Late Weekend Storm Threat

[Zir0b]

bronxville, ny. I think I got over 7 inches of sleet with that storm it was kinda cool but snow is better lol

yeah you definitely have a higher likelihood of snow up there...think the ice threat could be for portions of C NJ 

[Zir0b]

how did the 12z gfs ens look? 

[NEG NAO]

how did the 12z gfs ens look? 

tropical tidbits has them - let us know but as of 12:25 they haven't run yet IMO we are not going to get a handle on this till tomorrow we are sitting right on the line between the snow and or sleet and or freezing rain and or rain and any combo of the previously mentioned

[IsentropicLift]

12z GFS for a few selection locations

MMU150209/0000Z  60  10010KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/0300Z  63  08011KT  28.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.043    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.05    0|  0|100150209/0600Z  66  07010KT  26.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.063    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.12    0|  0|100150209/0900Z  69  06013KT  27.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.099    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22    0|  0|100150209/1200Z  72  06015KT  28.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.14|| 0.129    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.35|| 0.34    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/1500Z  75  05015KT  29.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.169    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.53|| 0.51    0|  0|100150209/1800Z  78  04015KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.081    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.61|| 0.59    0|  0|100150209/2100Z  81  02015KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.62|| 0.60    0|  0|100150210/0000Z  84  02015KT  26.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.65|| 0.63    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150210/0300Z  87  36016KT  25.6F  SNPL    6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.014    6:1|  0.1|| 0.01|| 0.65|| 0.64   55| 45|  0

LGA

150209/0000Z  60  08010KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/0300Z  63  07009KT  25.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.05    0|  0|100150209/0600Z  66  06010KT  25.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.034    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.08    0|  0|100150209/0900Z  69  06012KT  25.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.057    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.14|| 0.14    0|  0|100150209/1200Z  72  06013KT  26.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.069    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.21    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/1500Z  75  05013KT  29.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.20|| 0.194    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.42|| 0.40    0|  0|100150209/1800Z  78  03013KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.42|| 0.55    0|  0|100150209/2100Z  81  02012KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.42|| 0.57    0|  0|100150210/0000Z  84  02013KT  26.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.039    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.46|| 0.60    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150210/0300Z  87  01011KT  24.0F  SNPL    3:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.009    3:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.46|| 0.61   69| 31|  0150210/0600Z  90  36011KT  25.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    3:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.46|| 0.61    0|  0|  0

HPN

150209/0000Z  60  07008KT  24.2F  SNOW    5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/0300Z  63  07008KT  20.9F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033    6:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0150209/0600Z  66  06008KT  20.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    7:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0150209/0900Z  69  06010KT  21.1F  SNPL    4:1| 0.3|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.084    5:1|  0.9|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.17   60| 40|  0150209/1200Z  72  06011KT  22.9F  SNPL    6:1| 0.6|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.107    5:1|  1.5|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.28   63| 37|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/1500Z  75  05011KT  25.2F  SNOW    5:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.233    5:1|  2.7|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0150209/1800Z  78  03009KT  30.8F  SNOW   14:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.175    8:1|  5.2|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.68  100|  0|  0150209/2100Z  81  02010KT  30.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    8:1|  5.3|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.70  100|  0|  0150210/0000Z  84  02011KT  22.5F  SNOW   21:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    8:1|  5.5|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.71  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150210/0300Z  87  36010KT  21.6F  SNOW   15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    8:1|  5.6|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.72  100|  0|  0

