RU848789 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Finally, Upton responds - Mt. Holly will hopefully respond in kind shortly... Missed it - they did.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 In case people are not aware and before people start yelling about their BL tomorrow afternoon and evening when their surface temp In the mid and upper 30s . It is being modeled that way. When the 850 low dies it hands itself off to the SLP only then will you see the CAD start to drag the surface south. So no calls of bust until it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 In case people are not aware and before people start yelling about their BL tomorrow afternoon and evening when their surface temp In the mid and upper 30s . It is being modeled that way. When the 850 low dies it hands itself off to the SLP only then will you see the CAD start to drag the surface south. So no calls of bust until it's over. Hahaha I was thinking the same thing. I'm sure we'll still see the same whiners come out by tomorrow night complaining about how mild their temps are. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 In case people are not aware and before people start yelling about their BL tomorrow afternoon and evening when their surface temp In the mid and upper 30s . It is being modeled that way. When the 850 low dies it hands itself off to the SLP only then will you see the CAD start to drag the surface south. So no calls of bust until it's over. I guess the big story is that a number of locations have had nearly equal to or greater than their total seasonal snowfall in just about the last 2 weeks. People will also be happy if D10 Euro turns the corner for an Arctic air overrunning special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This does look like a potentially dangerous freezing rain scenario. Light precip in the form of freezing rain is the worst as we know. If it's not going to be mostly snow (which we are 99%% sure it's not going to be), then I'd rather it be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I guess the big story is that a number of locations have had nearly equal to or greater than there total seasonal snowfall in just about the last 2 weeks. People will also be happy if D10 Euro turns the corner for Arctic air overrunning special. That day 10 euro matches up with the 6z GEFS at 500 mb. I didn't see the 12z ensembles. But that would make everyone forget the blizzard miss But great job bringing that up here. Thrs 1st . The GFS may be brewing a little something up. Early for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Agree, that looks good ATTM. BTW, thanks for posting. Your input is valued here, and I for one, appreciate it. Hey np, thanks for the kind words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I always include the great State of NJ. Just be patient.OK thank you. Always enjoy your to-the-point forecasts. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 That day 10 euro matches up with the 6z GEFS at 500 mb. I didn't see the 12z ensembles. But that would make everyone forget the blizzard miss But great job bringing that up here. Thrs 1st . The GFS may be brewing a little something up. Early for both. I personally have not been too psyched about any potential storm this winter so far (even the crazy runs of the blizzard, though I did eventually get kind of stirred up in the frenzy).....but the period from the 12th of this month all the way through to the the end of the month (and into March even!) I feel could really close this winter on a high note. As long as we aren't focused on trying to reach or get anywhere near Boston's snow totals this winter (we simply won't).....I'd be surprised if almost all of us do not exceed our averages. An additional 15 to 30" added to what we have should do it (one biggie and another significant event). HONK HONK! Despite the fact that not all of us have seen a major snowstorm this winter (though many have already), it's remarkable what a persistently chilly period we've had.....and that will continue. Let's get through this one.....a couple inches, some ice and rain.....and on to the next. The future looks bright (very cloudy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 WSW issued here 9-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hahaha I was thinking the same thing. I'm sure we'll still see the same whiners come out by tomorrow night complaining about how mild their temps are. Hahaha Or, this will be rain that will wash all the snow and ice away...lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 WSW issued here 9-18"Wow, that's a huge range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Or, this will be rain that will wash all the snow and ice away...lmaoThat would be fine by me, in another two weeks the fat lady will be putting her dress on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 That day 10 euro matches up with the 6z GEFS at 500 mb. I didn't see the 12z ensembles. But that would make everyone forget the blizzard miss But great job bringing that up here. Thrs 1st . The GFS may be brewing a little something up. Early for both. They both have the Arctic wave on Thurs but the Euro is a little more east. The Euro opens the gates of the Arctic on Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 That would be fine by me, in another two weeks the fat lady will be putting her dress on. Lol I think she'll have lost her voice for another month to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wow, that's a huge range Yea I've never seen that big of a range for a warning, plus my point and click say absolutly no totals, just snow...I think their still gun shy... For me They busted low for the blizzard then busted high for the last storm, haven't got a call right yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lol I think she'll have lost her voice for another month to be honestStatistically speaking the peak of snow season ends on Presidents' Day around here. Sort of how by August 15th the big heat is usually over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Yea I've never seen that big of a range for a warning, plus my point and click say absolutly no totals, just snow...I think their still gun shy... For me They busted low for the blizzard then busted high for the last storm, haven't got a call right yetWell to be honest, we often see ranges such as 5-10, 6-12 or even 10-20.....9 and 18 are just not the usual numbers we see. Though the range does cover a lot of ground, it's not really unheard of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Well to be honest, we often see ranges such as 5-10, 6-12 or even 10-20.....9 and 18 are just not the usual numbers we see. Though the range does cover a lot of ground, it's not really unheard ofI agree, but up here it's pretty rare... Especially in a warning update. Usually we see 12-15, or 14-18" They usually keep it 4" or less increments lol. My guess is they're just as clueless with these models as we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Statistically speaking the peak of snow season ends on Presidents' Day around here. Sort of how by August 15th the big heat is usually over. Yeah.....I'd prefer to get most of our snow between early January and mid February, but I think we get dumped on from Feb 12th through the first week of March this season. This time it has the potential to stick around as well, which is nice. I hate being bullish because it usually is a letdown, but I'm feeling great about that period this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Would think winter weather advisory for NYC and north central nj. Warnings for northern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 That would be fine by me, in another two weeks the fat lady will be putting her dress on. Not even close winter will last well Into march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Would think winter weather advisory for NYC and north central nj. Warnings for northern areas They may go to a watch right now and decide in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Not even close winter will last well Into marchI said nothing about Winter. It can be 90 degrees in September, but most people would be ready for Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hr 33 light preciep in area surface south of Staten Island. 850 by HPN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Statistically speaking the peak of snow season ends on Presidents' Day around here. Sort of how by August 15th the big heat is usually over. As much as people will argue it I say it's easier to get a big snow here December 10 than it is March 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wow, that's a huge range I say 18 in highest elevations and upper HV to 9 in valley locations in mid HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hr 39 surface down to Phl 540 by nyc... Steady preciep in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hr 42 temps the same...looks a bit wetter this run for nyc and northern areas. Awful commute Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wetter run. Snow from ewr north hr 42-48 Ice issues in central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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