IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 For those without SV access, the usually very conservative snow maps have 4"-6" into NYC and Queens. 2"-4" for western LI. 6"-8"+ for CT. 2"-4" for EWR and NWNJ. Nothing south of that. Also, sleet and ice for everyone and then eventually plain rain for NYC/LI and south. Once the transfer occurs on Monday afternoon temps try and cool but there wont be much precip left. We could end up with a repeat of last Monday on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 12z GFS has a tough commute for NYC Metro Monday morning with Sunday night freezing rain through the Monday AM rush. Very strong surface CAD and warming just above the deck isn't what you want to see. I hope this changes before then. Nasty recipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 If we get a touch (and I mean a touch) of a south nudge over next couple days, we would be looking at something very similar to last storm. And remember the bust on surface temps on that one from the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 12z GFS has a tough commute for NYC Metro Monday morning with Sunday night freezing rain through the Monday AM rush. Very strong surface CAD and warming just above the deck isn't what you want to see. I hope this changes before then. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs072hr_sfc_ptyp.gif It's not good if the surface cold wins out. I'd really it just be rain if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Impossible yanksfan said no snow in nyc We can't see in between hours. Which is why Snow maps, especially SV ones, are useful because you can get a snap shot of temps during heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Impossible yanksfan said no snow in nyc The GFS has snow accumulating between 12z and 18z with these temps aloft. I don't see it, maybe 850's hover right around 0C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Once the transfer occurs on Monday afternoon temps try and cool but there wont be much precip left. We could end up with a repeat of last Monday on the backend. In my opinion in between hours 69-75 hours, mid-levels cool temporarily under the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We can't see in between hours. Which is why Snow maps, especially SV ones, are useful because you can get a snap shot of temps during heaviest precip. Hr 75 is darn close for the city...plus with mod precp over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 12z GFS has a tough commute for NYC Metro Monday morning with Sunday night freezing rain through the Monday AM rush. Very strong surface CAD and warming just above the deck isn't what you want to see. I hope this changes before then. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs072hr_sfc_ptyp.gif Yes. People are honking for moderate snowfall, but this kind of solution would be downright dangerous for the NJ suburbs where I am. A bit of snow, but with a decent icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The mid level low tracks determine whether snow falls, not the surface low. The 850 low looks to ride over or north of NYC-this has to change for snow to reach the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Nasty recipe I guess we still have 72 hours to iron out where that ice transition zone verifies. The GFS surface temps are in the 20's 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The GFS puts the city right on the mix line or very close to it on Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The low now exits 75-125 miles to our south!! It will be a cold/wintry storm, close for any type of snow though...another nudge colder aloft and we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Does anyone have synoptic maps of the 73 ice storm here? I always sort of envisioned the setup was something like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Again, a screaming ice storm signal. Climatologically favored time of year (probably the peak 2 weeks for it), textbook track of surface and 850 lows . . . as long as the surface goes south of you, the model will almost certainly underestimate the CAD / HV draining going on given the strength of the snowpack and the way that the snowpack / cold water temps will tend to enhance the higher pressures over central/eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It is close to a snowier solution. We won't really know until tomorrow though. It wouldn't be a major snow event but perhaps a moderate 3-6" type storm could be possible if things trend colder further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just a plain ugly sounding for 12z Monday in NYC. Lets hope this changes next 72 hrs. SFC 1006 32 -1.7 -2.3 96 0.6 -1.9 52 15 271.0 271.5 270.9 279.6 3.21 1 1000 79 -2.3 -2.8 96 0.5 -2.5 53 19 270.9 271.4 270.7 279.2 3.10 2 950 485 -1.2 -1.3 99 0.1 -1.3 82 28 275.9 276.6 274.5 286.0 3.66 3 900 920 2.0 1.7 97 0.4 1.8 138 24 283.6 284.4 280.0 297.0 4.79 4 850 1382 2.2 1.7 96 0.5 2.0 180 26 288.5 289.4 282.6 303.0 5.10 5 800 1871 0.5 0.4 99 0.2 0.4 198 26 291.7 292.6 283.8 305.9 4.91 6 750 2387 -2.6 -2.7 99 0.1 -2.7 210 28 293.7 294.5 283.8 306.0 4.17 7 700 2931 -6.0 -6.4 97 0.4 -6.1 219 33 295.9 296.5 283.8 306.0 3.39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 In my opinion in between hours 69-75 hours, mid-levels cool temporarily under the heaviest precip. I just posted 850mb temps between 12z and 18z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just a plain ugly sounding for 12z Monday in NYC. SFC 1006 32 -1.7 -2.3 96 0.6 -1.9 52 15 271.0 271.5 270.9 279.6 3.21 1 1000 79 -2.3 -2.8 96 0.5 -2.5 53 19 270.9 271.4 270.7 279.2 3.10 2 950 485 -1.2 -1.3 99 0.1 -1.3 82 28 275.9 276.6 274.5 286.0 3.66 3 900 920 2.0 1.7 97 0.4 1.8 138 24 283.6 284.4 280.0 297.0 4.79 4 850 1382 2.2 1.7 96 0.5 2.0 180 26 288.5 289.4 282.6 303.0 5.10 5 800 1871 0.5 0.4 99 0.2 0.4 198 26 291.7 292.6 283.8 305.9 4.91 6 750 2387 -2.6 -2.7 99 0.1 -2.7 210 28 293.7 294.5 283.8 306.0 4.17 7 700 2931 -6.0 -6.4 97 0.4 -6.1 219 33 295.9 296.5 283.8 306.0 3.39 Which column is 850mb temps? Guessing the city makes it to +1.7C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Here you go, this settles it. Looks like NYC has under 0.10" LE falling as snow, how you get 4-6" out of that is beyond me. Ratios won't be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wow, that's .25-.50" of ice for NE NJ. Could get ugly, especially when you consider how models underestimate the warmth aloft and cold at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So people wont say tomorrow, "no model had this", 12z RGEM has accumulating snow early tomorrow morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 So people wont say tomorrow, "no model had this", 12z RGEM has accumulating snow early tomorrow morning: The 4k NAM has it too, we'll see. Not expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Does anyone have synoptic maps of the 73 ice storm here? I always sort of envisioned the setup was something like this E-Wall only goes back to Jan 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The GGEM is ticking South as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So do you guy's think this continues to trend south? Or do you think we're getting close to the final outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The GGEM has rain on Sunday night as far north as the LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 E-Wall only goes back to Jan 1979. This is probably your best option: http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 4k NAM has it too, we'll see. Not expecting much. Very cold upper and lower level temps, could yield an inch or 2 in spots. Snow will be fluffy and dry. Similar to yesterday's snowfall. Seeing the RGEM showing that inside of 24 hours, is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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