UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 swing and a miss by the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Windsor Locks has 34" on the winter...the airport on the mountain up in Worcester has 78"...so what you said is basically correct. Last Monday's blizzard really jipped the western half of CT and MA-the same areas the Euro was jackpotting over several runs pretty much, as the intense banding that was supposed to park over NYC and those areas was instead over E MA, E CT, RI, and Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Anybody have anything on the SREF'S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Nam spits out close to 30" for parts of far northern NY through NH and VT and parts of South Western Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Anybody have anything on the SREF'S? .98" max qpf .51" mean .28" min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Nam spits out close to 30" for parts of far northern NY through NH and VT and parts of South Western Maine thinking of going to mt snow. jay peak maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 .98" max qpf .51" mean .28" min I would seem to me that the NAM is wayyyyy out to lunch on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Sneaky ice signal on Nam could catch a lot of people off guard. Precip is light but you don't need heavy precip to make things icy. Sometimes lighter is even worse because there's no run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 To be honest everyone, this NAM run seems to have more precip for many areas. To me it looks rather icy. I'm not a fan of ice, so I'm not looking forward to that if it is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 thinking of going to mt snow. jay peak maybe I think we are gonna have a good idea by the 00z GFS/EURO GGEM AND NAM went out drinking with no DD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Surface reflection of the low stuck in the mountains of W. Virginia from hours 30 through 39...this might get interesting...maybe not on this run...but down the road a piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think we are gonna have a good idea by the 00z GFS/EURO GGEM AND NAM went out drinking with no DD if i still see 15 plus inch notes in catskill or western mass, i am going. no interest in boston snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 NAM shows about .21" qpf for LGA; 14 of 21 SREF members see LGA at about .50" or more, I don't say this often but TOSS THE NAM.. I won't even post another run from that model on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 NAM shows about .21" qpf for LGA; 14 of 21 SREF members see LGA at about .50" or more, I don't say this often but TOSS THE NAM.. I won't even post another run from that model on this storm no need to toss. everyone knows the city is south of precip. Yea you can note 1/4 to a 1/5, good stuff looks to be north. i am chasing a storm with max north.or my concern is where to chase. hunter, ny, mt snow or sugarbush Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 no need to toss. everyone knows the city is south of precip. Yea you can note 1/4 to a 1/5, good stuff looks to be north. i am chasing a storm with max north.or my concern is where to chase. hunter, ny, mt snow or sugarbush Best Well if you don't toss the NAM your gonna need to go to Plattsburgh or Montreal to see your 15" lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Close to a snowstorm after hour 54 for Long Island and the Jersey coast as low pressure begins to deepen east of North Carolina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Close to a snowstorm after hour 54 for Long Island and the Jersey coast as low pressure begins to deepen east of North Carolina... I noticed that.....very interesting.....the low is much further NW this run isn't it ? might be too little too late, but who knows lately.....Either it's on to something, or just too far NW with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 NAM 54 and 60 hour panel are very interesting. It is showing a stronger deformation zone on the NW quandrant of the secondary low off the coast. It will be interesting to see further runs of the model to see if the area expands. The GFS should be interesting tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Close to a snowstorm after hour 54 for Long Island and the Jersey coast as low pressure begins to deepen east of North Carolina... Unfortunately that low developed and pulls almost due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I noticed that.....very interesting.....the low is much further NW this run isn't it ? might be too little too late, but who knows lately.....Either it's on to something, or just too far NW with it I sensed there was something up when I saw the surface feature sit over the W. Virginia hills for half the day Monday...that should allow for quite a bit of moisture to gather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Unfortunately that low developed and pulls almost due east Its the NAM at 54 so who really knows at this point; something to keep an eye on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Well if you don't toss the NAM your gonna need to go to Plattsburgh or Montreal to see your 15" lmao decsion is tomorrow afternoon. still in key west. would love to pound snow in south vermont. I am still skeptical about the the snow in general. GFS runt tonight and 6 z will be critical with wher ethe heaviest snow fallls. going no where near sne in search of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 decsion is tomorrow afternoon. still in key west. would love to pound snow in south vermont. I am still skeptical about the the snow in general. GFS runt tonight and 6 z will be critical with wher ethe heaviest snow fallls. going no where near sne in search of snow I really like the GFS/Euro blend, with that said your interest in storm chasing has now peaked my interest, and I think my wife and I will head up to either, belleayre, whindam, or hunter for Sunday and Monday... She's gotta take off tho so gotta wait till morning to decide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 At least the NAM got rid of the phony idea that it could get above freezing on NE winds in the Tri-State area outside of the Twin Forks. Looks like lots of light sleet on this run until the end when there could be a period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I really like the GFS/Euro blend, with that said your interest in storm chasing has now peaked my interest, and I think my wife and I will head up to either, belleayre, whindam, or hunter for Sunday and Monday... She's gotta take off tho so gotta wait till morning to decide if I can't 15, I am not going. really going to watch the the daks and south vermont. skeptical in the entie blockbuster evoution at this point. imop need a cool town to drink beer and watch snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Good chance they hit 70" by the end of this, and Central Park might not even break 25" because so much might be sleet and ZR and less precip. Most think it's been a 40N and above winter but it's really been a SNE winter. Have no clue about this statement as here, Just North of Syracuse were nearing 150" so far and we're just beginning to pile it up!! Its definitely a 40N and above Winter so far but that hopefully changes the next few weeks. Unless Syracuse isn't considered North of 40, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 At least the NAM got rid of the phony idea that it could get above freezing on NE winds in the Tri-State area outside of the Twin Forks. Looks like lots of light sleet on this run until the end when there could be a period of snow. Yep...basically no rain through 84 hours on it in NYC...maybe just 0.01" of rain over extreme SE sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 00z RGEM is much icier for NNJ/NYC/LI area than 12z and snowier for areas a bit further N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 00z RGEM is much icier for NNJ/NYC/LI area than 12z and snowier for areas a bit further N and W Rgem starting to line up with GFS guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Rgem starting to line up with GFS guidance By the looks of it, I wouldn't be surprised if beyond it's 48 hours it showed a band of snow over NNJ.....You never know.....This one might still have a few things to pull out of its bag of tricks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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