IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 That's liquid equivalent dog I know, and then match it up with the snow and ice maps, doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Mostly from the initial overrunning. Lol its gives them around 17"? Jeez doesnt look that impressive on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lol its gives them around 17"? Jeez doesnt look that impressive on radar. It's going to get stronger as we move into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lol its gives them around 17"? Jeez doesnt look that impressive on radar.Its falling over 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Its falling over 2 days. So much hype up in the NE Forum, it falls over 2 days? Is it constant or on and off? Sorry for the stupid questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Becoming apparent this will be a 'snow or no' storm.if there is enough lift/forcing to produce mod precip it will be snow. South of that nothing meaningful will fall...doubt anyone gets more than 0.1" of ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This makes very little sense to me at the moment... I was saying that this morning... They have < 1 all the way up thru Northern Westchester which is not what any model is showing... Both GFS and EURO show 4-6 inches 15-20 miles outside of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I was saying that this morning... They have < 1 all the way up thru Northern Westchester which is not what any model is showing... Both GFS and EURO show 4-6 inches 15-20 miles outside of NYC Seems to me they are in "wait and see" mode--and are waiting for more guidance...That jp of freezing rain over the sound, is ideal, if you're waiting to "sound the alarm". Given the recent model volatility, "wait and see" before becoming very bullish on snow/ice impacts seems like a prudent course of action--if that is indeed what they are doing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Seems to me they are in "wait and see" mode--and are waiting for more guidance...That jp of freezing rain over the sound, is ideal, if you're waiting to "sound the alarm". Given the recent model volatility, "wait and see" before becoming very bullish on snow/ice impacts seems like a prudent course of action--if that is indeed what they are doing... Yes especially after the last time they sounded the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Upton didn't change there maps yet,those look identical to the 6 am maps I do believe, poetically going wait till 4 to change things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The blizz was 50 miles to the east oh well more to be revealed, anyway that banana high to the north is real pesky this time of the the year. Just my obs probably wrong, just old fashion looking at a weather map and climatology.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 SREF is wetter. 0.50"+ contour now over Staten Island. Was near the Westchester line on the 09z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Seems to me they are in "wait and see" mode--and are waiting for more guidance...That jp of freezing rain over the sound, is ideal, if you're waiting to "sound the alarm". Given the recent model volatility, "wait and see" before becoming very bullish on snow/ice impacts seems like a prudent course of action--if that is indeed what they are doing... Yea that's true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 SREF is wetter. 0.50"+ contour now over Staten Island. Was near the Westchester line on the 09z run. Moving south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The low res SREF precip type date also indicates mostly freezing rain and the flipping to snow late Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 02.png That is a lot of ice accretion for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 That is a lot of ice accretion for NYC That's less than 0.10" LE. Basically just a glaze. Won't do anything other than make for some dangerous driving and walking conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 We should eventually see a winter storm warning all the way to the south shores of CT as well as the N Shores of Nassau and Suffolk counties . .5 to .75 now and in those places the 0 line is just S of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 We should eventually see a winter storm warning all the way to the south shores of CT as well as the N Shores of Nassau and Suffolk counties . .5 to .75 now and in those places the 0 line is just S of them. Hopefully heading for Monmouth cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 We should eventually see a winter storm warning all the way to the south shores of CT as well as the N Shores of Nassau and Suffolk counties . .5 to .75 now and in those places the 0 line is just S of them. It's all going to depend on how much snow they think will fall. I can envision a large area of WWA for a few inches of snow and up to 0.25" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 PB you think a warning for snow or ice?? Right now Upton has our highs above freezing both Sunday and Monday and that's for western Nassau county right by the lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 For everyone rooting for the system to track south, once the coastal takes over, it will drag all of the moisutre with it. Bad post. We want it as far south as we can get it so we don't have the screw area when it transfers. Farther south that area ends up over the mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Winter Weather Advisories are issued for events that have a high likelihood of occurrence, are imminent, or are already occurring. However, advisories are issued for wintry weather that creates a considerable inconvenience while not posing an immediate or direct threat to life or property, nor a widespread disruption of commerce. Winter Weather Advisories are usually issued in the period of 12 to 24 hours before the storm starts, and occasionally beyond that as much as 36 hours before the storm moves into the region. Criteria for Winter Weather Advisories A. Snow: Accumulations of more than 1 inch, but less than warning criteria are expected. B.Ice (Freezing Rain)/Sleet: Any accumulations that are less than warning criteria are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 You can usually get a handle on what they are thinking by checking the point and click forecasts. If it's showing something significantly different than what the snow/ice maps show then typically they will be updating them soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bad post. We want it as far south as we can get it so we don't have the screw area when it transfers. Farther south that area ends up over the mid Atlantic Not if the coastal ends up near Bermuda. Off the Carolina coast, fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 PB you think a warning for snow or ice?? Right now Upton has our highs above freezing both Sunday and Monday and that's for western Nassau county right by the lie The N shore is such a different animal when it's really marginal . Take a look at the total snowfall depth amounts and it will give you an idea of what the N vs S looks like . Sometime you can see exactly where the cold loves to set up. I am starting to think that this system is colder all the way through than we saw Mon on the island but it's so close on the S shore I am not sure. But I think I'm sure once N of N Blvd and maybe even the NSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The NAM is ticking south already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Not if the coastal ends up near Bermuda. Off the Carolina coast, fine. The primary rots in southern Pa...it doesn't matter if the costal goes to Bermuda...we need it to rot in the mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The N shore is such a different animal when it's really marginal . Take a look at the total snowfall depth amounts and it will give you an idea of what the N vs S looks like . Sometime you can see exactly where the cold loves to set up. I am starting to think that this system is colder all the way through than we saw Mon on the island but it's so close on the S shore I am not sure. But I think I'm sure once N of N Blvd and maybe even the NSP Long Island is horrific to forecast for in the winter. The north shore has the bluffs that help to insulate it from any weak waa. However, as has been pointed out, sst's are very cold this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bad post. We want it as far south as we can get it so we don't have the screw area when it transfers. Farther south that area ends up over the mid Atlantic Agree the faster the SLP takes over from the 850 mb low your winds turn NE. Further S doesn't hurt as .5 to .75 is bring modeled . The further S this is its just don't going to drag the 850's S not the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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