IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Canadian is also a very long duration event. Yes, precip from Sunday to Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 What's the 0z Euro show for the weekend?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 What's the 0z Euro show for the weekend?? Great hit from NYC northward with the overrunning. Long duration overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Great hit from NYC northward with the overrunning. Long duration overrunning event. hmmm,,,im wondering if central nj is south of the big frozen stuff again according to euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Great hit from NYC northward with the overrunning. Long duration overrunning event.[/quote Gfs snowmap is ridiculous obv overdone but 24" is nice to look at for nnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Euro has snow for the NYC area from hour 99-162. About 30 hours of moderate snow also lol.All of the snow is from the overrunning. It formed a coastal but it just missed to the south. Imagine if the coastal rode right up the coast. Wow, the totals would have been huge. Overrunning + Coastal . Great potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Euro has snow for the NYC area from hour 99-162. About 30 hours of moderate snow also lol.All of the snow is from the overrunning. It formed a coastal but it just missed to the south. Imagine if the coastal rode right up the coast. Wow, the totals would have been huge. Overrunning + Coastal . Great potential. Very excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 This is just silly. We'll probably see the vort consolidate over the next couple of days as the Pacific vort comes into a better sampling region later this week. Snows from Sunday to Tuesday and wind up with a significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 hmmm,,,im wondering if central nj is south of the big frozen stuff again according to euro All snow Monmouth on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Not at all. We are dealing with an arctic high up north, overrunning to a coastal is now showing up on the models. GGEM has a 1042 high up north. And it pulls away as the coastal begins to develop. Fail. A storm delayed is a storm denied....we either need things to develop faster or we need to really count on overrunning OR we need the coastal to bomb. We will have to watch for these in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 All snow Monmouth on north nice. looks like precip issues on the 6zgfs. could turn out to be quite the mess for a long duration it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 And it pulls away as the coastal begins to develop. Fail. A storm delayed is a storm denied....we either need things to develop faster or we need to really count on overrunning OR we need the coastal to bomb. We will have to watch for these in future runs. Cold air is there on the euro and eps for the coastal let's just ignore that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Still a long way away but definitely hope that crazy ice storm depiction does not verify! Would certainly prefer rain to that with snow of course on the top of the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I would not worry about this being a big FZRA event in this area, sleet would be more likely and the 2nd half of the event the high is pulling out so it would be highly unlikely we see anything but snow or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Just for fun I checked the text outputs for the 00z GFS at MMU, EWR and LGA. Almost all of the non-snow precip fell as sleet. In fact over 1.00" LE fell as sleet at MMU. The 06z GFS flipped everyone from snow right over to rain, except for HPN which had about 12 hours of freezing rain with temps hovering just below freezing. SWF stayed almost all snow with some sleet at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Just for fun I checked the text outputs for the 00z GFS at MMU, EWR and LGA. Almost all of the non-snow precip fell as sleet. In fact over 1.00" LE fell as sleet at MMU. The 06z GFS flipped everyone from snow right over to rain, except for HPN which had about 12 hours of freezing rain with temps hovering just below freezing. SWF stayed almost all snow with some sleet at the end. 0Z GFS wasn't terrible for you guys. Philly, on the other hand saw .75 qpf of ZR. Now that's terrifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 0Z GFS wasn't terrible for you guys. Philly, on the other hand saw .75 qpf of ZR. Now that's terrifying KPNE was actually 0.63" as IP and 0.55" as ZR. Most of that falling with surface temps in the low 20's so it would be pretty bad but not terrifying. Now if you want to go KPHL, it had 0.20" as IP and 1.06" as ZR. Most of that falling with temps in the mid-upper 20's. That's probably the worst site I can find. The 06z GFS was nothing like that, only 0.37" as IP and 0.04" as ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I know it's way too early for a definitive answer, but how much snow are the models showing for the NYC area thus far, or at least the medium amount from the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I know it's way too early for a definitive answer, but how much snow are the models showing for the NYC area thus far, or at least the medium amount from the models? Tough to say, but from what I am seeing anywhere from 5-10", then mix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Top analogs over the east at 120hrs from 00z 2/4 #1) 1/7/1994 #2) 1/14/1999 #3) 12/30/1989 #4) 2/9/1994 #5) 1/6/2005 #6) 1/13/1993 #7) 2/1/2011 #8) 2/15/1990 #9) 2/21/1993 #10) 2/3/1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Top analogs over the east at 120hrs from 00z 2/4 #1) 1/7/1994 #2) 1/14/1999 #3) 12/30/1989 #4) 2/9/1194 #5) 1/6/2005 #6) 1/13/1993 #7) 2/1/2011 #8) 2/15/1990 #9) 2/21/1993 #10) 2/3/1990 January 7, 1994 was a terrible ice storm for many. I lived in Philly and the entire city was shut completely down. Unmitigated disaster. Some other notable storms on there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's very 2/8-2/11 94 looking, long duration initial overrunning followed by another stronger vort developing a low a day or two later. The difference is that 94 had another stronger arctic high behind the first one, this event doesn't, so the 2nd part of the event may not be all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 The GFS will be running soon, we'll see if it leaves the ice storm on the table or not, 06z trended warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I thought of that Jan '99 storm. I was in Boston - crazy, crazy event. Was 7 deg with mod/heavy snow at night (coldest I've seen substantial snow in Boston) and was in the 40s with heavy rain the next day. The streets just pretty much split open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The front stalls to our south with waves riding it on the GFS. Light snow from hour 84 - 126 with the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Light over running snows Saturday night into Sunday morning on the 12z GFS. Most of the activity stays South through Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Steadier activity moves north on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Coastal is coming in colder. It snows for our area from Sunday through Tuesday. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Less amplified than 06z and not even on the same planet as 00z. This is around the time period that the GFS will usually try and lose the storm. This run would be a major dissapointment. Most of the activity stays South of Philly until Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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