listarz Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 What's it showing for LI? Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 early look. very bad ice storm nw nj and bergen county. qpf over an inch..wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 So strange, hr 30 brings the mixing further north than the 18z but then at hour 36 mixing line is further south than 18z and heavier precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 850mb low on the GFS again takes a poor track, and the coastal low looks disjointed and weak. Lots of showery sleet/ZR on this run it looks like south of the Westchester County border. Big time travel headaches on Monday areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Guess you cannot get Long Beach out of your system! I also got 2 calls today from my parents asking me what's happening on Monday. They tell me every chance they get how much they want to trade places with me down here, because "you love this snowy/icy/cold s**t". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 If you want an ice storm this GFS run is it. Looks pretty disastrous. 0.25" or so liquid isn't a disasterous icestorm, it's enough to cause tons of driving headaches but won't destroy infrastructure like over half an inch will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 early look. very bad ice storm nw nj and bergen county. qpf over an inch..wow. The cold layer should be thick enough north of the city for sleet based on soundings. So maybe some icing and a few inches of sleet/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 0.25" or so liquid isn't a disasterous icestorm, it's enough to cause tons of driving headaches but won't destroy infrastructure like over half an inch will. This run of the GFS is pretty wet...probably greater than 0.75" for the City & Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I also got 2 calls today from my parents asking me what's happening on Monday. They tell me every chance they get how much they want to trade places with me down here, because "you love this snowy/icy/cold s**t". Tell them they should try living in Boston or anywhere in interior NE right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This run of the GFS is pretty wet... I agree, for those that do see snow have 3-5 on the ground by 12z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 need soundings, but when I look at the 0 z gfs, from bergen county NW is looks like we get the worst ice storm with sleet in 5 years. QPF is near an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 0.25" or so liquid isn't a disasterous icestorm, it's enough to cause tons of driving headaches but won't destroy infrastructure like over half an inch will. Fair enough. After the small amount of ice we had a few weeks back I'm weary. The problems here in Bergen county were ridiculous. First responders couldn't get to 911 calls because of the ice. Plus there's a salt "shortage" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 clownmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The biggest pain in this event will be if anyone really does change to rain for 3-4 hours Monday afternoon, I think only ERN LI will, despite the RGEM and GFS show NYC going to rain still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 According to GFS, by early Monday afternoon some spots are borderline 8+" Western orange county and points north, including NE PA and it's still snowing good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 need soundings, but when I look at the 0 z gfs, from bergen county NW is looks like we get the worst ice storm with sleet in 5 years. QPF is near an inch. Essex Union County? We barely get sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Tell them they should try living in Boston or anywhere in interior NE right now... Ehh, tons of snow are manageable. An icestorm (as I witnessed in State College more than once) can be more debilitating than anything. Despite the media covering Boston to no end early this week because they had so much more snow, the ice around NYC had just as much or more impact. It made it just above freezing across much of LI and lots of rain fell, then temps plunged into the 20s and freezing rain fell, then 3-4" of snow in 90 minutes. My town had accidents everywhere and my parents got a call from the county executive begging people to stay off the roads because of the huge number of accidents. The Long Beach FD was stretched to the limit that entire day clearing accidents off the road. Luckily no one was killed and there were no big power losses (the weak infrastructure was cleared post-Sandy so tree/power line damage in my town has been limited since then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The biggest pain in this event will be if anyone really does change to rain for 3-4 hours Monday afternoon, I think only ERN LI will, despite the RGEM and GFS show NYC going to rain still If it's a NE wind, I don't see how anyone outside the Twin Forks goes to rain. It's all snowcovered land, a tiny strip of the LI Sound which is in the 30s, and no warm air source of any kind. The GFS/GGEM are also notoriously bad with surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Ehh, tons of snow are manageable. An icestorm (as I witnessed in State College more than once) can be more debilitating than anything. Despite the media covering Boston to no end early this week because they had so much more snow, the ice around NYC had just as much or more impact. It made it just above freezing across much of LI and lots of rain fell, then temps plunged into the 20s and freezing rain fell, then 3-4" of snow in 90 minutes. My town had accidents everywhere and my parents got a call from the county executive begging people to stay off the roads because of the huge number of accidents. The Long Beach FD was stretched to the limit that entire day clearing accidents off the road. Luckily no one was killed and there were no big power losses (the weak infrastructure was cleared post-Sandy so tree/power line damage in my town has been limited since then).In addition to being a rescue Swimmer, I work for Suffolk as a medic. The roads were horrific Monday and we were backed up with calls. Driving was beyond treacherous and getting to emergency calls was painstakingly slow. If we get over . 5" of ice, well let's put it this way, Suffolk OEM is concerned already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 so it looks fairly set in stone chances of New York seeing a snowstorm are very limited at this point. Where did the 4 to 6 inches the GFS WAS showing earlier though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 If it's a NE wind, I don't see how anyone outside the Twin Forks goes to rain. It's all snowcovered land, a tiny strip of the LI Sound which is in the 30s, and no warm air source of any kind. The GFS/GGEM are also notoriously bad with surface temps. Its right around 060 on the GFS, thats the cutoff usually, anything from that and east changes over but I've seen the GFS show an 060 wind many times that verifies at 030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 According to GFS, by early Monday afternoon some spots are borderline 8+"Western orange county and points north, including NE PA and it's still snowing good[/quote Still looks like 4 to 6 on CT coast. Prolly lots of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Goodness, the soundings at JFK and LGA are night and day, both surface and aloft, shows how tight this is...at 15Z JFK is like 36 and LGA is 27, at 850 they differ by about 2 degrees as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 little sc Essex Union County? We barely get sleet here. yup. scary the 0 z gfs dropped this booty. Crushed south vermont. will send photos. expect ice storm warnings if the 6 z shows the same from begren north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Goodness, the soundings at JFK and LGA are night and day, both surface and aloft, shows how tight this is...at 15Z JFK is like 36 and LGA is 27, at 850 they differ by about 2 degrees as well. im going to go out on a limb and say this 9 degree difference doesn't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 im going to go out on a limb and say this 9 degree difference doesn't verifyIt shows how tight a gradient, like last week, it's going to be. The low level cold is normally underestimated by models, so it will likely verify colder at jfk, however, the line will be tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 im going to go out on a limb and say this 9 degree difference doesn't verify With that sort of high to the north, probably not, the 00Z NAM MOS never had either station going over 31-32 and also has winds 020-040 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Its right around 060 on the GFS, thats the cutoff usually, anything from that and east changes over but I've seen the GFS show an 060 wind many times that verifies at 030 I would think a developing offshore low would pivot winds around to more of a NNE direction, like the NAM has it. I just have a hard time thinking the vast majority of the area goes to plain rain with such a cold airmass just north and northerly winds. And we just saw an outcome with more northerly winds than models had them, and therefore tons of ice for NYC and the coast and then the backend snow blitz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 With that sort of high to the north, probably not, the 00Z NAM MOS never had either station going over 31-32 and also has winds 020-040 dont get me wrong, we have all seen jfk rain and lga snow, but with this setup and that extreme difference, it just doesn't seem likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The biggest pain in this event will be if anyone really does change to rain for 3-4 hours Monday afternoon, I think only ERN LI will, despite the RGEM and GFS show NYC going to rain still Monday event showed rain,epically eastern long island...that didn't occur, cold air will likely funnel down Connecticut river valley's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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