....11.9"

14-15....NYC.....20.1"( low)......LGA....28.3"....so far

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Hopefully we get a hot summer! We did have any hot/humid weather last year. The summer nights were perfect

It was a great  summer, but it was boring for tracking much-little to no storms, no tropical activity, no heatwaves.  When the heat finally came around 9/1 no one cared it was over.

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It was a great summer, but it was boring for tracking much-little to no storms, no tropical activity, no heatwaves. When the heat finally came around 9/1 no one cared it was over.

Where I am at we had a hailstorm in May and that huge thunderstorm barrage that came in I think it was late June or early July.

I do particularly enjoy a summer thunderstorm especially in the evening as long as it's not too severe or threatening to property and life. Nothing better than sitting on the porch listening to the rainfall and watching the sky light up with the flashes.

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Hey guys, heard a rumor about a possible pattern breakdown at the end of February/start of March. Supposedly the pattern out west is showing signs of breaking down (+epo, +wpo, -pna/rna) and going into zonal and semifinal flow at that time. Given the total reluctance of the ao and nao to go negative at all this entire winter and given the time frame, end of this month, beginning of March, stronger sun, I'm assuming IF that happens, that's all she wrote, game over, fat lady singing for us? Since such a pattern would not likely just be a few days and would be stable and not want to just breakdown and go back into a blocking meridional flow?

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Heard it on another weather board. Also, accuweather just updated and is saying March is going to be an above normal month for us and nothing like last year. Saw the video just before. They are calling for a breakdown of the pattern at the beginning of March and said the long range models are showing this?

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The strong Pacific blocking and record December/January +PDO provided enough cold to do better

in the snowfall department than we have usually done with such a persistent +AO pattern.

 

UW's Jan 2015 PDO value is +2.45. This is the 2nd consecutive monthly record high in 115-year dataset http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest 

 

 

If the Feb AO finishes positive, then here are the NYC snowfall totals for the years since 1950

with a +AO for Dec...Jan....Feb. Over 20" is already a big statistical win.

 

72-73....2.8"

74-75...13.1"

75-76...17.3"

88-89....8.1"

91-92...12.6"

92-93...24.5"

98-99...12.7"

99-00...16.3"

07-08....11.9"

14-15....NYC.....20.1"( low)......LGA....28.3"....so far

the ao was mostly negative from 2/9-3/4/1993...most of the snow came after January that year...it's a similar mei enso year...the lowest ao came on March 2nd at -2.288...Before Feb. 9th the ao was even higher than this year...

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the ao was mostly negative from 2/9-3/4/1993...most of the snow came after January that year...it's a similar mei enso year...the lowest ao came on March 2nd at -2.288...Before Feb. 9th the ao was even higher than this year...

 

Yeah, Boston also did great in 92-93. It must be nice living in a place where you can do well on a +AO.

 

92-93....83.9"

14-15....77.3" so far

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Heard it on another weather board. Also, accuweather just updated and is saying March is going to be an above normal month for us and nothing like last year. Saw the video just before. They are calling for a breakdown of the pattern at the beginning of March and said the long range models are showing this?

fantasy range at this point.  Who knows.  I'm sure it will breakdown at some point, whether we get a reload is questionable at this stage.  However, several models such as the CFS2 and euro weekies suggest cold goes well into March

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Heard it on another weather board. Also, accuweather just updated and is saying March is going to be an above normal month for us and nothing like last year. Saw the video just before. They are calling for a breakdown of the pattern at the beginning of March and said the long range models are showing this?

Sounds like accuweather is sniffing out winter ending sometime in March...they might be on to something.   

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