ISP

150209/0000Z  60  05009KT  27.4F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.015    1:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.01   28| 72|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/0300Z  63  05008KT  25.6F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.015    1:1|  0.0|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.03    4| 96|  0150209/0600Z  66  05009KT  25.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.028    1:1|  0.0|| 0.05|| 0.03|| 0.06    0|  0|100150209/0900Z  69  05010KT  26.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.041    1:1|  0.0|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.10    0|  0|100150209/1200Z  72  05012KT  29.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.037    1:1|  0.0|| 0.05|| 0.11|| 0.14    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/1500Z  75  05011KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.166    1:1|  0.0|| 0.05|| 0.11|| 0.30    0|  0|100150209/1800Z  78  04011KT  34.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.243    1:1|  0.0|| 0.05|| 0.11|| 0.54    0|  0|100150209/2100Z  81  04012KT  34.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064    1:1|  0.0|| 0.05|| 0.11|| 0.61    0|  0|100150210/0000Z  84  02012KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035    1:1|  0.0|| 0.05|| 0.15|| 0.64    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150210/0300Z  87  01012KT  26.5F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.020    3:1|  0.1|| 0.07|| 0.15|| 0.66   47| 53|  0150210/0600Z  90  35012KT  24.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    3:1|  0.1|| 0.07|| 0.15|| 0.66    0|  0|  0

JFK

150209/0000Z  60  08010KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/0300Z  63  07010KT  27.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.03    0|  0|100150209/0600Z  66  06011KT  26.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.05    0|  0|100150209/0900Z  69  06012KT  27.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.033    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.08    0|  0|100150209/1200Z  72  06014KT  27.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.033    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.12    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/1500Z  75  05014KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.161    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.29|| 0.28    0|  0|100150209/1800Z  78  03013KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.173    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.29|| 0.45    0|  0|100150209/2100Z  81  02012KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.29|| 0.46    0|  0|100150210/0000Z  84  02014KT  28.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.049    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.34|| 0.51    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150210/0300Z  87  01012KT  25.2F  SNPL    4:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.009    4:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.34|| 0.52   37| 63|  0

SWF

150207/1500Z  27  21005KT  18.4F  SNOW   14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   14:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0150207/1800Z  30  20006KT  24.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036   11:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0150207/2100Z  33  20006KT  28.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   11:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05    0|  0|  0150208/0000Z  36  18005KT  27.2F  SNOW   13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   11:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150208/0300Z  39  18004KT  28.1F  SNOW   14:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027   12:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0150208/0600Z  42  20004KT  31.4F  ZRSN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   12:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11   48|  2| 49150208/0900Z  45  20003KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   12:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13    0|  0|100150208/1200Z  48  VRB02KT  26.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   12:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150208/1500Z  51  09003KT  32.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008   12:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14   64|  0| 36150208/1800Z  54  VRB02KT  32.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   12:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15   81|  0| 19150208/2100Z  57  11004KT  31.7F  SNOW    5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   11:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16  100|  0|  0150209/0000Z  60  10005KT  25.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   11:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/0300Z  63  09004KT  20.9F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   10:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0150209/0600Z  66  06004KT  19.3F  SNOW    5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    9:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0150209/0900Z  69  06005KT  19.7F  SNOW   15:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074   11:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31  100|  0|  0150209/1200Z  72  05006KT  20.9F  SNOW   11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154   11:1|  4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/1500Z  75  05006KT  23.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.152   11:1|  6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62  100|  0|  0150209/1800Z  78  04009KT  25.6F  SNOW    7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.184   10:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0150209/2100Z  81  03009KT  23.8F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034   10:1|  7.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0150210/0000Z  84  03008KT  22.2F  SNOW   19:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   10:1|  7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.84  100|  0|  0

