tmagan Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GEM-LAM total precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 The 4k NAM shows most of what falls as sleet. If that happens then it really will be a mostly non-event unless you're in the LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Can a met chime in as to why models are spitting out such little moisture with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 pl/rn mix now........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Can a met chime in as to why models are spitting out such little moisture with this system? If the gfs shows .50+ again do we go with it seeing it's been consistently showing that and it matches the eps? Also how's the Rgem look? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 How is there not so much moisture with this system, it's in the 50s near Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Latest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 How is there not so much moisture with this system, it's in the 50s near Philly I told you this was the issue three days ago. remember your reply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Latest... StormTotalSnowFcst.pngStormTotalIceFcst.pngStormTotalQPFFcst.png How bout these maps for all of NJ once in awhile? Thanx all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 How bout these maps for all of NJ once in awhile? Thanx all That is because those are the maps from the Upton (NYC NWS) office, they only forecast for the northeastern portion of NJ. You have to get the maps for the rest of NJ from the Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NWS office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Latest... StormTotalSnowFcst.png StormTotalIceFcst.png StormTotalQPFFcst.png Going with a sleet fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I told you this was the issue three days ago. remember your reply? Apparently the NWS is ignoring your three days old post and calling for ~0.5" around NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Latest... StormTotalSnowFcst.png StormTotalIceFcst.png StormTotalQPFFcst.png Wow significant jump south went from 1-2 to 4-6 bring it! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Lack of precip because the system is sheared out and the coastal sinking south will rob your moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Lack of precip because the system is sheared out and the coastal sinking south will rob your moisture.No, that doesn't explain why NE gets hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 1785 posts for intermittent light freezing drizzle over much of the area south of 80. /sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 No, that doesn't explain why NE gets hammered The low is right at our latitude, of course we aren't going to get a lot of precipitation. We're going to slot in this event. The heavier snows are always to the north of the low where the isentropic lift is maximized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 1785 posts for intermittent light freezing drizzle over much of the area south of 80. /sighSuch a terrible post. Go cry elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 The low is right at our latitude, of course we aren't going to get a lot of precipitation. We're going to slot in this event. The heavier snows are always to the north of the low where the isentropic lift is maximized.Yes but in this case the low goes out over the MA and the mid level Cyclones over SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 1785 posts for intermittent light freezing drizzle over much of the area south of 80. /sigh Bingo. The writing has been on the wall for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yes but in this case the low goes out over the MA and the mid level Cyclones over SNJ. The low starts out pretty far north over SW PA. How many times has NYC gotten a major snowfall with a low over Pennsylvania? Also, the upper levels are very weak...there isn't a lot of vorticity so you're not going to see a powerful storm. Just a pitiful set-up at H5 for the area. I also think the forecasts for New England are going to bust. A lot of the offices like BTV and BOX have already been lowering amounts systematically. Boston might get smoked by the coastal front but I'm not seeing a widespread 12-18" except for high-elevation areas that upslope on east winds. Long duration light precipitation is pretty terrible for valley locales especially near the coast where boundary layer temperatures are near or above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Pouring a mix of sleet and freezing rain here at the moment. Maybe a surprise or two will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 The low starts out pretty far north over SW PA. How many times has NYC gotten a major snowfall with a low over PennsylvaniaAlso, the upper levels are very weak...there isn't a lot of vorticity so you're not going to see a powerful storm. Just a pitiful set-up at H5 for the area. I also think the forecasts for New England are going to bust. A lot of the offices like BTV and BOX have already been lowering amounts systematically. Boston might get smoked by the coastal front but I'm not seeing a widespread 12-18" except for high-elevation areas that upslope on east winds. Long duration light precipitation is pretty terrible for valley locales especially near the coast where boundary layer temperatures are near or above freezing. Well I'm not really referring to snow. The setup looks prime for a lot of ice but the precip just isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Well I'm not really referring to snow. The setup looks prime for a lot of ice but the precip just isn't there. Well its there, except for the Op Euro and NAM every other model has relatively significant precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The low starts out pretty far north over SW PA. How many times has NYC gotten a major snowfall with a low over Pennsylvania? Also, the upper levels are very weak...there isn't a lot of vorticity so you're not going to see a powerful storm. Just a pitiful set-up at H5 for the area. I also think the forecasts for New England are going to bust. A lot of the offices like BTV and BOX have already been lowering amounts systematically. Boston might get smoked by the coastal front but I'm not seeing a widespread 12-18" except for high-elevation areas that upslope on east winds. Long duration light precipitation is pretty terrible for valley locales especially near the coast where boundary layer temperatures are near or above freezing. Some of the better analysis I've seen here... The low is right at our latitude, of course we aren't going to get a lot of precipitation. We're going to slot in this event. The heavier snows are always to the north of the low where the isentropic lift is maximized. What is known as the area of greatest vertical motion...where the bulk of the precip is created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 GFS so far is a tick warmer aloft and at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Some of the better analysis I've seen here... What is known as the area of greatest vertical motion...where the bulk of the precip is created. It was a good post, but the snow ship sailed days ago. We're mainly talking about sleet and freezing rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 The GFS is drier overnight, could just be the case of timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 By 6am Monday surface temps are below 32 to Phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Nope, GFS is ticking North to get into better agreement with the Euro and the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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