IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The primary rots in southern Pa...it doesn't matter if the costal goes to Bermuda...we need it to rot in the mid atlantic I generally agree with you, I'm just not sure how long that primary is going to be able to hang on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Long Island is horrific to forecast for in the winter. The north shore has the bluffs that help to insulate it from any weak waa. However, as has been pointed out, sst's are very cold this time of year. Agree. Plus our NE winds are coming over New England snow cover under a cold dome of air. We have confluence pressing so a CAD signature us already showing up. Look how it drives the BL back into S PA . If we kill the 850 early then the entire island is in biz . Right now I want to get thru 0z without any issues then I will b happy . If the 0z runs get colder Upton has to bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Long Island is horrific to forecast for in the winter. The north shore has the bluffs that help to insulate it from any weak waa. However, as has been pointed out, sst's are very cold this time of year. One of the more interesting mornings here was back on Valentine's Day 2007. The immediate South Shore barrier islands including Long Beach had an ice storm with several hours of moderate freezing rain while there was a sleet storm from around Merrick Road north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Freezing drizzle tomorrow afternoon over the I-80 corridor. The city is a light rain or drizzle along with LI. LHV is light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hey guys/gals, when giving your takes on storms, could you try to include most of this forum and not simply NYC n LI? Lots of others in all of NJ say that use this forum also. Thanx lots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 At 06z Monday the 850mb freezing line gets to the Dutchess County line while the surface freezing line is just south of NYC. Probably a case where Brooklyn is above freezing and the Bronx isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Or maybe someone could simply start a NJ thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The surface is a bit colder, but the 850mb freezing line is still too far North. It's maybe a few miles south of the 12z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Or maybe someone could simply start a NJ thread? I always include the great State of NJ. Just be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 06z Monday KNYC - 31F Surface and 850's somewhere between 0C and +4C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'm not sure if this is a great trend or not. Colder at the surface but just as warm in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Dense fog advisory it is a warning criteria,put some color on the map.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The taint line make it right to the northern border of Rockland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 the trend is alot better for areas north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'm not sure if this is a great trend or not. Colder at the surface but just as warm in the mid-levels. Spells frz ra for a lot of regions. I'm concerned about a prolonged period of icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The NAM is much slower, freezing drizzle almost areawide Monday morning. Surface low is still hung over West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 the trend is alot better for areas north and west of the city. I'm not so sure about that, not unless you're in the LHV or up towards Ulster County in which you were always looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Precip is really light, even the stuff over New England and Upstate NY isn't anywhere near as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'm not so sure about that, not unless you're in the LHV or up towards Ulster County in which you were always looking pretty good. I think northeast pa is good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Once past 0z monday long island just falls into the 20s by 6z . You can see the CAD it send the BL S of TTN. The difference is the NAM is not as strong w the SLP and the precip is light. The Euro and GFS are more robust and probably have a better handle on its strength . As per HPC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Prolonged freezing rain, but precip amounts are so light it won't amount to much. And most of the precip is from the city and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 If I was basing my forecast off of the 18z NAM alone, which I'm not, but if I was, I would probably consider ice storm warnings for a few counties over NNJ. I'm going to say that the precip ends up being more robust than what is depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I wish we can go back to the solutions from a couple of days ago where NYC north got buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Once past 0z monday long island just falls into the 20s by 6z . You can see the CAD it send the BL S of TTN. The difference is the NAM is not as strong w the SLP and the precip is light. The Euro and GFS are more robust and probably have a better handle on its strength . As per HPC . If the NAM had the slp stronger to where the gfs had it would it have dragged 850 further south? Regardless it looks as tho the nam is picking up more on the cad at the surface imo... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Updated maps exactly in line with gfs/euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Update Now this makes sense to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Finally, Upton responds - Mt. Holly will hopefully respond in kind shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Now this makes sense to me... Agree, that looks good ATTM. BTW, thanks for posting. Your input is valued here, and I for one, appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 WWA is most likely going to be issued for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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