BDR

150207/1800Z  30  23008KT  26.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018   10:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0150207/2100Z  33  23008KT  29.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   10:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|  0150208/0000Z  36  VRB02KT  28.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   10:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150208/0300Z  39  VRB02KT  31.0F  SNOW   13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   11:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0150208/0600Z  42  23003KT  31.5F  ZRSN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026   11:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05   52|  1| 47150208/0900Z  45  VRB02KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.028   11:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.08    0|  0|100150208/1200Z  48  13004KT  32.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   11:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.08    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150208/1500Z  51  07005KT  33.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   11:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.08    0|  0|  0150208/1800Z  54  07007KT  33.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150208/2100Z  57  05012KT  28.1F  SNPL    6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.014    6:1|  0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.01   80| 20|  0150209/0000Z  60  05012KT  23.1F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.023    5:1|  0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.04   81| 19|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/0300Z  63  05011KT  21.6F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    6:1|  0.5|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.08   91|  9|  0150209/0600Z  66  04013KT  22.0F  SNPL    5:1| 0.3|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.056    5:1|  0.7|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.14   55| 45|  0150209/0900Z  69  05014KT  22.0F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.057    4:1|  0.8|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 0.19   13| 87|  0150209/1200Z  72  05016KT  25.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.085    4:1|  0.8|| 0.16|| 0.09|| 0.28    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/1500Z  75  04016KT  29.6F  SNOW   10:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.242    7:1|  3.1|| 0.16|| 0.09|| 0.52  100|  0|  0150209/1800Z  78  05016KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.201    7:1|  3.1|| 0.16|| 0.09|| 0.72    0|  0|100150209/2100Z  81  04017KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083    7:1|  3.1|| 0.16|| 0.09|| 0.80    0|  0|100150210/0000Z  84  02016KT  27.2F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.015    7:1|  3.2|| 0.17|| 0.09|| 0.82   63| 37|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150210/0300Z  87  01015KT  23.8F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.012    7:1|  3.3|| 0.19|| 0.09|| 0.83   51| 49|  0

EWR

150208/2100Z  57  07006KT  34.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150209/0000Z  60  09011KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/0300Z  63  07012KT  28.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.039    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.05    0|  0|100150209/0600Z  66  06012KT  26.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.040    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.09    0|  0|100150209/0900Z  69  06014KT  26.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.066    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.15|| 0.15    0|  0|100150209/1200Z  72  06016KT  27.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.087    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.24    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150209/1500Z  75  05016KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.183    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 0.42    0|  0|100150209/1800Z  78  03016KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 0.55    0|  0|100150209/2100Z  81  02016KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 0.56    0|  0|100150210/0000Z  84  02016KT  27.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.47|| 0.59    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150210/0300Z  87  36014KT  25.1F  SNPL    3:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.011    3:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.47|| 0.60   61| 39|  0

[NorthShoreWx]

bronxville, ny. I think I got over 7 inches of sleet with that storm it was kinda cool but snow is better lol

 

We had 1.3" of sleet/snow (mostly sleet) but also Substantial freezing rain on 2/14/2007.

 

[Winter201415]

I mentioned in my post it was a different set up :facepalm:lets all read the posts throughly before we rip them apart

fair enough sorry about that. The thing is I don't see sleet with this setup. Hopefully we get more sleet than freezing rain. The models always underestimate the low level cold so that's why I'm worried we'll get an ice storm out of this especially with the cad signature it got going. I have a question for you guys... Don't you think they should retire the nam model? I feel like it's pointless! Everytime

[Allsnow]

how did the 12z gfs ens look?

The mean surface low track is north of operational

[PB GFI]

The 12z GEFS is a tick colder at 66 than its 6z at 72. Both the 0 line and the 32 line run across the N part of NYC and right along the CT coast At 6z both were probably 10 miles N of there.

Def cooled a tick , however a tick here and a tick there is probably how the models will adjust .

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z JMA through 72hrs looks pretty far south

 

 

[FPizz]

The mean surface low track is north of operational

Looks a little south though from the 6z ens, though north of the 12z op

[bluewave]

Not a good GFS run for NYC. Hope this changes over the next 72 hrs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jbenedet]

I'm definitely leaning toward the colder side for our area relative to current guidance. The 850 mb will stop heading north about 50 miles south of last week's storm. This system is also weaker, and will advect less warm air into the mid levels. As such, I am inclined to make the same shift (50 miles south) for the thermal gradient, which I think is conservative at this point.

