IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Where is the warm layer? Looks frozen at the surface and 850 to me.It's fine for Boston, not here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's fine for Boston, not here I'm talking about NYC, it looked like 850s were frozen most of the run Check that, they warm up Monday night. Dangerous look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 That's one of the strangest runs I've ever seen. Verbatim it would be the worst ice storm many of us have ever seen. Probably a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Long duration, high QPF event on the GFS. The trof amplifies to the west to prevent surface low quickly escaping. Coastal ptype in question. Going to be plenty of model changes in the days to come. Nice to see continued threat for another significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm talking about NYC, it looked like 850s were frozen most of the runNo they make it to almost NW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Long duration, high QPF event on the GFS. The trof amplifies to the west to prevent surface low quickly escaping. Coastal ptype in question. Going to be plenty of model changes in the days to come. Nice to see continued threat for another significant storm. This run is basically all frozen. Snow to a lot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 This run is basically all frozen. Snow to a lot of ice.Incredible amounts of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 No they make it to almost NW PA. You're right. That is a crazy, long-duration, crippling look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm excited now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Incredible amounts of ice. how much in inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 I have a tough time taking that run seriously. That was like 1.5" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I have a tough time taking that run seriously. That was like 1.5" of ice.That would be an absolutely devastating storm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 That would be an absolutely devastating storm for the area.The wide spread damage would be unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Do not trust this run. There is no modell agreement at all. In addition every model run is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The wide spread damage would be unrealBut I digress, this is fantasy land. Hopefully this storm stays just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 The surface would be in the 20's, even in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The problem with the 2nd disturbance being the one that blows up vs the 1st is that it pretty much gives the high time to leave without the -NAO, so if this is delayed any further it eventually becomes mostly liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Although it may not be true that GFS run was scary but exciting at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Almost a repeat of what we just we nt through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm excited now. Don't get too excited, it's probably a sleet sounding verbatim. I still don't understand why you're a fan of freezing rain but to each his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Almost a repeat of what we just we nt through. Not at all. We are dealing with an arctic high up north, overrunning to a coastal is now showing up on the models. GGEM has a 1042 high up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Almost a repeat of what we just we nt through.different set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It doesn't matter what the gfs shows now it'll keep changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm excited now. Excited over the 100+ hr GFS, and for an outcome that would knock out power, trees and infrastructure in the dead of winter for days? Have you ever been in a really devastating icestorm? I saw myself what just a half inch of ice can do in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GGEM has an overrunning to a coastal storm. Long and slow duration event. It looks similiar to the GFS but the coastal is really warm for the coast as it tucks in near the coast when it rides northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GGEM has an overrunning to a coastal storm. Long and slow duration event. It looks similiar to the GFS but the coastal is really warm for the coast as it tucks in near the coast when it rides northward.Rain or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 does a coastal storm usually mean the interiors get hamered ,like say orange ,ulster,and up to albany? Because its hugging the cost if im not mistaken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Rain or snow? A foot + of snow then rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Canadian is also a very long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Excited over the 100+ hr GFS, and for an outcome that would knock out power, trees and infrastructure in the dead of winter for days? Have you ever been in a really devastating icestorm? I saw myself what just a half inch of ice can do in PA. I wasn't talking about the run verbatim, just the prospect of a long duration, high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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