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Late Weekend Storm Threat


IsentropicLift

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  On 2/8/2015 at 4:00 AM, jm1220 said:

0.25" or so liquid isn't a disasterous icestorm, it's enough to cause tons of driving headaches but won't destroy infrastructure like over half an inch will.

 

This run of the GFS is pretty wet...probably greater than 0.75" for the City & Island.

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  On 2/8/2015 at 3:59 AM, jm1220 said:

I also got 2 calls today from my parents asking me what's happening on Monday. :axe:

 

They tell me every chance they get how much they want to trade places with me down here, because "you love this snowy/icy/cold s**t".

Tell them they should try living in Boston or anywhere in interior NE right now...

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  On 2/8/2015 at 4:00 AM, jm1220 said:

0.25" or so liquid isn't a disasterous icestorm, it's enough to cause tons of driving headaches but won't destroy infrastructure like over half an inch will.

Fair enough. After the small amount of ice we had a few weeks back I'm weary. The problems here in Bergen county were ridiculous. First responders couldn't get to 911 calls because of the ice. Plus there's a salt "shortage" here.

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  On 2/8/2015 at 4:03 AM, PSUHazletonWx said:

Tell them they should try living in Boston or anywhere in interior NE right now...

Ehh, tons of snow are manageable. An icestorm (as I witnessed in State College more than once) can be more debilitating than anything. Despite the media covering Boston to no end early this week because they had so much more snow, the ice around NYC had just as much or more impact. It made it just above freezing across much of LI and lots of rain fell, then temps plunged into the 20s and freezing rain fell, then 3-4" of snow in 90 minutes. My town had accidents everywhere and my parents got a call from the county executive begging people to stay off the roads because of the huge number of accidents. The Long Beach FD was stretched to the limit that entire day clearing accidents off the road. Luckily no one was killed and there were no big power losses (the weak infrastructure was cleared post-Sandy so tree/power line damage in my town has been limited since then). 

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  On 2/8/2015 at 4:06 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

The biggest pain in this event will be if anyone really does change to rain for 3-4 hours Monday afternoon, I think only ERN LI will, despite the RGEM and GFS show NYC going to rain still

If it's a NE wind, I don't see how anyone outside the Twin Forks goes to rain. It's all snowcovered land, a tiny strip of the LI Sound which is in the 30s, and no warm air source of any kind. The GFS/GGEM are also notoriously bad with surface temps.

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  On 2/8/2015 at 4:08 AM, jm1220 said:

Ehh, tons of snow are manageable. An icestorm (as I witnessed in State College more than once) can be more debilitating than anything. Despite the media covering Boston to no end early this week because they had so much more snow, the ice around NYC had just as much or more impact. It made it just above freezing across much of LI and lots of rain fell, then temps plunged into the 20s and freezing rain fell, then 3-4" of snow in 90 minutes. My town had accidents everywhere and my parents got a call from the county executive begging people to stay off the roads because of the huge number of accidents. The Long Beach FD was stretched to the limit that entire day clearing accidents off the road. Luckily no one was killed and there were no big power losses (the weak infrastructure was cleared post-Sandy so tree/power line damage in my town has been limited since then).

In addition to being a rescue Swimmer, I work for Suffolk as a medic. The roads were horrific Monday and we were backed up with calls. Driving was beyond treacherous and getting to emergency calls was painstakingly slow. If we get over . 5" of ice, well let's put it this way, Suffolk OEM is concerned already.
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  On 2/8/2015 at 4:10 AM, jm1220 said:

If it's a NE wind, I don't see how anyone outside the Twin Forks goes to rain. It's all snowcovered land, a tiny strip of the LI Sound which is in the 30s, and no warm air source of any kind. The GFS/GGEM are also notoriously bad with surface temps.

 

Its right around 060 on the GFS, thats the cutoff usually, anything from that and east changes over but I've seen the GFS show an 060 wind many times that verifies at 030

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  On 2/8/2015 at 4:15 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

Goodness, the soundings at JFK and LGA are night and day, both surface and aloft, shows how tight this is...at 15Z JFK is like 36 and LGA is 27, at 850 they differ by about 2 degrees as well.

im going to go out on a limb and say this 9 degree difference doesn't verify

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  On 2/8/2015 at 4:18 AM, GD0815 said:

im going to go out on a limb and say this 9 degree difference doesn't verify

It shows how tight a gradient, like last week, it's going to be. The low level cold is normally underestimated by models, so it will likely verify colder at jfk, however, the line will be tight.
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  On 2/8/2015 at 4:13 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

Its right around 060 on the GFS, thats the cutoff usually, anything from that and east changes over but I've seen the GFS show an 060 wind many times that verifies at 030

I would think a developing offshore low would pivot winds around to more of a NNE direction, like the NAM has it. I just have a hard time thinking the vast majority of the area goes to plain rain with such a cold airmass just north and northerly winds. And we just saw an outcome with more northerly winds than models had them, and therefore tons of ice for NYC and the coast and then the backend snow blitz.

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  On 2/8/2015 at 4:20 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

With that sort of high to the north, probably not, the 00Z NAM MOS never had either station going over 31-32 and also has winds 020-040

dont get me wrong, we have all seen jfk rain and lga snow, but with this setup and that extreme difference, it just doesn't seem likely

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  On 2/8/2015 at 4:06 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

The biggest pain in this event will be if anyone really does change to rain for 3-4 hours Monday afternoon, I think only ERN LI will, despite the RGEM and GFS show NYC going to rain still

Monday event showed rain,epically eastern long island...that didn't occur, cold air will likely funnel down Connecticut river valley's

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