FPizz Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thanks AllSnow. Good to see the ticks south, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 To be fair the ice storm would be worst towards central nj....snowier solution for us Again, depends on the model. Euro says CNJ and GFS says NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 I've noticed that when a poster gives a more positive PBP for a particular area it naturally draws compliments from other people, as if somehow that had some sort of impact on what the model ultimately showed. And then the same poster can do PBP for a different model with a more pessimistic outcome and it will hardly generate a response. People here truly live and die with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 To be fair the ice storm would be worst towards central nj....snowier solution for us in north jersey/nyc, middlesex county is considered "central jersey." in south jersey, middlesex county is considered north jersey. in middlesex county i have no idea what we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thanks for the pbp guys...how much qpf are we looking at? All frozen I assume for most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 in north jersey/nyc, middlesex county is considered "central jersey." in south jersey, middlesex county is considered north jersey. in middlesex county i have no idea what we think. Lol so true. Then there's that "north-central" reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hey, if 12z won't do it, there's always 18z, 0z 6z, 12z, 18z, and 0z the next days. haha, we are still going to get ticks north and south even after tomorrow but we should get a good idea on what's going to transpire regarding the overrunning and possible coastal after our shortwaves begin to come ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I've noticed that when a poster gives a more positive PBP for a particular area it naturally draws compliments from other people, as if somehow that had some sort of impact on what the model ultimately showed. And then the same poster can do PBP for a different model with a more pessimistic outcome and it will hardly generate a response. People here truly live and die with each model run. That's the weenie way! Nice trends today especially for the city north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 QPF isn't great. About 2/3rds of what the GFS has. These are all rounded off to the nearest tenth. KNYC 0.40" KJFK 0.30" KISP 0.20" KEWR 0.30" KMMU 0.40" KHPN 0.40" KSWF 0.50" KBDR 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thanks for the pbp guys...how much qpf are we looking at? All frozen I assume for most? SV maps have 2"-4" of from Allentown, PA to LI (all of LI) on a straight line. 4"-6"+ from SWCT and north (straight line west to east). 1"-2" south of Sandy Hook, NJ. Brooklyn and north are all frozen. 2"-4" of snow and the rest mix/ice. Total precip is .25"-.50" from Philly to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The models are trending towards a better CAD signature. The trend is towards a colder solution. People have to look at the pattern and not just the models or they will miss the snow solution again for the city and the island . With a very cold BL and SW running to your south NE winds in early Feb over a snow covered New England you will collapse the column These air masses are not modifying so these systems are running into cold air . As the SW heads east the path of least resistance when there is confluence is to its natural heat source. The water. So once it cuts S of you your NE lock off the surface. I think the correction is south . It doesn't have to be much , another 20 to 30 miles and you flip many from Monmouth County on N to snow. Ice is still possible and 1 op run does not make a 72 hour forecast but this is late FEB and not early DEC these outcomes tend to error on the colder side of guidance as the water off the EC is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 in north jersey/nyc, middlesex county is considered "central jersey." in south jersey, middlesex county is considered north jersey. in middlesex county i have no idea what we think. Lol agree. I will group is in north jersey....south of our county verbatim has the ice issues...we get sleet -snow 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So my question is: is the Euro seeing the strength of the HP pressing down? ( what would suddenly make it see it? It has been 1032 all along for the last 3 days). Or is it sampling the dynamics of the pineapples express better? Im guessing its not the latter because the Monday SW isnt on land yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 There is going to be about a 50 mile swath, somewhere between Philly and Newburgh that gets a pretty significant ice storm. That area still needs to be narrowed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The models are trending towards a better CAD signature. The trend is towards a colder solution. People have to look at the pattern and not just the models or they will miss the snow solution again for the city and the island . With a very cold BL and SW running to your south NE winds in early Feb over a snow covered New England you will collapse the column These air masses are not modifying so these systems are running into cold air . As the SW heads east the path of least resistance when there is confluence is to its natural heat source. The water. So once it cuts S of you your NE lock off the surface. I think the correction is south . It doesn't have to be much , another 20 to 30 miles and you flip many from Monmouth County on N to snow. R Ice is still possible and 1 op run does not make a 72 hour forecast but this is late FEB and not early DEC these outcomes tend to error on the colder side of guidance as the water off the EC is cold. We need about 20-30 miles of a more south adjustment next three days to push the ice and mix potential south of NYC as per the 12z Euro. Otherwise the CAD will hold at the surface and warmth will push in at 800-900 mb for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What the time frame for the snow in NYC on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 No IMBY questions, if you read you will find all the answers you're looking for. Giving out exact details such as timing ect. at 72 hours out is just plain dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thanks for the pbp guys...how much qpf are we looking at? All frozen I assume for most? East Brunswick/Manalapn are north central NJ not s. Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We need about 20-30 miles of a more south adjustment next three days to push the ice and mix potential south of NYC as per the 12z Euro. Agreed. I like how the RGEM dropped that 0 line at 850 30 Miles at hour 48 just from its 6z to its 12z run. I think the models don't see low level cold air very well so it says ok I will just run my 700 and 850 right through what It thinks is a crud air mass. As it gets closer it sees the confluence and is forced to adjust the 850's with its SLP south because it sees the path of least resistance . I think we see it adjust further. I would root for 50 and rain before I would for .50 of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 in north jersey/nyc, middlesex county is considered "central jersey." in south jersey, middlesex county is considered north jersey. in middlesex county i have no idea what we think. Middlesex County should be 2 different forecast zones from the raritan river north and west and south and west of the raritan river the other zone - I live about 2 miles south of the eastern Union County border so I follow the eastern union county forecast zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Agreed. I like how the RGEM dropped that 0 line at 850 30 Miles at hour 48 just from its 6z to its 12z run. I think the models don't see low level cold air very well so it says ok I will just run my 700 and 850 right through what It thinks is a crud air mass. As it gets closer it sees the confluence and is forced to adjust the 850's with its SLP south because it sees the path of least resistance . I think we see it adjust further. I would root for 50 and rain before I would for .50 of ice Well said. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Lol agree. I will group is in north jersey....south of our county verbatim has the ice issues...we get sleet -snow 2-3 and just generally speaking, there's routinely a notable difference in snow totals between southern middlesex county and northern middlesex county. even just between edison and e. brunswick you always do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 and just generally speaking, there's routinely a notable difference in snow totals between southern middlesex county and northern middlesex county. even just between edison and e. brunswick you always do a better. Yep always the transition zone...exit 9 on turnpike and Driscoll bridge on the gsp. I was in the spotswood area the other night, you guys do have a solid snow pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thanks AllSnow. Good to see the ticks south, nice! Anytime! Glad you guys got a solid pbp. Often it seems it can be wishy washy and imby centric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think Pamela was right about this storm last night. She called the southern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I've noticed that when a poster gives a more positive PBP for a particular area it naturally draws compliments from other people, as if somehow that had some sort of impact on what the model ultimately showed. And then the same poster can do PBP for a different model with a more pessimistic outcome and it will hardly generate a response. People here truly live and die with each model run. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 QPF isn't great. About 2/3rds of what the GFS has. These are all rounded off to the nearest tenth. KNYC 0.40" KJFK 0.30" KISP 0.20" KEWR 0.30" KMMU 0.40" KHPN 0.40" KSWF 0.50" KBDR 0.50" KFWN in NWNJ (Sussex Airport) is sometimes a different world compared to NYCMetro and places above. I work near MMU but live in FWN proper. Could I trouble you for a QPF for KFWN? Than you very much. OT, but we bottomed out at -7° this morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think Pamela was right about this storm last night. She called the southern shift.Well she isn't right yet but she did use solid climatology. I tend to agree that the far northern solutions were out to lunch. I'm starting to lean more towards an icy south shore and more snowy/sleety north shore.The good news is for those that do get ice it will be below that .5" where damage really begins .25" ice is beautiful and not damaging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Well she isn't right yet but she did use solid climatology. I tend to agree that the far northern solutions were out to lunch. I'm starting to lean more towards an icy south shore and more snowy/sleety north shore. The good news is for those that do get ice it will be below that .5" where damage really begins .25" ice is beautiful and not damaging I'm in the middle so ill have everything lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Well she isn't right yet but she did use solid climatology. I tend to agree that the far northern solutions were out to lunch. I'm starting to lean more towards an icy south shore and more snowy/sleety north shore. The good news is for those that do get ice it will be below that .5" where damage really begins .25" ice is beautiful and not damaging I'm definitely worried about the ice potential for the central and southern portions of the subforum. While I certainly wouldn't expect a crippling ice storm, any amount of ice is dangerous and will cause many accidents and falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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