PB GFI Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Ignore all surface projections because we know nobody is ever getting above freezing with this eventI don't understand why guys can't see how these models have to right on top of the low level cold air to correct. Look at wave 1. It's going to snow on to long island tomorrw. Wave 2 will correct S . It will do so once it's on top of this confluence. Thank you for being here. Reading some of this is making my eyes bleed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I don't understand why guys can't see how these models have to right on top of the low level cold air to correct. Look at wave 1. It's going to snow on to long island tomorrw. Wave 2 will correct S . It will do so once it's on top of this confluence. Thank you for being here. Reading some of this is making my eyes bleed. With that sort of high to the north the only way we get anything but frozen is if the low tracks over or north of us and I don't see that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I don't understand why guys can't see how these models have to right on top of the low level cold air to correct. Look at wave 1. It's going to snow on to long island tomorrw. Wave 2 will correct S . It will do so once it's on top of this confluence. Thank you for being here. Reading some of this is making my eyes bleed. how far south you thinking? Could be some busts as most forecasts around here don't have much til Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Not really, sleet yes, snow I don't think soYou think this is mostky an ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 With that sort of high to the north the only way we get anything but frozen is if the low tracks over or north of us and I don't see that happening If the storm tracks over Virginia do we go to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 With the past storm, if my memory is correct. The GFS, had the surface above freezing the whole way up into central CT 24 to 36 hrs before the storm. Here in Newtown, we hit 25 degrees Monday at 4 am. and it was 17 degrees by 8 am. The Euro/HRRR was very good at surface temps, for at least this past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 how far south you thinking? Could be some busts as most forecasts around here don't have much til Sunday night I smell ice in a lot of spots around the city . Exactly where , I can't be sure . But I don't see the BL moving w a center cutting S of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 the gfs is guranteed to be too warm as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 With the past storm, if my memory is correct. The GFS, had the surface above freezing the whole way up into central CT 24 to 36 hrs before the storm. Here in Newtown, we hit 25 degrees Monday at 4 am. and it was 17 degrees by 8 am. The Euro/HRRR was very good at surface temps, for at least this past storm. If the Euro continues south as it's ensembles indicate we will all be frozen sleet or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 If the storm tracks over Virginia do we go to snow? Rossi. This is not a snowstorm in MC bud. There is mid level warmth. Thats not the fight. It's where does the BL erode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 With the past storm, if my memory is correct. The GFS, had the surface above freezing the whole way up into central CT 24 to 36 hrs before the storm. Here in Newtown, we hit 25 degrees Monday at 4 am. and it was 17 degrees by 8 am. The Euro/HRRR was very good at surface temps, for at least this past storm. Agreed. Here in coastal CT we were to receive a mere 3 to 6 with lots of ice. We ended up with 10.5. 6.5 before the back end. Never got above say 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hopefully that's not the final outcome. A lot of hours of freezing rain, sleet, snow and even some plain rain in there. It was a trend towards the snow coming in faster on Sunday. That needs to be watched. Im surprised at all the frozen precip nws out of mount holly is showing for monmouth cty. the precip is long gone before surface temps drop below freezing from everything Ive looked at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Agreed. Here in coastal CT we were to receive a mere 3 to 6 with lots of ice. We ended up with 10.5. 6.5 before the back end. Never got above say 27. I was surprised to wake up that morning and it was 19 degrees after it being 28 the night before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 its not just the temps in the area that hurt us, its the lack of QPF... a lot of people arent getting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 i wouldnt wanna be the NWS service thats for sure...is there any two models that show the same or very similar solution lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The models are struggling with the low level cold air BIG time. I'd shift everything on the GFS 50 miles south. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Again, the 850 low is too far north for much snow in NYC. The surface low is likely south enough to keep northerly winds and a chance for ice but the snow IMO is more likely in SNE. Boston is in line to get slammed again. This certainly isn't behaving like most Nino winters, this pattern is much more Nina like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Again, the 850 low is too far north for much snow in NYC. The surface low is likely south enough to keep northerly winds and a chance for ice but the snow IMO is more likely in SNE. Boston is in line to get slammed again. This certainly isn't behaving like most Nino winters, this pattern is much more Nina like. This niño basically fell apart and now the models show a weak Niña in some cases next winter, we are in a major niño drought this is more or less a neutral winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS surface temps are always garbage, should be a few degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS dumps 1-2 inches of QPF in CT outside the very extreme SW corner-very sharp cutoff of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ordr Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS dumps 1-2 inches of QPF in CT outside the very extreme SW corner-very sharp cutoff of QPF God that's such a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Gefs mean is pretty horrible for nyc And surrounding areas. Brings the low further north then op. To just south of nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Don't blame the models when the atmospheric teleconnections are unfavorable, the ENSO can't make up it's mind and the PV is too far north and oriented incorrectly for us ,now leave the somewhat friendly MJO out of this, but don't forget the QBO is still going the wrong way (more neg. again in Jan. and a remarkable 8 months in the this direction) Never trust a 'model' unless it has been certified by Playboy International. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Gefs mean is pretty horrible for nyc And surrounding areas. Brings the low further north then op. To just south of nyc. So guessing it's a pretty ice signal for LHV?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So guessing it's a pretty ice signal for LHV?? On the mean yes. Snow-ice-back to light snow. Best snows around the same areas that has been getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On the mean yes. Snow-ice-back to light snow. Best snows around the same areas that has been getting crushed. How much in the way of snow... Id rather that then ice obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Nws has the southern jersey shore close to 60 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nws has the southern jersey shore close to 60 on Sunday. Time to dust off the fishing rods :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Gefs mean is pretty horrible for nyc And surrounding areas. Brings the low further north then op. To just south of nyc. Was it south of the 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 As Ollie the Weatherman says, It Gon Rain. This is Boston's winter, something I've come to accept. Maybe we'll squeak a decent storm out this winter, but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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