The Plowsman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I can hear them here too. First time this year. As much as I love snow there is always a great feeling when you see things starting to come back to life.Love the white gold also, but if its gonna taint, it ain't, so bring on the jeep topless weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 We have heard this tune many many times. Model ends up verifying for the most part. Bad solutions always seem to verify...you never see a rainstorm go "out to sea." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Bad solutions always seem to verify...you never see a rainstorm go "out to sea." Good point, but It's because of hopes and expectations we call them "bad" or "good". The weather is what it is and will do what it does regardless of human thought or emotion. We all know that obviously, but it is worth stating to hone in on the relevance of our filtering minds. I'm sure rainstorms are a miss at times, but people hardly remember because they do not care. Emotional weight leads to greater cognitive saliency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 At least they will get a jump on salting and sanding for this event since it is well advertised. The surprise Sunday morning freezing rain event a few weeks back didn't leave any time to treat the roads ahead of time. But there will still be untreated areas that lead to dangerous walking and driving. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjqicQdnqDk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Good point, but It's because of hopes and expectations we call them "bad" or "good". The weather is what it is and will do what it does regardless of human thought or emotion. We all know that obviously, but it is worth stating to hone in on the relevance of our filtering minds. I'm sure rainstorms are a miss at times, but people hardly remember because they do not care. Emotional weight leads to greater cognitive saliency.This. Rainstorms miss as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 At least they will get a jump on salting and sanding for this event since it is well advertised. The surprise Sunday morning freezing rain event a few weeks back didn't leave any time to treat the roads ahead of time. But there will still be untreated areas that lead to dangerous walking and driving. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjqicQdnqDk There's already a ton of residual salt on the roads & temps are much warmer going into this event so wouldn't expect anything close to that kind of disruption this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 12z RGEM, now in its deadly range, is colder, keeps possibility for a big time winter storm...still snowing at 48 hours...much freezing rain & sleet (not shown)...like Lee Van Cleef once said, "I knew that ____ was alive." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Gfs remains cold and wet for tomorrow...commute looks ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 City goes over to snow around mid morning... Decent amount of snow for city and jersey this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Gfs remains cold and wet for tomorrow...commute looks ugly how long does it last? How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Gfs remains cold and wet for tomorrow...commute looks uglydetails? Over 1 qpf? Some snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Qpf .25 down to Phl and .50 to 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Lots of sleet this run...warm layer still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 either way its going to be a horrible commute...the euro and its .25 qpf is going to be underdone like it is always is with these situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 For those travelling btwn between NYC and Long Island tonight will the going be icy? When does the icy conditions start for NYC/LI? How much ice accretion for NYC/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 either way its going to be a horrible commute...the euro and its .25 qpf is going to be underdone like it is always is with these situations Not looking at the verification scores; ECWMF was one of the worst this winter...it was not good on most of the big events...unreal on the 1/26/15 one...even messed up December... I remember they did an "upgrade" to it a couple years ago...and it was never the same again...if it ain't broke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 12z RGEM, now in its deadly range, is colder, keeps possibility for a big time winter storm...still snowing at 48 hours...much freezing rain & sleet (not shown)...like Lee Van Cleef once said, "I knew that ____ was alive." I just looked through the past couple runs, and it's been ticking slightly cooler for the past 3 runs. This is the least amount of plain rain I've seen yet from this model on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 48 hr 12z rgem 48 hr 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I just looked through the past couple runs, and it's been ticking slightly cooler for the past 3 runs. This is the least amount of plain rain I've seen yet from this model on LI Its interesting to see the heavier green area on the snow map edge down to the Port Jeff area on the latest snow map...it was in the Sound or over the CT coast in previous runs...its getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 48 hr 12z rgem image.jpg 48 hr 12z GFS image.jpg RGEM shows 6 or more even for the LHV I am not so sure we can make that but I guess you never know. 2-5 possibly still sticking with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 There's already a ton of residual salt on the roads & temps are much warmer going into this event so wouldn't expect anything close to that kind of disruption this time around. Residual salt will be largely washed away by the initial rain and antecedent temps are way overrated. If it's below 32F, ground temps will reach equilibrium with the air temps pretty quickly (less than an hour), especially at night time, with no solar warming of darker, paved surfaces, and freezing rain will then accrete on all surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Update from Upton at 1025. 