IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 This setup is colder and better then yesterday's storm. No chance of rain. Maybe some ice on that run. But 95% of it was powdery snow. I didn't say it was any of that. By 12z Monday the 850mb freezing line stretches from HPN to MMU. The warming occurs early Monday morning like I said. The immediate coast would mix with sleet at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This setup is colder and better then yesterday's storm. No chance of rain. Maybe some ice on that run. But 95% of it was powdery snow. This will be key here. The AO was forecast more robustly positive yesterday. If the AO can continue to trend more neutral, then the LP will be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 .75"-1"+ just north of NYC. NYC is .50"-.75" so basically 8-12+ N of say 287 in NY verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I didn't say it was any of that. By 12z Monday the 850mb freezing line stretches from HPN to MMU. The warming occurs early Monday morning like I said. The immediate coast would mix with sleet at that point. At 12z Monday the 850 line is south of KNYC and KLGA. And almost no precip falls after that. Storm done by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 The city goes above freezing at 850mb between 06z and 12z, the coast would lose roughly 0.10-0.20" LE to a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 At 12z Monday the 850 line is south of KNYC and KLGA. And almost no precip falls after that. Storm done by then. Wrong, look at 850mb temps at hr 144 on high res WxBell maps. You will see that the city, LI and CNJ are all above freezing by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 What's the point in arguing p-type details on a D5-6 plot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The city goes above freezing at 850mb between 06z and 12z, the coast would lose roughly 0.10-0.20" LE to a mix. Hour 135, 138 and 141, the 850 line never gets north of NYC or LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 What's the point in arguing p-type details on a D5-6 plot? Not arguing. I am correcting false info. The 850 line never gets north of KNYC or KLGA at hours 135, 138 or 141. Unless he has hourly maps in between that, those 3 hour panels do not show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The GFS and GGEM are colder . It`s 5 days away . I am just pointing out what I would like my starting point to be . Good threat on the models . Should be the take away . Will root that we snow from Philly on N so we get everyone you animals . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Hour 135, 138 and 141, the 850 line never gets north of NYC or LGA. Hour 144 is 12z. The bolded statement is wrong. At 12z Monday the 850 line is south of KNYC and KLGA. And almost no precip falls after that. Storm done by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Not arguing. I am correcting false info. The 850 line never gets north of KNYC or KLGA at hours 135, 138 or 141. Unless he has hourly maps in between that, those 3 hour panels do not show it. It's still 5-6 days out, who cares... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Hour 144 is 12z. The bolded statement is wrong. Bet me that you can't post for 24 hours that I'm wrong. At hour 144, the 850 line is just south of KNYC and KLGA. JFK is above 850 barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's still 5-6 days out, who cares... False info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Bet me that you can't post for 24 hours that I'm wrong. At hour 144, the 850 line is just south of KNYC and KLGA. JFK is above 850 barely. I just did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just south of KNYC and KLGA; storm is done by then also: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 They did something to block Euro maps from being able to be posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 False info. Is the heart of the storm not from 132-144hrs on this run? Again I ask, who cares about p-type details on a run that will likely be different in about 12 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Folks, please. Enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I have to agree with PB GFI. If you live on the coast this run raises a red flag! Any further north movement and the storm ends up just like yesterday... I would much rather the storm be well south so we have room to spare right now we have none and we still have 5 days to go!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just south of KNYC and KLGA; storm is done by then also: The high res map on WxBell tells a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Here we go, for whatever reason I was using IE and it was preventing me uploading this. The storm is mostly over by then but the warming occurs between 06z and 12z while precip is still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 ecmwf_t850_nyc_25.png This has 0 listed on NYC and LGA. Oh brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Put each other on ignore. Or bet something better, like having to shovel each others driveways or save snow and eat a snowcone flavor of sickman's choosing. Different maps do show different things...the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 This has 0 listed on NYC and LGA. Oh brother. Staten Island and Brooklyn are above freezing here, so is the south shore. The point is that this run was very close to being too warm for the coast. That's what everyone here has been trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Staten Island and Brooklyn are above freezing here, so is the south shore. The point is that this run was very close to being too warm for the coast. That's what everyone here has been trying to say. I never mentioned anything except KNYC and KLGA. And it wasn't close. The majority of the precip is over by the time warming gets close. 4"-8" run for everyone. 6 hours previous precip in 3 hour increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The GFS is colder and the Canadian has a great CAD signature . I would not sweat 1 Euro OP run and it`s 850 s . Would obv like to see the Euro where the GFS and CMC are and will just have to wait to see which model trends to the others . Good Monday threat at 12z , they all see it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Staten Island and Brooklyn are above freezing here, so is the south shore. The point is that this run was very close to being too warm for the coast. That's what everyone here has been trying to say. If that was the point, stop arguing about specifics, especially incorrect ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The GFS is colder and the Canadian has a great CAD signature . I would not sweat 1 Euro OP run and it`s 850 s . Would obv like to see the Euro where the GFS and CMC are and will just have to wait to see which model trends to the others . Good Monday threat at 12z , they all see it . Much more worried the CMC verifies on this one, this isn't like the last event, that high chases the system south the entire trek it makes from the Midwest to the East Coast, entirely possible it ends up suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 What's the point of arguing? The scenarios will change from run to run over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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