IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The surface low almost tracks to Montreal. The GGEM is completely lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The GGEM is ticking South as well. The GGEM has rain on Sunday night as far north as the LHV So did it tick south or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So did it tick south or not?Yes it's been the warmest and furthest north for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Regardless of how much snow the GFS is snowing, some people should start getting concerned about a legitimate ice threat if a situation like this transpires...the GFS, which almost always is terrible at depicting low level cold, is showing quite a bit of ZR already. See past event regarding how badly the GFS busted with the surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So do you guy's think this continues to trend south? Or do you think we're getting close to the final outcome? I don't think we're done just yet. The shortwaves aren't fully sampled yet so i think by tonight or tomorrow am we'll know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 So did it tick south or not? With the initial frontal boundary on Saturday night, yes. With the actual surface low on Sunday, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We can't see in between hours. Which is why Snow maps, especially SV ones, are useful because you can get a snap shot of temps during heaviest precip. There is no substitute for looking at the soundings. I often get model soundings here but it seems not to be working this morning: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html Does anyone have links to other free sites for model soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 When you see something like this inside of 72hrs it is generally a bad sign. The only thing I will say is that a lot has to go perfectly to get significant icing. If the warm layer ends up narrower it could be sleet. If the coastal ends up stronger it could flip winds around quicker like the last event. And it's not like the models are missing the lower level cold. The GFS is plenty cold at the surface, and with the deep snowpack they could be even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 With the initial frontal boundary on Saturday night, yes. With the actual surface low on Sunday, no. I think the two would be directly related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I've seen lots of western long island NYC talk/ referencing,bit nothing of eastern long island. I've been busy today and haven't had much time to keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 When you see something like this inside of 72hrs it is generally a bad sign. The only thing I will say is that a lot has to go perfectly to get significant icing. If the warm layer ends up narrower it could be sleet. If the coastal ends up stronger it could flip winds around quicker like the last event. And it's not like the models are missing the lower level cold. The GFS is plenty cold at the surface, and with the deep snowpack they could be even colder. Great post. And we could probably subtract 2-3 degrees from those temperatures since the GFS has a warm bias when it comes to low level cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 From 60-72 the UKMET is crashing the boundary south would probably become frozen soon after 72 hours, it appears very close to the GFS at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The mid level low tracks determine whether snow falls, not the surface low. The 850 low looks to ride over or north of NYC-this has to change for snow to reach the area.Once the surface takes over the 850 s collapse. You just saw that Monday . The difference here its going to take over sooner IMO .The models are catching on and the trend is now S not N. The RGEM just took the 850s 30 miles S between 6z and 12z at 48 hours and brings 1 to 2 tomorrow onto Long Island so its adjusting already in the near term . I think a better CAD signature will start showing up now as we get closer to Mondays system. The GFS is very close to snowing through some of these layers at KNYC , if the city is lucky that's sleet and not freezing rain. The trend is now to a colder one aloft and unlike last weekend when we were adjusting the 850 line 10 miles N after after run , this time the adjustments should be S . To many people were convinced last week that NYC and Long Island would rain those of us who argued against it were correct. so once again , look beyond the models and why should this end up colder ? You have a very cold BL , the air mass is cold and SLP loves to look for warm air. Where is that ? South and east . You will have a SW cutting and developing to your S that will turn your wind NE It is very hard to rain in early Feb on a NE wind coming over snow cover . Yes the key will be when does the surface take over , but the models are seeing surface feature 72 hours out it did not see Mondays until it was developing. IMO the trend should be S and the details will get refined as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Is a 50 miles shift south doable... I believe that 30 miles either way is the margin of error. So it would not take much for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 With temps showing near 40 on that last map, I'm 90% s ure it won't get that warm just like last storm! At least for some....then again the weather up to this has been down right colder I do believe, with basically a block of snow ice already on ground, frozen solid ground, dejavu or however you spell it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The GGEM has rain on Sunday night as far north as the LHV Yeah I think we can throw that one out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 At least we got a south trend I expect the euro to go south big time with this run. It's plenty cold for at least ice. Sad to say but i don't want freezing rain it's annoying. Snow I'll take any day. I wouldn't bother looking at the CMC and nam for the rest of this storm they will catch up to the king GFS now. Looks like euro wasn't that far off yes it was showing over a foot but if that low trends another 50 miles south and a bit stronger we could get 6-12 inches even in nyc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The Valentine's Day storm 2007 - could be a repeat - different setup but maybe similar results http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2007/14-Feb-07.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Which column is 850mb temps? Guessing the city makes it to +1.7C? 2.2C at 850. 1.7C is the dewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 With a CAD in place the surface temps will be cold. We saw what happened with the last storm as temps busted nearly 10 degrees too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The Valentine's Day storm 2007 - could be a repeat - different setup but maybe similar results http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2007/14-Feb-07.html nice try but no this analog doesn't make sense. The low is diving through the lakes not Ohio valley. Completely different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think the two would be directly related. Normally you would think so but the model is such a mess that it's not even worth trying to figure out what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 nice try but no this analog doesn't make sense. The low is diving through the lakes not Ohio valley. Completely different setup. i think he meant similar results in terms of ice. Most of the region saw a ridiculous sleet storm with that, you had to shovel it. waste of qpf but it was a pretty cool event i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 i think he meant similar results in terms of ice. Most of the region saw a ridiculous sleet storm with that, you had to shovel it. waste of qpf but it was a pretty cool event i guessi remember that storm I highly doubt we get any sleet from this event. It's either going to be rain freezing rain or snow. And right now I'm leaning towards snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Once the surface takes over the 850 s collapse. You just saw that Monday . The difference here its going to take over sooner IMO . The models are catching on and the trend is now S not N. The RGEM just took the 850s 30 miles S between 6z and 12z at 48 hours and brings 1 to 2 tomorrow onto Long Island so its adjusting already in the near term . I think a better CAD signature will start showing up now as we get closer to Mondays system. The GFS is very close to snowing through some of these layers at KNYC , if the city is lucky that's sleet and not freezing rain. The trend is now to a colder one aloft and unlike last weekend when we were adjusting the 850 line 10 miles N after after run , this time the adjustments should be S . To many people were convinced last week that NYC and Long Island would rain those of us who argued against it were correct. so once again , look beyond the models and why should this end up colder ? You have a very cold BL , the air mass is cold and SLP loves to look for warm air. Where is that ? South and east . You will have a SW cutting and developing to your S that will turn your wind NE It is very hard to rain in early Feb on a NE wind coming over snow cover . Yes the key will be when does the surface take over , but the models are seeing surface feature 72 hours out it did not see Mondays until it was developing. IMO the trend should be S and the details will get refined as we get closer. Excellent post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 E-Wall only goes back to Jan 1979. http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html Ooops, just saw Drz1111 already posted this link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 i remember that storm I highly doubt we get any sleet from this event. It's either going to be rain freezing rain or snow. And right now I'm leaning towards snow. what is your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 any news on the reliable uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 what is your location?bronxville, ny. I think I got over 7 inches of sleet with that storm it was kinda cool but snow is better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 nice try but no this analog doesn't make sense. The low is diving through the lakes not Ohio valley. Completely different setup. I mentioned in my post it was a different set up :facepalm:lets all read the posts throughly before we rip them apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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