winterwx21 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Lol so true. Then there's that "north-central" reference. That's what I always say. I always call Middlesex and Somerset Counties north-central Jersey. It makes sense to say that since we're on the northern end of central Jersey. We're not quite northern Jersey, but not far enough south to just be called central Jersey. Anyway, it's good to see the Euro come in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The coastal will also be weaker so whomever changes to freezing rain will likely remain freezing rain until the precip shuts off. I don't buy the backed snows that the GFS is spitting out. I don't expect much backside snows from this either. Definitely, signficantly less than last week's storm. If you miss out on Part I, Part II, with the coastal will not be able to make up for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I'm definitely worried about the ice potential for the central and southern portions of the subforum. While I certainly wouldn't expect a crippling ice storm, any amount of ice is dangerous and will cause many accidents and falls. Roads will depend on temps. It's really going to have to be really cold to get the roads to ice with salt. The January incident had super cold temps right before so the ground was super cold this time it's will not be as cold right before the storm. I wiped out on ice at work yesterday good thing I was wearing a million layers and kinda just bounced off the ground!!!! Obviously very dangerous for the elderly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 SV maps have 2"-4" of from Allentown, PA to LI (all of LI) on a straight line. 4"-6"+ from SWCT and north (straight line west to east). 1"-2" south of Sandy Hook, NJ. Brooklyn and north are all frozen. 2"-4" of snow and the rest mix/ice. Total precip is .25"-.50" from Philly to NYC the moderate qpf actually might lend itself unfortunately to an ICY solution, as you know when rain comes down hard it warms everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 the moderate qpf actually might lend itself unfortunately to an ICY solution, as you know when rain comes down hard it warms everything No, it doesn't. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Sref south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 No, it doesn't. Sigh. Well it is true that heavy FRZ does not accumulate as good as light to moderate rates.. so moderate rates would be more dangerous for the areas that encounter it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Sref south I realize that they are WAY out of range... but details would be nice for everyone to see... like how far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 No, it doesn't. Sigh. I saw it many times +FZRA can bring surface temps up 1-3 degrees for a short window but they'll fall right back down when it decreases in intensity. The way he phrased it though didn't sound correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Sref south This ambiguous comment is not helpful for anyone. Can you please post more details about the track of the low and how much farther south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Well it is true that heavy FRZ does not accumulate as good as light to moderate rates.. so moderate rates would be more dangerous for the areas that encounter it. Accumulation rates of freezing rain depend on droplet size, rate, air temp and a source to refresh the low-level cold. In 1998, it POURED in New England. Look at the radar. But it still accumulated, and rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Accumulation rates of freezing rain depend on droplet size, rate, air temp and a source to refresh the low-level cold. In 1998, it POURED in New England. Look at the radar. But it still accumulated, and rapidly. OK fair enough... I read somewhere that it was what I had said but I guess that was the wrong information. Thank you for clarifying that. Obviously there are more factors that go into it besides rate and temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This ambiguous comment is not helpful for anyone. Can you please post more details about the track of the low and how much farther south? Low goes right under nyc and have about .25-.50qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 There are some double digit plumes om the sref. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 how do the euro ens look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 How's the nam look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 How's the nam look? To early in the run... but some light snows during the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 NAM looks like its going to be south/colder than prior run....but last run was so north, does not mean much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 There are some double digit plumes om the sref. When are there not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 18z Nam looks much further south with srf low at 42hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 thru 48 definitely south and also slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Most of the modeling today is back to developing a significant low off the FL/GA coast. If that happens it will really limit moisture with the initial secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Nam at 12z was over buffalo now it's south of cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Nam at 12z was over buffalo now it's south of cleveland the 6 hours differences that this model can print out are hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 As bad as the NAM is, it still has the ice storm signal for Monday morning. 850's over the LHV with the surface over CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The surface low still ends up East of Buffalo, just takes a little longer to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The coast flips to rain between 18z and 21z, then temps start to cool again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The NAM's h5 depiction at 72 hrs makes the model look completely lost...I wouldn't even bother with it for this event until we're <36 hrs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 the moderate qpf actually might lend itself unfortunately to an ICY solution, as you know when rain comes down hard it warms everything If the rain freezes on contact it releases heat as it does so. In that scenario what you say is true. This is why rain doesn't usually freeze at or very close to 32. You get an equilibrium where the water runs off instead of freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This event now does not start until 12z Monday...two days for further trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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