PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I didn't look at the sounding; but I doubt it goes much past +1.0 C in NYC @850 mb...which is within typical margin of error... + 1 . mid 20`s I think the N shore is in for a bad ICE storm . The precip does not look heavy enough to overcome 0 or plus 1 . So its LIQUID . But the BL is just cold . .50 of ice is possible looking at that map. That's worse than a foot of snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 PB, don't get me wrong--I'm leaning towards ice in the NYC metro/LI area but he is right that the trend of pushing the surface low further southeast, into the better dynamics, associated with the trailing, southern shortwave could have significant implications on the coastal redevelopment for eastern areas on Tuesday...And being that this aspect is still 72+ hrs out, means this is far from set in stone...Definitely something to watch... I see the SLP now being driven off VA . I think the 850 MB low gets so far N that before the SLP takes back over the mid levels pop just above 0 Our boundary is toast . That's what scares me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I see the SLP now being driven off VA . I think the 850 MB low gets so far N that before the SLP takes back over the mid levels pop just above 0 Our boundary is toast . That's what scares me The other issue is the other low forming off the SE coast steals moisture from the low impacting us, otherwise QPF would be much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 + 1 . mid 20`s I think the N shore is in for a bad ICE storm . The precip does not look heavy enough to overcome 0 or plus 1 . So its LIQUID . But the BL is just cold . .50 of ice is possible looking at that map. That's worse than a foot of snow . I did find Islip on the 12z NAM...they make it to +2.2 C @ 850 mb...but the models have been trending colder & Islip is on the S. Shore...and it is the NAM over 48 hours out so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I see the SLP now being driven off VA . I think the 850 MB low gets so far N that before the SLP takes back over the mid levels pop just above 0 Our boundary is toast . That's what scares me Pauly, Its exactly where JB said it would be for snow for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I see the SLP now being driven off VA . I think the 850 MB low gets so far N that before the SLP takes back over the mid levels pop just above 0 Our boundary is toast . That's what scares me First half looks icey, no doubt. I don't think there's any way to get around that at this point. What I'm interested in, is if this coastal can get its act together, faster -- temps into the mid levels would crash, and the second half, on Tuesday could surprise with appreciable snow for eastern areas...As I said before, it's a long shot, but definitely something to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Didn't taje long for the snow to begin. Light snowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 + 1 . mid 20`s I think the N shore is in for a bad ICE storm . The precip does not look heavy enough to overcome 0 or plus 1 . So its LIQUID . But the BL is just cold . .50 of ice is possible looking at that map. That's worse than a foot of snow . Bridgeport peaks at +1.6 C on the 12z NAM but spends most of the event less than +1.0 C @ 850 mb. I gravely doubt anyone from NYC north has any period where two meter temperatures get above freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Light snow and flurries in Pleasantville NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Short term RAP shows a coating of snow for most of the area, up to an inch NW Nj. Nice to see since we'll miss the "big show" over the next couple days.....something to freshen up the dirty snowpack a bit. Also have to mention that Boston could be snowing starting midnight all day Sunday, Monday, and until midday Tuesday (accumulating 12-24" in most areas with higher amounts outside of the city). Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 First half looks icey, no doubt. I don't think there's any way to get around that at this point. What I'm interested in, is if this coastal can get its act together, faster -- temps into the mid levels would crash, and the second half, on Tuesday could surprise with appreciable snow for eastern areas...As I said before, it's a long shot, but definitely something to watch... Agree, looking at the 850`s that 0 line it is hanging right there . So yes once you can turn those winds NE , you may have a backside flip . Great CAD signature showing up at the BL from 0z Monday into 0z Tues on the 4KNAM . The low levels just slide right through the area . The key is how far N does the 850 low get , if its off by 50 miles and the SLP takes over 3 hours earlier then it could be a snowier forecast . Sitting here right now I hate seeing .50 of ICE even being modeled . Especially when a lot of the point and clicks are for rain in the areas I think ICE sneaks in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bridgeport peaks at +1.6 C on the 12z NAM but spends most of the event less than +1.0 C @ 850 mb. I gravely doubt anyone from NYC north has any period where two meter temperatures get above freezing... We are close on the N shore . Early Feb , cold waters , NE wind , Snow cover , BL all point to pulling it out . But J Ben is right . May need another 24 hours to see exactly how far N the 850 mb low gets and how fast the SLP take over ., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bridgeport peaks at +1.6 C on the 12z NAM but spends most of the event less than +1.0 C @ 850 mb. I gravely doubt anyone from NYC north has any period where two meter temperatures get above freezing... I largely agree. Warmer areas will definitely be on the eastern half of LI, however, where NE/ENE wind is still a decent fetch over the ~40F Atlantic. The sound is cold--mid 30's or so and NE/ENE wind is mostly over land for Western half of LI to NYC. I'm convinced those areas stay below freezing throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Light snow in Closter north Bergen county now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I largely agree. Warmer areas will definitely be on the eastern half of LI, however, where NE/ENE wind is still a decent fetch over the ~40F Atlantic. The sound is cold--mid 30's or so and NE/ENE wind is mostly over land for Western half of LI to NYC. I'm convinced those areas stay below freezing throughout. I wrote a little on this the other day...with the upper air flow being oriented ESE / WNW....places on far eastern LI will not be subject to the usual warming...and the water is now exceptionally cold....even Nantucket Island is cold at this hour...so boundary level will not be a problem even out there...I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Legit light snow here, accumulating on all surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS is south with the low and the surface line. Not looking good for the NYC area. Icy mess on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hr 45 surface to Phl...540 to nyc...gfs is going south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Snow flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Prob snow sleet at hr 49 nyc mod preciep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hr 51 snow ice line just south of ewr. Surface by Ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hoping that we get more precip this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hoping that we get more precip this run. It looks like we will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Surface shoots up to nyc at hr 54...850's by ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 PB GFI. You are 100% right people are going to be surprised cause Uptons point and click forcast even for western Long island is for high temps well above freezing Sunday and Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I wrote a little on this the other day...with the upper air flow being oriented ESE / WNW....places on far eastern LI will not be subject to the usual warming...and the water is now exceptionally cold....even Nantucket Island is cold at this hour...so boundary level will not be a problem even out there...I think. The thing is, when you have an arctic anticyclone sitting over eastern Canada or New England in late winter (the so-called Hudson Bay Highs)...their influence is so great and they are so good at bringing cold air to the south when they are situated as the one is now...it is really the only time a place like the lower Delmarva or coastal Virginia has any chance to see snow from an approaching cyclone as they are the only engines that can effectively transport sufficiently cold air from the Canadian Maritimes to ordinarily warmer climates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 More snow this run for the interior on the GFS. The 850mb freezing line is significantly further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hour 54 Snow KNYC N and Long Island 850`s S to 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Sv maps 4-6 for NYC and 2-4 down to Ttn. A lot of that is prob sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I wrote a little on this the other day...with the upper air flow being oriented ESE / WNW....places on far eastern LI will not be subject to the usual warming...and the water is now exceptionally cold....even Nantucket Island is cold at this hour...so boundary level will not be a problem even out there...I think. There's still a big difference between the sound and the immediate Western Atlantic. While the ocean is cold, a wind right off these waters would, imo warm the surface above freezing. The easterly component is also more pronounced further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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