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Late Weekend Storm Threat


IsentropicLift

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I did write several times that that was the best spot in the CWA to make something out of this mess...being the NE most point in the CWA...might do ok with some luck out there...a good 40 miles to my ENE.

 

 

 

 

You nailed that.  Lots of sites on the north fork now at 28 - 29.  Lower 30's farther west along the north shore and mid 30s NYC and a good chunk of NNJ. 

 

Down to 32 here.

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Autocorrect or a takeoff on Carl Sandburg?

 

You've been around almost as long as me; I remember you on the ne.weather newsgroup 20 years ago.

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You nailed that.  Lots of sites on the north fork now at 28 - 29.  Lower 30's farther west along the north shore and mid 30s NYC and a good chunk of NNJ. 

 

Down to 32 here.

 

 

Well, w/o the moisture not really getting us anywhere...just sort of spinning our wheels...maybe something will generate to our west overnight. 

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The 23z HRRR shows the activity in NE PA expanding some and making it to about Rt. 80 before lifting North again and another dry slot.

 

But I have noticed that the HRRR has been slowly trending wetter. Primary precip type is ZR for NNJ and NYC and SN for Upstate NY and the North shore of LI.

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Update from Mt. Holly regarding tonight

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF UPDATE: LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FASTER NEAR I-95 AND
EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY DOWN INTO COASTAL NNJ THROUGH THE
I95 CORRIDOR TO PHL. WE EXPECT DRIZZLE OR RAIN TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE SHARPENING BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD THROUGH NJ ATTM. WET BULBS
ARE DROPPING ACROSS LI AND THE COLDER WET BULBS WILL BE NOTICED IN
NJ SOON. IF TEMPS ARE FREEZING AT SUNRISE KVAY TO KPHL...AND ITS
NOT PRECIPITATING...THEN WE WILL HAVE LUCKED OUT. WE OPTED FOR THE
MORE HAZARDOUS SCENARIO.


 

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7:10PM update for Upton

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MOST OF THE PRECIP REMAINS TO THE NORTH...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY INTO LONG ISLAND ATTM. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINTRY PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT. THE PCPN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING IN TANDEM WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN AT THE COAST...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AN INCH OR TWO AT THE COAST...TO 4 TO 6 INCHES WELL INLAND. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SUB FREEZING AIR COMING IN AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WITH A WEAKENING H8 LOW TO THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH...WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM WRF DEPICTING VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TOMORROW... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND HAVE DROPPED SOME TEN DEGREES FROM EARLIER HIGHS WITH READINGS INTO THE TEENS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO A MORE NLY DIRECTION TONIGHT... THE COLD AIR WILL STEADILY FILTER SOUTH. PREFERENCE WAS TO GO BELOW MOS...WITH A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS WITH THE HIGH RES NAM WRF 2M TEMPS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND ICE IS THAT LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS ON AN INCH.

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DOA? 18z Goofus paints .5"+ for much of northern NJ, and doesn't really have anything falling yet at this point. Go for a drive in central NJ- it's foggy as feck. The air is moist, we just need to put a little squeeze on it to get things to ice up. I think tomorrow is messy from Mercer-Monmouth north.

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DOA? 18z Goofus paints .5"+ for much of northern NJ, and doesn't really have anything falling yet at this point. Go for a drive in central NJ- it's foggy as feck. The air is moist, we just need to put a little squeeze on it to get things to ice up. I think tomorrow is messy from Mercer-Monmouth north.

Well the NWS certainly thinks that precip will be sagging south over the next few hours.

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At 5PM the 0 C isotherm @ 850 MB runs from about New London CT over to northern Westchester County...the 0 C line @ 925 MB runs from the N. Fork of LI over to Cos Cob CT...so the critical lines are very close to the area.

 

At 7 PM it looks  like it got a little colder @ 925 and a little warmer @ 850....they need to go in the same direction...down.

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yup i remember ne.weather group those were the days...

 

The Iceman was the best...I learned a lot from him...even though he was a little way out...but very smart. One of the first people to really make me question my root assumptions. 

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