IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 If that was the point, stop arguing about specifics, especially incorrect ones. Most people here, myself included have just been trying to convey that it was close to causing precip type issues for the coast. I agree with the posters that thought this was a less than desirable solution. It leaves the smallest of margins for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 This run was also a tenth or two wetter for Northern areas which combined with better mid-level temps led to higher snowfall totals, especially from Rt. 94 North where LE was 0.75"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Much more worried the CMC verifies on this one, this isn't like the last event, that high chases the system south the entire trek it makes from the Midwest to the East Coast, entirely possible it ends up suppressed. The PAC ridge is a little flat so that`s valid and the flow is a little fast . It runs under the vortex and I am just not sure of a bigger push through the lakes . 5 days away , I think this SW gets better modeled by 12z Friday anyway . But the GFS and Canadian gets everyone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Staten Island and Brooklyn are above freezing here, so is the south shore. The point is that this run was very close to being too warm for the coast. That's what everyone here has been trying to say. That also means it is very close to staying all frozen too. It's all perspective. Is the glass half empty or half full, you know? Not sure why people are fighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The GFS is colder and the Canadian has a great CAD signature . I would not sweat 1 Euro OP run and it`s 850 s . Would obv like to see the Euro where the GFS and CMC are and will just have to wait to see which model trends to the others . Good Monday threat at 12z , they all see it . With the east based block we just don't want anything too amplified. Just enough strength not to get suppressed and not too strong to introduce p-type issues coast. Once the Friday clipper gets offshore on Friday we'll probably have a better idea. But at least a front end thump before any mixing looks possible here should Euro idea work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The PAC ridge is a little flat so that`s valid and the flow is a little fast . It runs under the vortex and I am just not sure of a bigger push through the lakes . 5 days away , I think this SW gets better modeled by 12z Friday anyway . But the GFS and Canadian gets everyone . Most of this areas best snows with these sort of events occur when there is no ridge on the west coast but a trof or zonal flow instead, the reason is likely because they dampen when they come east in that setup as opposed to amplifying, the high to the north is enough for good overrunning so you still get good snows. 1/26/94, 1/6/89, 2/8/94 all had a trof on the West coast and all events kept us mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Most of this areas best snows with these sort of events occur when there is no ridge on the west coast but a trof or zonal flow instead, the reason is likely because they dampen when they come east in that setup as opposed to amplifying, the high to the north is enough for good overrunning so you still get good snows. 1/26/94, 1/6/89, 2/8/94 all had a trof on the West coast and all events kept us mostly snow I love GFS and Canadian center . The Euro SLP was a bit N for my liking . The system has some duration do it . I am just looking for a little more confluence like the GFS offers . I didn`t want to get caught up on 1 OP . I Think that was a great suite . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I think Thursday-Friday has a better chance, but that's my opinion. Let's hope we get dumped on !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I have to agree with PB GFI. If you live on the coast this run raises a red flag! Any further north movement and the storm ends up just like yesterday... I would much rather the storm be well south so we have room to spare right now we have none and we still have 5 days to go!!!!!!!! The biggest difference is the high is supposed to be to the north, while Monday's storm, the high was to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I think Thursday-Friday has a better chance, but that's my opinion. Let's hope we get dumped on !!! Strongly disagree.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 After looking more closely at the 12z EPS members, quite a few give us a decent event on Sunday into Monday but the real show would be later in the week as many of the individuals want to blowup the trailing vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 After looking more closely at the 12z EPS members, quite a few give us a decent event on Sunday into Monday but the real show would be later in the week as many of the individuals want to blowup the trailing vort. So that matches up pretty well with the EURO correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 So that matches up pretty well with the EURO correct? Pretty much so, the mean has about 6" of snow for NYC which matches the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Pretty much so, the mean has about 6" of snow for NYC which matches the OP. OK, obviously off topic when is the time frame for that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 18z GFS has a better press of cold air @ 102 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Shortwave seems a bit strung out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The GFS has the area of low pressure offshore moving SW? Lol what's this I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Big snows get to Monmouth cty on south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The GFS has the area of low pressure offshore moving SW? Lol what's this I see It had something like this a few days ago it's worth monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 After looking more closely at the 12z EPS members, quite a few give us a decent event on Sunday into Monday but the real show would be later in the week as many of the individuals want to blowup the trailing vort. Is it holding any energy back? It tends to do that in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Big snows get to Monmouth cty on south 18Z GFS Ensemble mean keeps the heaviest precip north http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2015020318&fh=138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Is it holding any energy back? It tends to do that in the mid range. This is a northern stream storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 18Z GFS Ensemble mean keeps the heaviest precip north http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2015020318&fh=138 Well yeah, but that is because they seem to be split between focusing the energy on 2 separate waves. Look at the mean for 144-168 hours, see the moisture near the M.A. Coast? That's from ensembles focusing on the 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Indices look a lot better, esp in Atlantic, for this event. Courtesy of HM on Twitter with this image: PNA looks better than this last event and so does the NAO. Correct me if I'm wrong but don't we usually get our big storms when the NAO flips from neg to pos and visa versa? According to that chart, that would put us at Feb 9 and Feb 13 - when the NAO flips. PNA maintains itself nicely, and EPO goes back to neg post Feb 13 (resulting in arctic outbreak?). Just my two cents but trying to piece together the bigger picture which should help dictate the track we are all watching change run to run. If I'm correct, wouldn't these indices, along with a stronger high in Canada (stronger/better positioned than yesterday's storm as modeled now) press this thing further south than yesterday's event? (Hopefully not too far south) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Huge changes on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Surface low off the Delmarva, icing situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Almost looks like a cut off low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Surface low off the Delmarva, icing situation Where is the warm layer? Looks frozen at the surface and 850 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Overrunning to coastal. Major icestorm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 System crawls, days and days of precip, flipping to all snow on Tuesday over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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