IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Coastal is coming in colder. It snows for our area from Sunday through Tuesday. Great run. We get about 6 hours of moderate precip from the coastal, I wouldn't call that a great run. It's barely an inch LE in the city spread out over 72+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Less amplified than 06z and not even on the same planet as 00z. This is around the time period that the GFS will usually try and lose the storm. This run would be a major dissapointment. Most of the activity stays South of Philly until Monday night. Major dissapointment for who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 We get about 6 hours of moderate precip from the coastal, I wouldn't call that a great run. It's barely an inch LE in the city spread out over 72+ hours. Our area still get a foot of snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Coastal is coming in colder. It snows for our area from Sunday through Tuesday. Great run. Less amplified than 06z and not even on the same planet as 00z. This is around the time period that the GFS will usually try and lose the storm. This run would be a major dissapointment. Most of the activity stays South of Philly until Monday night. lol which one is it ?Looks to me like we do get a good amount of precip, but definitely spread out over time. Not exactly the type of setup you'd like to see if it was closer to the event I guess you could say though. This far out of course we all know truly anything can happen with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Major dissapointment for who? For anyone that was expecting a long duration event. This has a few periods of steadier snow with flurries or snow showers for 75% of the time. And Western areas are once again on the verge of missing out completely. Just eyeballing it TTN and PHL would completely miss the coastal. Hopefully the initial over running ends up a lot steadier than what the Euro and GFS are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 lol which one is it ?Looks to me like we do get a good amount of precip, but definitely spread out over time. Not exactly the type of setup you'd like to see if it was closer to the event I guess you could say though. This far out of course we all know truly anything can happen with it Any run that gives him snow is a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 3 HP arrive through the lakes during this period . 90 1036 126 1035 150 1032 . The colder Canadian has support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Any run that gives him snow is a great run. I have a very hard time believing that it would snow for 72 hours straight... just seems like a whacky solution by the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Any run that gives him snow is a great run. I'm relatively certain this is usually how it works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GFS verbatim still spits out a foot plus from EWR up to CT. Granted, I doubt it snows for 4 days, but if it's as cold as modeled, anything that falls sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The overrunning idea with the first wave has been trending weaker, there is no doubt the models are gradually headed for the idea of the back vort being the big dog and producing the coastal, I wouldn't rule out we lose the overrunning almost entirely within a day or two but this is a volatile setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Any run that gives him snow is a great run. What are you even talking about? NYC gets 12+ on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 For anyone that was expecting a long duration event. This has a few periods of steadier snow with flurries or snow showers for 75% of the time. And Western areas are once again on the verge of missing out completely. Just eyeballing it TTN and PHL would completely miss the coastal. Hopefully the initial over running ends up a lot steadier than what the Euro and GFS are showing. Oy, this is bad modelhugging here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 GFS verbatim still spits out a foot plus from EWR up to CT. Granted, I doubt it snows for 4 days, but if it's as cold as modeled, anything that falls sticks. That's because of the coastal, if that misses it would have been far less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 That's because of the coastal, if that misses it would have been far less. so whats the arguement. what matters is how much falls!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 can someone put up a snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 That's because of the coastal, if that misses it would have been far less. Still a fluid situation and 4-5 days out, so it's going to bounce around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 What are you even talking about? NYC gets 12+ on this run. And what if that coastal had been 50 miles southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 so whats the arguement. what matters is how much falls!!! We were getting the really high totals because of the strong overrunning from Sunday-Monday night. The coastal was just an added bonus. We're starting to lose the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 We were getting the really high totals because of the strong overrunning from Sunday-Monday night. The coastal was just an added bonus. We're starting to lose the overrunning. I'm not surprised at that. One of the two is not likely to work out in the end. Ain't going to snow for 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The coastal is pretty much offshore. so most would be from overunning on the gfs. But this looks like a light over running where you dont get the totals you think you would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 The 00z ECMWF had the coastal completely missing, if not for the stronger overruning it would have been a really bad run. The GFS on the other hand keeps most of that south of Philly. I just wouldn't count on that coastal making it onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It almost seems something will be totally different than what these models are showing. And with the way this season has gone (even though it rreally hasnt been that bad) things change last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 The coastal is pretty much offshore. so most would be from overunning on the gfs. But this looks like a light over running where you dont get the totals you think you would. Exactly, without the coastal you're talking pedestrian numbers spread out over several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z GGEM, light snow by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Lmao people arguing over 12z gfs 5days out smh Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Bit of a break Saturday night on the GGEM then more snow moving in Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 We get blasted by the overrunning on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 We get blasted by the overrunning on Sunday. Big differences already b/w the GFS and Canadian-won't be till Friday before we can really start to nail this one down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 The BL gets a little warm for the coast on Sunday night but 850's are cold. There might be another warm layer mixed in there. Could be a rain/snow mix for a bit. Heavy snow before that. Then south of 80 goes over to rain early Monday morning but we're about to dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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