Metsfan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wetter run. Snow from ewr north hr 42-48 Ice issues in central nj LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 4-6 to NYC and northern nj 2-4 down to Middlesex county 1-2 Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 People that will be seeing ice better hope for a smaller mid level wedge of warmer air so it's sleet and not freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 LI? 2-4 but that could be some sleet. Temps are the same as nyc. Warmer on the east end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ordr Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bridgeport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 4-6 to NYC and northern nj 2-4 down to Middlesex county 3 runs straight now .colder and snowier. Wait till tonight. ..at this pace 1-2 Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 2-4 but that could be some sleet. Temps are the same as nyc. Warner on the east end Thanks. My computer is unbelievably slow. I finally got it to update the recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bridgeport? 4-6 some sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ordr Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 4-6 some sleet Yuck. That'll make for an ugly commute. Still a lot of snow on the ground over here - will be nice to get a refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 .50+ ewr-east. Central Long Island .75+ Central nj .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 People that will be seeing ice better hope for a smaller mid level wedge of warmer air so it's sleet and not freezing rain. NYC and LI I think may be okay, the tendency is for those areas to want to sleet in borderline sleet freezing rain scenarios, central nj may be a problem though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 4-6 to NYC and northern nj 2-4 down to Middlesex county 1-2 Monmouth county Very hard to see much accums below rt 78 . If u are going by the snowmaps it's sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 2-4 but that could be some sleet. Temps are the same as nyc. Warmer on the east end wrong about the east end, last storm,Monday only hit 31 then dropped quickly all day don't see it being much different this time with exception of south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lower elevation are well defined by this weenie map, you can easily make out the Hudson as the 4-6 lines turn pink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 % of freezing rain http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwprobs/loop_files/zr_3hr_loop.html http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwprobs/zr_probabilities.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Liking the trends for a south/colder solution. Should keep any icing issues to a minimum; at least in the NYC metro area and NW if the trends continue. Also encouraging is the GFS is getting wetter. Its very possible that a WSW is issued in and around the area if these trends keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 There is still a lot of ice this run over NNJ. Temps cool for about 6 hours aloft and then warm again with the lighter precip returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 nothing looks to change regarding the qpf this run. Overall not a big event unless 60 + miles north of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Liking the trends for a south/colder solution. Should keep any icing issues to a minimum; at least in the NYC metro area and NW if the trends continue. Also encouraging is the GFS is getting wetter. Its very possible that a WSW is issued in and around the area if these trends keep up. I saw no real difference in this run to the prior. Maybe I am looking at the model wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I saw no real difference in this run to the prior. Maybe I am looking at the model wrong You never see any change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 You never see any change.. Break out the numbers. I have interest to see the difference. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 wrong about the east end, last storm,Monday only hit 31 then dropped quickly all day don't see it being much different this time with exception of south shore Just posting in what the 18z gfs has for temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Break out the numbers. I have interest to see the difference. Best 12z 18z Your correct when it comes to nyc and immediate areas, however for NW burbs the precip expanded quit a bit, and further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The RGEM at 18z having the snow line so close to NYC all day Monday is a double red flag, the RGEM has had a warm bias on ptypes all winter and often is too far north at the end of it's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I think this is worth consideration. With the surface wave so weak, I think that surface warm air advection for NYC really will be limited once they wetbulb down. I am thinking this is a frozen event for most or all north of 195 in NJ, except just along the coast perhaps. Those ocean T's are pretty darn cold, mid-30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 12zimage.jpg 18zimage.jpg Your correct when it comes to nyc and immediate areas, however for NW burbs the precip expanded quit a bit, and further south I just have access to the public NCEP site from noaa. Maybe I am missing it again. 1st is 12 z 2nd is 18 z 18 z looks slight less qpf possibly too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I just have access to the public NCEP site from noaa. Maybe I am missing it again. 1st is 12 z 2nd is 18 z 18 z looks slight less qpf possibly too Idk what to tell ya to be honest lol, we both have maps showing conflicting things, the only thing I can think of is the fact the map I posted is high res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The RGEM at 18z having the snow line so close to NYC all day Monday is a double red flag, the RGEM has had a warm bias on ptypes all winter and often is too far north at the end of it's run Agreed. It looks significantly cooler compared to 12z as well. 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The RGEM at 18z having the snow line so close to NYC all day Monday is a double red flag, the RGEM has had a warm bias on ptypes all winter and often is too far north at the end of it's run Yeah, even through 48 hours its a borderline hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Yeah, even through 48 hours its a borderline hit... F-ing Boston.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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