MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Snoski needs a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 5:42 PM, Winter201415 said: Sometimes I'm at work and I don't have the actual early info like most on here The NCEP site and several third-party sites release graphics just as fast as (if not faster than) any subscription you'll find. If for some reason your workplace allows you to spend time on an internet forum, you can certainly go to weather.cod.edu or tropicaltidbits.com. That said, most professional forecasters don't sit at their computers and watch every model roll out in real time, so you and I definitely don't need "early" data. Quote and most models I can read but specifics are much harder for me. 99% of all "pbp" posts are vague interpretations of the most basic parameters, namely QPF, surface temps, and 500 mb heights. If by "specifics" you mean the snow forecast for your house, then I'm not sure why you wouldn't look for yourself and avoid the grief of trying to glean information from between the lines of other (often self-contradicting) interpretations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 5:11 PM, Juliancolton said: If we lived almost anywhere else in North America, nobody would notice 50-mile discrepancies between model analyses... we're just unlucky enough to live where virtually infinitesimal differences can change how (un)favorably a significant portion of the subforum view a model run. We need to split the forum. Send NYC and LI on there own and merge the rest of NJ and the LHV with Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 These posts need to be saved for remembrance in five days. On 2/5/2015 at 6:29 PM, IsentropicLift said: You can see where this is all headed. It's going to cut off and we're going to end up with the initial overrunning and the coastal. On 2/5/2015 at 6:38 PM, IsentropicLift said: Can we stop with all of the garbage posts about the trend North and the high being weaker...blah, blah, blah. The vort was more amplfied so it was able to dig more which caused the heights to rise ahead of it and slowed everything down. When that happens you're always going to warm the mid-levels unless some type of coastal can take over and flip winds back out of the northeast. The changes at H5 were huge. When you compare the day 4 panels to the 00z run it doesn't even look like the same model. We're probably two days minimum away from having the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 5:30 PM, forkyfork said: there is no reason to have PBP for models that are free for the public to view The best part is when you have two people doing them who can't even read a 500mb map. Gun to their head: Where's the trough and where is the ridge in this setup? Wrong. *Bang* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:41 PM, Superstorm93 said: The best part is when you have two people doing them who can't even read a 500mb map. Gun to their head: Where's the trough and where is the ridge in this setup? Wrong. *Bang* I'm sorry, are you trying to say that I don't know how to read a 500mb map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 5:31 PM, Winter201415 said: i disagree... This is a weather forum and for less experienced like myself I really find the pbp to be a learning tool... PBP was never a learning tool here. Four/five years ago we had real meteorologists doing play-by-plays and not some teenager on his school laptop. It was meant to diagnose run to run differences and help those who did not have access to the paid maps that everyone and their grandma now has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:45 PM, IsentropicLift said: I'm sorry, are you trying to say that I don't know how to read a 500mb map? Not at all You're one of the few that actually can do a very good job. It's the people that contradict and argue that muck everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:46 PM, Superstorm93 said: Not at all You probably should be one of the few that are actually allowed to do the PBPs. Ah, thanks, just making sure, since I'm usually the one doing it these days. I think we need a thread dedicated to Euro PBP where only the few of us that are qualified can post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 5:58 PM, Snow88 said: Snoski needs a break If the winter were to end now I'd be okay with it. We are close to our averages and we've seen plenty of cold and now snow cover. It's amazing how a couple weeks can erase an awful month and a half. So far this winter is on par with 08-09 and 12-13 which is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:48 PM, IsentropicLift said: Ah, thanks, just making sure, since I'm usually the one doing it these days. I think we need a thread dedicated to Euro PBP where only the few of us that are qualified can post. There should be a thread that uses the Stormtrack "method", where only reputable members are allowed to post information and everyone can watch it all play out. No clutter, no confusion, and no BS. When I'm at work and cant be near a computer I read these threads on tapatalk (and usually the PBP from Iso) to see how thing are progressing. To see five different opinions and a ton of arguing leaves me with no information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 3:32 PM, Snowshack said: Drama Queen came into the office this morning with an exasperated "I cant take any more of this snow". How quickly people forget