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Late Weekend Storm Threat


IsentropicLift

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Good. I suggested a crew there and one in Bergen county. Btw foggy as hell at the shore right now and 36.

I have to think that precip is going to eventually nudge South.

 

The HRRR just shifted 100 miles south for 11z. Now has precip down to Mt. Holly area where previous run barely had anything into NJ.

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I have to think that precip is going to eventually nudge South.

The HRRR just shifted 100 miles south for 11z. Now has precip down to Mt. Holly area where previous run barely had anything into NJ.

Dayside will have crews scattered all over this is just for morning. Hopefully the drive home around 1 won't be awful. Radar is filling in somewhat over central pa. Didn't check the nam but did it have that precip over central pa now?

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The NAM is probably too dry but overall the QPF amounts don't look spectacular even in areas that were supposed to get fairly hard

 

At 10 PM on the night of the blizzard / non blizzard...as it was obvious the 2 foot totals it was still spitting out  for western sections were absurdly overdone...I wrote:

 

"Will the NAM ever be mentioned in polite company again?"

 

The worst model ever.

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Dayside will have crews scattered all over this is just for morning. Hopefully the drive home around 1 won't be awful. Radar is filling in somewhat over central pa. Didn't check the nam but did it have that precip over central pa now?

Not really, and it didn't really do a great job with the stuff near the NY/PA border either.

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Here's the bottom line, to me.  If you wake up tomorrow and it's sleeting or snowing, consider yourself lucky and trudge to work in whatever small amount of accumulation you have - can't imagine more than an inch or two anywhere (north obviously).  And if you wake up and it's not precipitating and everything looks dry, despite it being <32F, consider yourself very lucky.  

 

But if you wake up and it's raining and/or things look to be wet outside, odds are that's freezing rain falling and you're in for a skating rink - at least on untreated driveways, sidewalks and sidestreets (I imagine treated major roads should be fine) - with temps in the upper 20s likely for almost all of the NYC metro (even in Central Jersey).  Same applies later in the day...

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Warms the cockles of the heart to see those lads in Boston getting more snow. Poor fellas have really been suffering.

 

The only thing I am finding annoying is that I cannot find snow depths for BOS or ORH first order climo locations.   I kind of feel like LI has been getting Boston's hand-me downs, but that's not so bad because they have been throwing out a lot of good stuff.  And the styles are still current.

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We'd need the -NAO from hell to get that to happen again or get NYC 2 feet and BOS nothing. Good luck with that-NAO has been in hiding for 2+ years

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down to 25 here, went from 33 at 6pm down to 25....

Not going to happen this year. With the cold around and storms we will get one more warning event

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