 

That 1032 mb high means business, and will likely keep anyone from central Jersey on north and east locked into frozen precip.

 

NYC/LI will likely be on the frozen mix/all-snow line, rather than the frozen mix/rain line, we dealt with previously....

[Winter201415]

I'm definitely leaning toward the colder side for our area relative to current guidance. The 850 mb will stop heading north about 50 miles south of last week's storm. This system is also weaker, and will advect less warm air into the mid levels. As such, I am inclined to make the same shift (50 miles south) for the thermal gradient, which I think is conservative at this point.

That 1032 mb high means business, and will likely keep anyone from central Jersey on north and east locked into frozen precip.

NYC/LI will likely be on the frozen mix/all-snow line, rather than the frozen mix/rain line, we dealt with previously....

totally agree with this excellent post. Look what happen Monday! Onto the euro!

[IsentropicLift]

I'm definitely leaning toward the colder side for our area relative to current guidance. The 850 mb will stop heading north about 50 miles south of last week's storm. This system is also weaker, and will advect less warm air into the mid levels. As such, I am inclined to make the same shift (50 miles south) for the thermal gradient, which I think is conservative at this point.

 

That 1032 mb high means business, and will likely keep anyone from central Jersey on north and east locked into frozen precip.

 

NYC/LI will likely be on the frozen mix/all-snow line, rather than the frozen mix/rain line, we dealt with previously....

The coastal will also be weaker so whomever changes to freezing rain will likely remain freezing rain until the precip shuts off. I don't buy the backed snows that the GFS is spitting out.

[IsentropicLift]

Basically no change for the Euro through 24 hours. The front starts off a tick South but then ticks back North.

[Wannabehippie]

I'm definitely leaning toward the colder side for our area relative to current guidance. The 850 mb will stop heading north about 50 miles south of last week's storm. This system is also weaker, and will advect less warm air into the mid levels. As such, I am inclined to make the same shift (50 miles south) for the thermal gradient, which I think is conservative at this point.

 

That 1032 mb high means business, and will likely keep anyone from central Jersey on north and east locked into frozen precip.

 

NYC/LI will likely be on the frozen mix/all-snow line, rather than the frozen mix/rain line, we dealt with previously....

Hopefully more on the snow than the frozen mix, as ice and sleet suck.

[IsentropicLift]

Hopefully more on the snow than the frozen mix, as ice and sleet suck.

Embrace the ice, feel the ice, you are the ice...

[IsentropicLift]

Small differences in timing so far. Boston gets a pretty good slug early Sunday morning.

[IsentropicLift]

Digging less, more disjointed, not quite as amped up. Little ticks here and there.

[stlirish]

Embrace the ice, feel the ice, you are the ice...

Why do you like ice so much? The WORST precip type ugh

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[TheManWithNoFace]

Does anyone have a good link for reanalysis data? I lost my link and want to get a look at how things played out last Sun-Mon.

[IsentropicLift]

Northern New England is the place to be on Sunday.

[IsentropicLift]

Why do you like ice so much? The WORST precip type ugh

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I don't like it, but I'm not going to whine about it either. It is what it is. 

[IsentropicLift]

Surface low is further North on Sunday night. You really don't want the vort to dig less because it's going to allow the surface low to track further North.

[Allsnow]

Hrs 63 surface over the city..850 just south of the city

[IsentropicLift]

The trailing vort actually ends up digging more but the first northern stream wave escapes East which is what is driving the initial WAA precip.

[IsentropicLift]

The temp gradient is a little tighter, that's about it.

[Zelocita Weather]

Hrs 63 surface over the city..850 just south of the city

 

About 30-40 miles south of the GFS if true...

[Allsnow]

Hr 66 surface temps down towards SI...850 now north of city light preciep in area

[IsentropicLift]

We go freezing rain early Monday morning, around 03z.