that we were essentially shutout until 10 days ago. I've heard the same thing, the vast majority of this winter was snowless. But I have grown tired of it though, I generally prefer to have a couple of small (3-6") events as opposed to a single 15-25" storm that takes a while to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:56 PM, Superstorm93 said: There should be a thread that uses the Stormtrack "method", where only reputable members are allowed to post information and everyone can watch it all play out. No clutter, no confusion, and no BS. When I'm at work and cant be near a computer I read these threads on tapatalk (and usually the PBP from Iso) to see how thing are progressing. To see five different opinions and a ton of arguing leaves me with no information. People that have a little bit of knowledge are the worst. Now we have to sit through numerous posts about 850mb temps near Chicago, the lack of a -NAO and weak high pressure. Oh and lets not forget the sun angle comments that started yesterday. If the pattern slows down enough and we can get more consolidated energy in the base of the trough it's going be a huge game changer. Today's Euro was a big step towards that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The way everything trended so far this winter Boston might be to warm soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 7:10 PM, nycsnow said: The way everything trended so far this winter Boston might be to warm soon Yikes, at least you posted this in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 7:10 PM, IsentropicLift said: Yikes, at least you posted this in banter.Was half joking, when is everything fully sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 7:15 PM, nycsnow said: Was half joking, when is everything fully sampled? Friday night, so we probably have until the 12z runs on Saturday to get a major shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 5:31 PM, Winter201415 said: i disagree... This is a weather forum and for less experienced like myself I really find the pbp to be a learning tool... Not if most of what you are learning from it is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:48 PM, IsentropicLift said: Ah, thanks, just making sure, since I'm usually the one doing it these days. I think we need a thread dedicated to Euro PBP where only the few of us that are qualified can post. And who would that be? On 1/9/2015 at 6:07 PM, IsentropicLift said: Correct me if I'm wrong but I was told that the cause of the latent heat release was due to friction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:40 PM, IsentropicLift said: We need to split the forum. Send NYC and LI on there own and merge the rest of NJ and the LHV with Philly. Lump the LHV in with Philly? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 10:56 PM, Rjay said: Lump the LHV in with Philly? LolWell we could put the Poconos, LHV and NNJ together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm really not feeling this one for the immediate coast. I like to go with patterns based on what just happened. If it weren't for the surprise 4" powder band at the end it wasn't much of a storm 2.5" over to rain that nearly washed all the 2.5" away. You can really see the difference here in upper Manhattan. There is one hell of an ice crust over 4" of snow (only including the last storm). We have nothing of the sort on the south shore. We are already above our seasonal average so it hasn't been a total failure of a winter but I really think this one isn't for us. Inland guys enjoy seeing snow to Memorial Day (to quote that dude from last winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Trying to read the storm discussion thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 4:25 AM, Nibor said: Trying to read the storm discussion thread... The bickering is entertaining, though confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 7:18 PM, IsentropicLift said: Friday night, so we probably have until the 12z runs on Saturday to get a major shift.if by 12z sat no shift ...put a fork in it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 4:54 AM, NYCSNOWMAN2020 said: if by 12z sat no shift ...put a fork in it . I'm inclined to stick a fork in it now. With the exception of the blizzard that wasn't, this winter has been very disappointing. For us to get a big storm, it seems the models would have to show snow in Florida five days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 5:02 AM, Mophstymeo said: I'm inclined to stick a fork in it now. With the exception of the blizzard that wasn't, this winter has been very disappointing. For us to get a big storm, it seems the models would have to show snow in Florida five days out. Well not to "beat a dead horse" SO FAR THIS WINTER "many experts are right" without "TRUE BLOCKING" in place tough to get a good snowstorm. As of now Bronx around 25 inches of snow for season NYC just under that...if we get 10 more inches for the season so be it..Guess we all GOT spoiled with 40++ winters NYC... STILL at least 3 weeks of good snow chances for NYC/Coast in my mind, because YES we can get snow in MARCH but much rather snow NOW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 One more time http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-121.75721&lat=46.85022#.VNR6Icyvdok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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