Doorman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/geir304&width=640&height=480 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-west_goes-east.asp not wet yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I did write several times that that was the best spot in the CWA to make something out of this mess...being the NE most point in the CWA...might do ok with some luck out there...a good 40 miles to my ENE. You nailed that. Lots of sites on the north fork now at 28 - 29. Lower 30's farther west along the north shore and mid 30s NYC and a good chunk of NNJ. Down to 32 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Autocorrect or a takeoff on Carl Sandburg? You've been around almost as long as me; I remember you on the ne.weather newsgroup 20 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You nailed that. Lots of sites on the north fork now at 28 - 29. Lower 30's farther west along the north shore and mid 30s NYC and a good chunk of NNJ. Down to 32 here. Well, w/o the moisture not really getting us anywhere...just sort of spinning our wheels...maybe something will generate to our west overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Since this ones DOA for many of us, anyone up for starting a Poss Thursday Flurry thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 The 23z HRRR shows the activity in NE PA expanding some and making it to about Rt. 80 before lifting North again and another dry slot. But I have noticed that the HRRR has been slowly trending wetter. Primary precip type is ZR for NNJ and NYC and SN for Upstate NY and the North shore of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Update from Mt. Holly regarding tonight .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...630 PM ESTF UPDATE: LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FASTER NEAR I-95 ANDEXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY DOWN INTO COASTAL NNJ THROUGH THEI95 CORRIDOR TO PHL. WE EXPECT DRIZZLE OR RAIN TO DEVELOP NORTH OFTHE SHARPENING BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD THROUGH NJ ATTM. WET BULBSARE DROPPING ACROSS LI AND THE COLDER WET BULBS WILL BE NOTICED INNJ SOON. IF TEMPS ARE FREEZING AT SUNRISE KVAY TO KPHL...AND ITSNOT PRECIPITATING...THEN WE WILL HAVE LUCKED OUT. WE OPTED FOR THEMORE HAZARDOUS SCENARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 New Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Sorry auto correct lol and I'm at a shocking 25! I'm Even shocked I'm this cold right now..though not completely surprised lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Looks like a Kingston to Waterbury Ct out to E LI line for the boundary. Not too far from the NY border on 84. That's where the low level cold is coming SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 7:10PM update for Upton .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion -- MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MOST OF THE PRECIP REMAINS TO THE NORTH...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY INTO LONG ISLAND ATTM. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINTRY PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT. THE PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING IN TANDEM WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN AT THE COAST...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AN INCH OR TWO AT THE COAST...TO 4 TO 6 INCHES WELL INLAND. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SUB FREEZING AIR COMING IN AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WITH A WEAKENING H8 LOW TO THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH...WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM WRF DEPICTING VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TOMORROW... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND HAVE DROPPED SOME TEN DEGREES FROM EARLIER HIGHS WITH READINGS INTO THE TEENS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO A MORE NLY DIRECTION TONIGHT... THE COLD AIR WILL STEADILY FILTER SOUTH. PREFERENCE WAS TO GO BELOW MOS...WITH A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS WITH THE HIGH RES NAM WRF 2M TEMPS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND ICE IS THAT LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS ON AN INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 DOA? 18z Goofus paints .5"+ for much of northern NJ, and doesn't really have anything falling yet at this point. Go for a drive in central NJ- it's foggy as feck. The air is moist, we just need to put a little squeeze on it to get things to ice up. I think tomorrow is messy from Mercer-Monmouth north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 DOA? 18z Goofus paints .5"+ for much of northern NJ, and doesn't really have anything falling yet at this point. Go for a drive in central NJ- it's foggy as feck. The air is moist, we just need to put a little squeeze on it to get things to ice up. I think tomorrow is messy from Mercer-Monmouth north. Well the NWS certainly thinks that precip will be sagging south over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Over the last 45 minutes precip is exploding over the PA/NY border http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=bgm&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 At 5PM the 0 C isotherm @ 850 MB runs from about New London CT over to northern Westchester County...the 0 C line @ 925 MB runs from the N. Fork of LI over to Cos Cob CT...so the critical lines are very close to the area. At 7 PM it looks like it got a little colder @ 925 and a little warmer @ 850....they need to go in the same direction...down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Over the last 45 minutes precip is exploding over the PA/NY border http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=bgm&loop=yes Moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 New Update Yes! Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 How does Morristown sound for setting up a morning show live shot for ice coverage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 How does Morristown sound for setting up a morning show live shot for ice coverage?I think that looks great at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You've been around almost as long as me; I remember you on the ne.weather newsgroup 20 years ago.yup i remember ne.weather group those were the days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 yup i remember ne.weather group those were the days... The Iceman was the best...I learned a lot from him...even though he was a little way out...but very smart. One of the first people to really make me question my root assumptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 yup i remember ne.weather group those were the days...Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 The 00z NAM is bone dry for NYC and LI through hr 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I was on that way back in the beginning. There was a guy named Nor'easter I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Name is cold and dry...ugh. pounds Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This is going to bust badly in most areas except for BOS with the coastal front, even HFD and ORH probably will severely bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Wow I'm down to 23!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think that looks great at the moment Good. I suggested a crew there and one in Bergen county. Btw foggy as hell at the shore right now and 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 .1 barely gets to yanksfan..... .05 down to Philadelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 As I said yesterday...snow or no storm....very little icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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