Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 As Ollie the Weatherman says, It Gon Rain. This is Boston's winter, something I've come to accept. Maybe we'll squeak a decent storm out this winter, but I'm not holding my breath.could be worse look at philly and DC no storm with more than an inch or so and seasonal totals around 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 could be worse look at philly and DC no storm with more than an inch or so and seasonal totals around 5 inches I was looking at DC yearly snowfall totals, there have been only four winters since 1988 with twenty or more inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 How much in the way of snow... Id rather that then ice obviously Hey not trying to be rude but if you follow the analysis you can get a good idea of what will happen in the various regions of NYC metro. People generally don't like IMBY ("in my back yard") questions... Also, whatever snow amounts you see now would very likely not be what you actually get so take as a grain of salt in anycase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hey not trying to be rude but if you follow the analysis you can get a good idea of what will happen in the various regions of NYC metro. People generally don't like IMBY ("in my back yard"). Also, whatever snow amounts you see now would very likely not be what you actually get so take as a grain of salt in anycase.First of all my question was not an IMBY question it was related the what the GEFS were showing... I have read pretty much every single post in this thread... I can give ya am estimate of what I possibly could see but it would be a complete guess because the models are still having issues with how to handle the S/W's.Also I know you are not trying to be rude. No worries on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I was looking at DC yearly snowfall totals, there have been only four winters since 1988 with twenty or more inches of snow.makes sense dca only averages 11 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 makes sense dca only averages 11 or so We did some research one at work and found that in order for it to be "easy" for your area to see a snow event on average, you want to average about 16 inches of snow per winter. If you average less than that, as a whole you need a bunch of things to fall in place and will find you have many winters averaging near nothing or 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 makes sense dca only averages 11 or so But from 1978 to 1988, DC had seven winters with twenty or more inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 But from 1978 to 1988, DC had seven winters with twenty or more inches of snow.wow impressive. I lived there 84-85 and it sucked one snow event that turned to rain and a bunch that just flat out busted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 As Ollie the Weatherman says, It Gon Rain. This is Boston's winter, something I've come to accept. Maybe we'll squeak a decent storm out this winter, but I'm not holding my breath. I'd say 9.8" of snow in Central Park (much more east) qualifies as a "decent storm". Central Park should be over 25" easy now if not approaching 30", but because of the undermeasurements they're close to 20". I'm pretty sure Central Park is above average now for this point in the winter and Long Island is well above. It's definitely a SNE winter though, which is very atypical of a Nino-usually Ninas favor them. Boston looks to get another foot easy from this upcoming storm. DC to Philly had a very good winter last year, and March was great in the DC area while NYC was too far north, so it's hard to give them too much sympathy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 But from 1978 to 1988, DC had seven winters with twenty or more inches of snow. Total Snowfall 2000-01 through 2013-14 (Last 14 Years) Boston / Logan Airport: 679.8 inches / average 48.56 inches Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 596.1 inches / average 42.58 inches New York City / Central Park: 467.5 inches / average 33.39 inches Philadelphia / International Airport: 389.9 inches / average 27.85 inches Baltimore / BWI Airport: 292.0 inches / average 20.86 inches Washington / Reagan Airport: 214.7 inches / average 15.34 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Not to mention this is the 5 year anniversary of the storm that gave the DC/Balt/Philly areas up to 30" and an all-time record at PHL and nothing at Central Park. So there are definitely times they get nailed and NYC-BOS gets little or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Total Snowfall 2000-01 through 2013-14 (Last 14 Years) Boston / Logan Airport: 679.8 inches / average 48.56 inches Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 596.1 inches / average 42.58 inches New York City / Central Park: 467.5 inches / average 33.39 inches Philadelphia / International Airport: 389.9 inches / average 27.85 inches Baltimore / BWI Airport: 292.0 inches / average 20.86 inches Washington / Reagan Airport: 214.7 inches / average 15.34 inches Total Seasonal Snowfall 2014-15 (Through February 5, 2015) Boston / Logan Airport: 54.2 inches Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 28.5 inches New York City / Central Park: 20.1 inches Baltimore / BWI Airport: 6.8 inches Philadelphia / International Airport: 5.2 inches Washington / Reagan Airport: 3.6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This niño basically fell apart and now the models show a weak Niña in some cases next winter, we are in a major niño drought this is more or less a neutral winter. This was never classified as a Nino right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Not to mention this is the 5 year anniversary of the storm that gave the DC/Balt/Philly areas up to 30" and an all-time record at PHL and nothing at Central Park. So there are definitely times they get nailed and NYC-BOS gets little or nothing. Shush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Not to mention this is the 5 year anniversary of the storm that gave the DC/Balt/Philly areas up to 30" and an all-time record at PHL and nothing at Central Park. So there are definitely times they get nailed and NYC-BOS gets little or nothing. What about what now? That storm never happened. It's all in your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 What about what now? That storm never happened. It's all in your mind. I watched the northernmost band of 30+ dbz echos train south of me 15-20 miles for hours while flurries swirled around outside my window and the sun tried to peek out. I also had an RPG blow up in my lap last night as I stayed at the Austin Holiday Inn Express. Boom (literally). I also took small arms fire from Chris Kyle's corpse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Latest SREF run definitely trended in the right direction for us. Surface low makes it to Pittsburgh, and then begins redeveloping further southeast, near Delaware coast. Relative to 15z Surface temps and qpf amounts dropped and increased, respectively. NYC and most of LI (ex. extreme east end) remain below freezing throughout...1044 mb high in Quebec does the job... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 FWIW srefs are wetter and a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Latest SREF run definitely trended in the right direction for us. Surface low makes it to Pittsburgh, and then begins redeveloping further southeast, near Delaware coast. Relative to 18z Surface temps, and qpf amounts dropped, and increased, respectively. NYC and most of LI (ex. extreme east end) remain below freezing throughout...1044 mb high in Quebec does the Don't know why I am getting the feeling this is going further south get all of ny/nj in the good stuff. Rossi I think your right man. If this keeps trending south we could get a nice snowstorm out of this. At least all frozen for nyc is on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I watched the northernmost band of 30+ dbz echos train south of me 15-20 miles for hours while flurries swirled around outside my window and the sun tried to peek out. And that for me was really rage-worthy. I remember being at HS basketball game that night and came home to see the precip shield north. Being some naive fool I thought that would mean we'd get some flakes going any minute... And they never came, save a for a coating overnight. When I saw that coating and heard how DC-Philly were getting or heading for 20"+, I wanted to throw my computer out a window. After getting fringed by the 19 December 2009 event, that was unbelievably frustrating for the weenie side of me. Thank goodness for a few days later and then the retrograding snowbomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 And that for me was really rage-worthy. I remember being at HS basketball game that night and came home to see the precip shield north. Being some naive fool I thought that would mean we'd get some flakes going any minute... And they never came, save a for a coating overnight. When I saw that coating and heard how DC-Philly were getting or heading for 20"+, I wanted to throw my computer out a window. After getting fringed by the 19 December 2009 event, that was unbelievably frustrating for the weenie side of me. Thank goodness for a few days later and then the retrograding snowbomb. 12/19/09 was actually my favorite event that winter. I had about 18" and east of me had up to 2 feet, no rain issues or anything. Was a huge nailbiter to get it north of Philly, but it made it. The other events that winter either had big R/S/ice issues or were suppressed. 2/25/10 was great at home when it turned to snow and became windy as anything for the second half, but we wasted an inch and a half of rain on the front end from the eastern half of Queens and east. A few degrees colder and the 10" or so I had would've easily been 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Shush We actually had a couple inches in long beach with that mess. I do remember watching it snow over the ocean and we were in virga hell. I'll take a change to rain over that any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 12/19/09 was actually my favorite event that winter. I had about 18" and east of me had up to 2 feet, no rain issues or anything. Was a huge nailbiter to get it north of Philly, but it made it. The other events that winter either had big R/S/ice issues or were suppressed. 2/25/10 was great at home when it turned to snow and became windy as anything for the second half, but we wasted an inch and a half of rain on the front end from the eastern half of Queens and east. A few degrees colder and the 10" or so I had would've easily been 2 feet. 19 December looked good for us initially, it started snowing around noon but then the dry air overwhelmed it for several hours here. Only got 2 or 3" from it. The retrobomb was snow that was slow to accumulate outside of grass for the entire day 25 February around 33-34 degrees, but after sunset it ramped up big time and temps fell through the 20s. We raked overnight to the tune of about 15-16" by the time it ended. Ah well, that's enough memory banter...that can be done on the appropriate thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Of course these last 14 years for most of us in the Northeast have been above the normal 30 year averages. For example I live here in the NW Philadelphia suburbs 30mi NW of PHL airport at 700ft asl. We have averaged 39.49" of snow during the 14 years Pamela mentions....our normal average seasonal snow here is 35.50" of snow (1984-2014). I think expectations are above what is truly normal with all the big snow years and storms we have had. Folks here in NW Chester County PA think this has been a cold but not snowy winter....however we have already had 24.2" of snow this season which is still 4.2" above normal through today....but after 80" of snow last winter folks are convinced we are running at below normal snowfall. Total Snowfall 2000-01 through 2013-14 (Last 14 Years) Boston / Logan Airport: 679.8 inches / average 48.56 inches Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 596.1 inches / average 42.58 inches New York City / Central Park: 467.5 inches / average 33.39 inches Philadelphia / International Airport: 389.9 inches / average 27.85 inches Baltimore / BWI Airport: 292.0 inches / average 20.86 inches Washington / Reagan Airport: 214.7 inches / average 15.34 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lots of banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nam????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Took a look at nam 0z for sh*ts and giggles and its still lost. It just looks all strung out and I don't trust it. Onto the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nam????? The lack of posts about it means it still sucked. Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lots of banterIt's great pbp of...something, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 NAM actually looked south of it's 18z run, but yea it still was not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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