Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wow, per the new GFS once to Rt.78 and north, predominant precip type is snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Its hard to say...but I doubt any further south than northern Monmouth & Middlesex Counties...I'm sort of leaning towards Staten Island...it will have to be fine tuned. if gfs is right great call by u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 12z GFS snowmap from TropicalTidbits. If this were to verify, it would basically be an example of exactly how this winter has gone. SNE crushed (tho interior does better this time), areas just north of NYC do well, NYC is borderline and anywhere south is screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 A quick picture from 10 minutes ago (Mamaroneck, NY): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'm sort of in Pamela's camp WRT temps. Take for example the Mon event, we had SE winds and only got up to 35F at Westhampton. Now this is being progged as ENE to NE winds, I'll take the under. That one was modeled to get us into the 40's out here, this is already progged colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The snow this morning is 100 miles south of where most models had it could be a clue to the baroclinic zone being pulled 100 miles south . We see how the SLP has corrected so far S it now exits the VA capes. Use the high res models for the BL but the models may be playing catch up here and 1 more S is possible . .75 at KNYC now. So we got wetter and colder since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'm sort of in Pamela's camp WRT temps. Take for example the Mon event, we had SE winds and only got up to 35F at Westhampton. Now this is being progged as ENE to NE winds, I'll take the under. That one was modeled to get us into the 40's out here, this is already progged colder You beat me too commenting about our here....last week event oR this past week, the max temperature only made it to 32,briefly,then plummeted rest of day with nearly a half inch of ice here. I do have pictures but there to large to upload... North fork mattituck east furthest north on all of the island ironically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The snow this morning is 100 miles south of where most models had it could be a clue to the baroclinic zone being pulled 100 miles south . We see how the SLP has corrected so far S it now exits the VA capes. Use the high res models for the BL but the models may be playing catch up here and 1 more S is possible . .75 at KNYC now. So we got wetter and colder since last night. Are the strength and position of the arctic high being underestimated by guidance you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Who's got the GGEM pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Who's got the GGEM pbp toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This is getting more interesting and having the precip further south than the models right now is a plus as well. We may not be done trending there's still some time left for things to improve. Those north of the city look a lot better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Who's got the GGEM pbp All rain for just about everyone and very little precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Who's got the GGEM pbp u dont want to see it lol. nobody gets below 32 at all on the canadian. freezing line stays in northern mass almost the whole time. 850 line southern ny state straight through Connecticut coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 GGEM transfers all the energy to the coastal well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 All rain for just about everyone and very little precip Really warm for everyone. Only model really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Mostly Sunny here now with a sun snow shower. Picked up a solid coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 All rain for just about everyone and very little precip All rain for just about everyone and very little precip What is wrong with that model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Really warm for everyone. Only model really warm. you dont even have to look at that joke to know to toss it its a horrible model thats erratic and has a warm bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Are the strength and position of the arctic high being underestimated by guidance you think?The SLP came south as the models see the confluence. Now the coast just needs the 850 mb low to give up faster and get the winds to switch around to the NE faster. I think once N of 80 you guys are in great shape. The city is really close. Another 10 Miles south and the city is snow . But we may have to wait until 0z to see if that trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Indeed.....I have been reading Pam's posts all along and am very impressed with her weather knowledge and insights. if gfs is right great call by u Thanks...Canadian seems to disagree with me...but that's why they play the games. A few snowshowers moving through Port Jeff in the last 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 UKMET moves the low off the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 If this were to verify, it would basically be an example of exactly how this winter has gone. SNE crushed (tho interior does better this time), areas just north of NYC do well, NYC is borderline and anywhere south is screwed. I love following winter trends. It just wants to snow in certain areas during certain winters. Look at 9/10 in DC Bmore and PHL. My original thoughts remain. Lots of ice on the island focused on the north shore. South Shore goes to rain for a while on East wind. Goes back to ice as winds go back to NE. Could be a decent ice storm on the north shore right around damage thresholds. south shore is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I love following winter trends. It just wants to snow in certain areas during certain winters. Look at 9/10 in DC Bmore and PHL. My original thoughts remain. Lots of ice on the island focused on the north shore. South Shore goes to rain for a while on East wind. Goes back to ice as winds go back to NE. Could be a decent ice storm on the north shore right around damage thresholds. south shore is fine. Models showing 04-06 now on wind, I'm not sure that'll be enough to get anyone but eastern Suffolk over freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Models showing 04-06 now on wind, I'm not sure that'll be enough to get anyone but eastern Suffolk over freezing. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Models showing 04-06 now on wind, I'm not sure that'll be enough to get anyone but eastern Suffolk over freezing. That could be true say north of the southern state. Down here right by the bay any thing but a north east wind and we rain. JM and blue wave can back that up. The extreme south shore and especially the barrier islands have their own climate. There is almost no snow on the ground down at Jones Beach currently and I still have 6 solid inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The shortwave looks stronger on the Euro. Looks like all the pieces are now onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Frame 1 24hrs OPC Surface Low prog -1006mb Lake Erie 1026mb Atlantic High - sliding east Frame 2 48hrs OPC Canadian High 1036mb extrap to 1030mb -moving southeast- First Atlantic impulse fades out (DSIPT) at 1011mb Lake Erie shortwave swings east- just south of L.I. prog is 1004mb Frame 3 Today's 12z GFS 250mb at 48hrs prog 1005mb at PA-MD border Northeast Direction for the wind contours my take- a crappy 1-3" mix at best within a 15 mile radius of NYC http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The RGEM is already FZRA in NYC at 48 hours and the RGEM has been 20-40 miles too far northwest all winter as a whole on Ptype when there has been a high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 H5 looks a bit better and the snow for tomorrow night is about 30 miles further southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Ice storm signal continues. 850mb freezing line hangs just North of the city by Monday morning, surface south of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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