Joe4alb Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 38* and sleet in ISP, just to give you guys an idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Forecast and Map.....from the K of K.U. fame himself PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 329 PM EST SUN FEB 08 2015 VALID 00Z MON FEB 09 2015 - 00Z THU FEB 12 2015 DAYS 1 TO 2......NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE FIRST AREA OF SNOW AFFECTED NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THEPAST NIGHT AND MORNING WITH UP TO A HALF FOOT OF SNOW...THE NEXTBURST OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS NOW DEVELOPING FROM NEW YORK AGAINACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A LARGE VERY COLD CELLOF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TOFUNNEL VERY COLD AIR SOUTHWARD CREATING QUITE A FRONTAL ZONE OVERTHE MID ATLANTIC STATES SEPARATING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENSACROSS MASSACHUSETTS TO 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES OVER VIRGINIA.ALONG THIS PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSUREWILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCESBUT WITHIN THE CONFLUENT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET EXITINGNEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL WILL LAST ANOTHER 24 TO 30 HOURS FOLLOWING00Z WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL.HOWEVER...MESOSCALE BANDING IS ALREADY APPEARING ACROSS NEW YORKAND WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERNMASSACHUSETTS...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCAL SNOWFALLENHANCEMENTS...POSSIBLY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND ALONG THEUSUAL UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE WORCESTER HILLS/THE BERKSHIRES ANDTHE CATSKILLS. THERE IS A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN AFOOT OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS.GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL OCCURS ON DAY 1...A MULTI MODELBLEND WAS USED TO DERIVE THE INITIAL SNOWFALL GUESS BUT THEMAXIMUM SNOWFALL OF GREATER THAN 6 ADDITIONAL INCHES WAS CENTEREDFROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEWENGLAND.WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED TO THE NORTH...COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLYFUNNEL SOUTHWARD ALTHOUGH COOLING WILL BE SLOWER TO PROCEED ABOVETHE SURFACE MEANING THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUEFROM EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS NEW YORK CITY AND LONGISLAND...AND THEN COULD SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSSEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY AND EVENING NORTHEAST MARYLAND ANDDELAWARE. FOR MOST AREAS CURRENTLY QUITE MILD...THIS MAY BE ONLYA MINOR CONCERN BUT ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA/NORTHERN NEWJERSEY/NYC/LI AND SOUTHERN CT...IT COULD GET QUITE DICEY ASTEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS EVEN A LOWPROBABILITY THAT ICING EXCEEDING .25 INCHES WILL OCCUR PRIMARILYACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIABY DAY 2/TUESDAY MORNING...SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THEMID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLYACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. KOCIN http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 For my friends on LI. Expect light freezing rain and sleet changing to a little snow...c-2" Dangerous travel tomorrow. Thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 For my friends on LI. Expect light freezing rain and sleet changing to a little snow...c-2" Dangerous travel tomorrow. Thats about it. I thought there was going to more the other day...I guess I was wrong...nothing ever goes as planned, it seems. It is extremely sickening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 For my friends on LI. Expect light freezing rain and sleet changing to a little snow...c-2" Dangerous travel tomorrow. Thats about it. Sounds about right however I would up the higher side to 4" to account for any banding on the back end like we saw with the last storm. I think best guess is an 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I thought there was going to more the other day...I guess I was wrong...nothing ever goes as planned, it seems. It is extremely sickening. Sometimes these storms have surprises as you know as well as anyone. Who knows what will actually happen. The ceiling is 4" here IMO. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw just flurries. Still going with my above forecast though. The icing threat is real. While it won't be anything close to catastrophic, it most likely will lead to dangerous travel and many accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 No doubt there is serious shallow arctic air trying to bleed down here; 23 F at Providence...just 15 F at Boston....as long as a NE wind blows...you would think its got to work in. cold air's not the problem, no QPF.....radars's clean out to Erie, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Sounds about right however I would up the higher side to 4" to account for any banding on the back end like we saw with the last storm. I think best guess is an 1" Haha we are on the same page. See above post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 At 5PM the 0 C isotherm @ 850 MB runs from about New London CT over to northern Westchester County...the 0 C line @ 925 MB runs from the N. Fork of LI over to Cos Cob CT...so the critical lines are very close to the area. Just to let you all know, orient,ny 30 and dropping and it's sleeting and snowing moderately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Gfs shows boston getting 20+ inches on Thursday. Sigh. No it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Sometimes these storms have surprises as you know as well as anyone. Who knows what will actually happen. The ceiling is 4" here IMO. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw just flurries. Still going with my above forecast though. The icing threat is real. While it won't be anything close to catastrophic, it most likely will lead to dangerous travel and many accidents. I thought that big thermal contrast would have generated a lot more precipitation along the boundary...it seemed sound in theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Very little rain falling in fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just to let you all know, orient,ny 30 and dropping and it's sleeting and snowing moderately I did write several times that that was the best spot in the CWA to make something out of this mess...being the NE most point in the CWA...might do ok with some luck out there...a good 40 miles to my ENE. Well, probably not including Putnam & Orange & Rockland & N. Westchester Counties & the southern tier of CT...but I meant out of NYC, N. Jersey, and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I did write several times that that was the best spot in the CWA to make something out of this mess...being the NE most point in the CWA...might do ok with some luck out there...a good 40 miles to my ENE. Well, probably not including Putnam & Orange Counties... it's going to end there within the next 20-30 minutes looking at radar....not much behind this initial batch...got a light dusting here from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You know, I think everyone should stop trying to predict what they think will happen and actually report what is happening (nowcasting/observations). I could be way off here but I am not completely buying the lack of QPF being shown by some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 it's going to end there within the next 20-30 minutes looking at radar....not much behind this initial batch...got a light dusting here from it Has your town had a snowy winter? That's not far from Bridgeport, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Has your town had a snowy winter? That's not far from Bridgeport, right? we are at about 30 inches give or take, 25 of which has fallen since 1/24. I'm about 7 miles NW of BDR reporting station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You know, I think everyone should stop trying to predict what they think will happen and actually report what is happening (nowcasting/observations). I could be way off here but I am not completely buying the lack of QPF being shown by some of the models. It is a thread sort of dedicated to what we think will come to pass...so I think I'm in the right spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 we are at about 30 inches give or take, 25 of which has fallen since 1/24. I'm about 7 miles NW of BDR reporting station I had about 33 here...which is really very good for early February. I think some of these near misses make it seem like a less than satisfactory winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=tran&underlay=1&source=1# http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Surface Map zoom click any location you like http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 WWA extended down to Monmouth and Ocean Counties now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 cold air's not the problem, no QPF.....radars's clean out to Erie, PA Moisture would be coming in from the NW, not from Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 WWA extended down to Monmouth and Ocean Counties now. That's a very encouraging sign for the south shore of Long Island As our weather tends to be to pretty close to theirs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Moisture would be coming in from the NW, not from Erie. Current Radar looks like it's moving west to east. If that's the case, no one is going to see much overnight....if we can get it to sag south we might be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 My forecast low tonight is 28, I'm already at 28 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Deft meowing west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 My forecast low tonight is 28, I'm already at 28 lol How many of those 30 inches do you have left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Impossible to tell but allot! Drifts are huge still haven't seen any days above freezing maybe one or 2 days so far but barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Deft meowing west to east Littering and? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Deft meowing west to east Autocorrect or a takeoff on Carl Sandburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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