robPAwx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hour 54 Snow KNYC N and Long Island 850`s S to 78 EWR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This is going to continue to trend South. No good forecast until Sunday 12 z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 .50+ for metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 EWR? Hour 54 - 57 the 0 line at 850 is right there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Surface low tracks all the way down to North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Gfs has a much stronger high also this run....this could continue to trend colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Surface low tracks all the way down to North Carolina JMA from last night. Look familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The colder trend on the models means that the threat for icing may be limited to a fairly small area over NJ and maybe southern LI and the rest is sleet or snow. South of those areas gets little precip anyway, so there wouldn't be much icing. Sleet is a pain, but nowhere near as hard to drive on and function in as freezing rain. I'm not seeing much reason for optimism in terms of snow around NYC, maybe an inch or two between this upcoming batch and the end. If you add an inch or two of snow with 2-3" of sleet (sleet is 3-1 ratio), you get 3-5" total for the storm. I don't see places warming above freezing that remain on NE winds (edit-maybe eastern LI as jbenedet pointed out). If there's no mechanism at the surface to warm the air up and winds remain off cold, snowcovered land, I don't see how it can warm up enough for rain. And the precip rates won't be heavy enough to warm the air through latent heating. I could see around I-78 and parts of LI coming close to warning criteria freezing rain-hopefully the cold air can be thick enough at the ground for sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 There's still a big difference between the sound and the immediate Western Atlantic. While the ocean is cold, a wind right off these waters would, imo warm the surface above freezing. The easterly component is also more pronounced further east... I understand...but see above post regarding the overarching influence of the Hudson Bay High / arctic anticyclone easily overcoming that type of thing and the reference to it being sufficiently influential to allow snow far down the southern NJ coast and the Delmarva & Norfolk VA...with far more open ocean and vastly longer fetches over warmer waters....*not this case specifically*...but as a general assessment of that type of air masses impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 NYC is very close to 0.75"+ LE this run. Makes it to about the Bronx/Westchester line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looking at instant weather maps 12 inches is shown on those clown maps in NNJ nw of 287...however we clearly don't belive clown maps. This storm tho for our area is not over. Onto the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looking at instant weather maps 12 inches is shown on those clown maps in NNJ nw of 287...however we clearly don't belive clown maps. This storm tho for our area is not over. Onto the GGEMgfs just had the best run for nyc so far at least at a believable timeframe. I think the snowstorm for the city is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nice call Pamela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I understand...but see above post regarding the overarching influence of the Hudson Bay High / arctic anticyclone easily overcoming that type of thing and the reference to it being sufficiently influential to allow snow far down the southern NJ coast and the Delmarva & Norfolk VA...with far more open ocean and vastly longer fetches over warmer waters....*not this case specifically*...but as a general assessment of that type of air masses impact. BTW at hour 51 you are snowing at hour 54 you are probably sitting under Mod snow. I can`t post the SV map . maybe someone else can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 NYC close to 0.75" liquid on this GFS run and the 850 low takes a further south track to near NYC. This could flip it over to snow long enough for maybe a few inches. Let's see what other models have, but I think rain is going to be quite limited with this at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looking at instant weather maps 12 inches is shown on those clown maps in NNJ nw of 287...however we clearly don't belive clown maps. This storm tho for our area is not over. Onto the GGEM Solid run for the interior and hudson valley. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 For whatever reason precip just has an awful time making it south of Rt. 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nice call Pamela Its not a done deal by any means...but T.Y. TWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 NYC close to 0.75" liquid on this GFS run and the 850 low takes a further south track to near NYC. This could flip it over to snow long enough for maybe a few inches. Let's see what other models have, but I think rain is going to be quite limited with this at this rate.yeah John I don't see any rain with this system for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Noticeable difference12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Its not a done deal by any means...but T.Y. TWT. How far south does the snow get in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 In any event, almost moderate snow here now. Roads are covered, things went down hill very quickly as the roads were not pre-treated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 How far south does the snow get in your opinion? Its hard to say...but I doubt any further south than northern Monmouth & Middlesex Counties...I'm sort of leaning towards Staten Island...it will have to be fine tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Part of the heavier precip on the GFS is also likely due to the stronger high-stronger high providing more surface cold, more overrunning and more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 12z GFS snowmap from TropicalTidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Its hard to say...but I doubt any further south than northern Monmouth & Middlesex Counties...I'm sort of leaning towards Staten Island...it will have to be fine tuned. Thanks. Hope it's w. Monmouth where I live. We don't want ice, ice, baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 This is why it's so hard to get significant ice here. This run keeps most of it SW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nice call Pamela Indeed.....I have been reading Pam's posts all along and am very impressed with her weather knowledge and insights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Part of the heavier precip on the GFS is also likely due to the stronger high-stronger high providing more surface cold, more overrunning and more precip. Models always underdo precip south of a strong arctic high when there is a surface reflection, it's one of the most underrated model weaknesses. They usually catch on somewhat in the short range but often still underdo it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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