000 FXUS61 KOKX 081525 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1025 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion -- A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS WEEK. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. HIGHS HAVE LIKELY BEEN REACHED TODAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN E/NE FLOW. SIMILAR TO 24H AGO THERE ARE RADAR RETURN ACROSS EASTERN PA WORKING EAST THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN THIS AFT. MOST OF THIS THOUGH SEEMS TO BE DRYING OUT BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON OBS. WEAK LIFT FROM OVERRUNNING WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY. A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS OR STALLS AND THE COLDER AIR DOES NOT YET FILTER TO LONG ISLAND. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A THE FRONT AND COLDER AIR DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. INLAND THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUES. WHILE AT THE COAST MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA BEGINNING AT 05Z WITH THE PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE LIKELY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE INLAND...MAINLY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION...SO NOT QUITE REACHING THE 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING. ALSO ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDER THE HALF INCH CRITERIA. ALONG THE COAST THE MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT LATE MONDAY NIGH THE PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE COAST WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. TOTAL ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ADVISORY LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SO FOR NOW THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORIES IS 11Z TUESDAY...OR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IF THE LOW IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT...THE ADVISORIES FOR THE EASTERN ZONES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS RUNNING 5-8 DEGREES BELOW AVG. NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THEN PASSING OFF THE COAST ON FRI...WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS JUST S OF LONG ISLAND THU AFTERNOON AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION E OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT. HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCE POP FCST MAINLY FOR ERN CT/LONG ISLAND...AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ALOFT RIGHT OVER THE AREA AND A POTENTIAL FOR GREATER SNOWFALL. EXPECT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH LOWS BOTH THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT 0 TO 5 BELOW INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND HIGHS ON FRI ONLY 10-15 NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WELL INLAND. SUSTAINED NW WINDS 10-15 MPH THU NIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH THESE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS FRIGID BLAST SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A 10-DEGREE MODERATION TAKING PLACE BY SAT...WITH HIGHS 20-25 WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW AVG. IT MAY WELL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRIGID BLAST JUST BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Residual salt will be largely washed away by the initial rain and antecedent temps are way overrated. If it's below 32F, ground temps will reach equilibrium with the air temps pretty quickly (less than an hour), especially at night time, with no solar warming of darker, paved surfaces, and freezing rain will then accrete on all surfaces. most of the main roads will have no problem tomorrow morning ( except for untreated bridges )as the combo of residual salt left over warmth from the last couple of days and borderline temps with additional salt being put down - the problem is with some less traveled side roads - sidewalks - steps and frozen windshields and doors etc etc - wont be be as bad as last Monday morning although if it is icy in the AM instead of delayed openings for schools they might just shut down for the day because its going to get icier and snowier as the day wears on especially in the suburbs....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 For those concerned about the lack of precip from the nam....the temp gradient across nj is ridiculous. ACY sitting in the mid to upper 50s while the metro is in the mid 30s. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 most of the main roads will have no problem tomorrow morning ( except for untreated bridges )as the combo of residual salt left over warmth from the last couple of days and borderline temps with additional salt being put down - the problem is with some less traveled side roads - sidewalks - steps and frozen windshields and doors etc etc - wont be be as bad as last Monday morning although if it is icy in the AM instead of delayed openings for schools they might just shut down for the day because its going to get icier and snowier as the day wears on especially in the suburbs....... warmth? What warmth? Hasn't been to freezing except today. Ground is frozen a foot thick in places depending on your location of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 UPTON just updated there maps but I can't tell if there different from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 closer up euro2-9.png Apparently it has a big storm in here somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Closer up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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