Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lots of banter This post definitely helped redirect the course of the discussion. Thanks for stepping up. Nam????? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/ http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ http://www.twisterdata.com/ http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The NAM is gradually coming around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The NAM is gradually coming aroundby far I feel like that's the worst model. Navgem is way better. In fact I don't know if they updated that model but it's been a relatively good model this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Gotten Awfully quiet why do I feel like gfs should our come out by now? Then again ice had very long2 weeks work and snow wise so someone refresh my memory lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Gotten Awfully quiet why do I feel like gfs should our come out by now? Then again ice had very long2 weeks work and snow wise so someone refresh my memory lol GFS doesn't start running until 10:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nvm gfs at 11 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looking at the GFS and all of the models I am thinking of an old Brooklyn saying Forgetaboutit. The chances for any snow over 4" is very slim. The best looking model run still shows a very lackluster 500mb pattern. I think you need to go over 100 miles north for any real snow. On the other hand Boston may get socked again, but even there it is not 100%. The pattern just does'nt look right for NYC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looking at the GFS and all of the models I am thinking of an old Brooklyn saying Forgetaboutit. The chances for any snow over 4" is very slim. The best looking model run still shows a very lackluster 500mb pattern. I think you need to go over 100 miles north for any real snow. On the other hand Boston may get socked again, but even there it is not 100%. The pattern just does'nt look right for NYC.. I do not remember many snows in NYC where right before the event, 850 mb temperatures in Chicago and Minneapolis are ten degrees Celsius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The GFS initialized with the shortwaves still offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looking at the GFS and all of the models I am thinking of an old Brooklyn saying Forgetaboutit. The chances for any snow over 4" is very slim. The best looking model run still shows a very lackluster 500mb pattern. I think you need to go over 100 miles north for any real snow. On the other hand Boston may get socked again, but even there it is not 100%. The pattern just does'nt look right for NYC.. I think the 6"+ snow ships left the dock a day or two ago, but a few inches and significant ice are still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looking at the GFS and all of the models I am thinking of an old Brooklyn saying Forgetaboutit. The chances for any snow over 4" is very slim. The best looking model run still shows a very lackluster 500mb pattern. I think you need to go over 100 miles north for any real snow. On the other hand Boston may get socked again, but even there it is not 100%. The pattern just does'nt look right for NYC.. Whenever I see the heavy snow axis set up right across the Mass Tpke I just shut the lights off for heavy snow for KNYC So I agree that part of the forecast can be made. What remains is how much ice is there around the area as the BL may get stuck . ( and where does that set up ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 The GFS is weak sauce at H5. Far less amped up. Going to be more ice this run as the surface low track will tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 There just isn't a whole lot of precip around, at least not through Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hr 57 surface Ttn and 850's by 78. Long iland is colder so far then nw jersey. Low is further south then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Major ice issues Ttn north this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looks like ice to rain for NYC this run, it might try and flip to snow like 12z did as the transfer occurs. Ice for CNJ and portions of NNJ. LHV and extreme NNJ are mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Low track south of acy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 It will try and give us some backend snows Might even dry slot around early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Very light snow into Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Sv maps have 4-6 touching nyc and into Long Island. Less snow in northern nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 NE NJ, LHV and parts of LI get 4-6" per SV. Less as you go south where LE really drops off. Western New England cleans up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 .5+ for NYC and .25+ line down to Ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 .25 plus ice between 195 and 78 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Even though not much change in pop type/amounts...lows went south exit off the Delmarva..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 .5+ for NYC and .25+ line down to Ttn It's great having two people giving the same exact PBP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Once WxBell finishes updating I will post the ptype map like I did for the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 We would a significant shift south to see snow probably up to a 100 miles. The models may still be underestimating the cold press so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Sounds like gfs went towards the euro with low well south, and 2-4" with mix.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 We would a significant shift south to see snow probably up to a 100 miles. The models may still be underestimating the cold press so we'll see what happens. The CAD only helps the low levels. The mid-levels have been pretty consistently warm now for several runs. Just slight ticks here and there which is just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 another 2 feet for boston, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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