Rjay Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 They are pretty close .. I_nw_g1_EST_2015020600_072.png GGEM NAM @ 72 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015020600/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.png The southern extent of the precip is 100 miles further north on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 They are pretty close .. I_nw_g1_EST_2015020600_072.png GGEM NAM @ 72 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015020600/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.png Are you sure you're looking at the same maps as I am? The GGEM shows the heaviest precip for that panel over NE MA/S NH, while the NAM has it over Quebec. Either way, the WPC literally said the NAM solution is implausible. I would not be worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Are you sure you're looking at the same maps as I am? The GGEM shows the heaviest precip for that panel over NE MA/S NH, while the NAM has it over Quebec. Either way, the WPC literally said the NAM solution is implausible. I would not be worried about it. I was referring to the position of the low itself..not the QPF shield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I was referring to the position of the low itself..not the QPF shield... The position of the low isn't necessarily that important in these setups, it's about where the boundary sets up and where the overrunning is precip is oriented. The NAM is also much different than every other model at 500 mb, causing the precip shield to be significantly north of other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It's rain, but who cares, five days out. GGEM temperatures profiles at this range are totally unreliable. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think the euro gave up? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think the euro gave up? lol The Euro seems to have leaned toward the NAM. That's probably the only time when you doubt the Euro. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 If one looks carefully at the 6z NAM versus the 0z NAM...you can see that the southward trend that I guaranteed would happen (which will ultimately produce significant snows in this area...at least from NYC north) has begun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 NDFD precip type Sunday 1:00 am--Tuesday 1:00 pm http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ ..UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST DAY 3...THE MODELS STILL SHOW A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG AFRONTAL BNDRY WHICH STARTS OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THENDROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING/MONDAY MORNING. WARMAIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LOW TO MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK SUPPORT A STRIPE OFLIGHT-MODERATE SNOWS FROM NORTHERN MN THROUGH THE GREATLAKES...NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND SOME ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ITSELF.NORTH-SOUTH DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND IN THETRACK OF THE LOW...PERSISTED IN THE 06/00Z MODEL RUN CYCLE. THENAM WAS ON A MUCH MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...INPART SINCE IT TRIED TO DEEPEN A SHORTWAVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEWAVE TOPPED THE RIDGE IN CANADA WHICH LOOKED UNREALISTIC.CONSEQUENTLY THE NAM WAS GIVEN LITTLE CONSIDERATION. NOTICED THATTHE SNOWFALL OUTPUT FROM THE SREF WAS ALSO PULLEDNORTH...PRESUMABLY BY THE NAM MEMBERS. THE GFS WAS ON A MORESOUTHERLY PATH WHICH SEEMED MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE COLDAIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND WAS GIVEN MORE CONSIDERATION THAN THESREF.THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.BANN http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 If one looks carefully at the 6z NAM versus the 0z NAM...you can see that the southward trend that I guaranteed would happen (which will ultimately produce significant snows in this area...at least from NYC north) has begun.... The southward trend, albeit gradual, is also reflected on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The southward trend, albeit gradual, is also reflected on the 6z GFS. Looks pretty decent for the LHV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What did 6z GFS show for the NYC metro area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The southward trend, albeit gradual, is also reflected on the 6z GFS. gefs is also more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hopefully we can continue to get some south ticks on the 12 z runs this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 09z SREF which are still out of range made a tick South. Nothing huge, but definitly South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 06z GFS snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 06z GFS snow map Is a 50 miles shift south doable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 A few reasons... 1) Those weenie WxBell maps assume a 10:1 ratio which is not always correct, in fact most of the time it's wrong. 2) The WxBell maps count sleet as snow. 3) In general snowfall amounts are nearly impossible to forecast more than a day in advance, and sometimes even hours in advance as slight changes in temperature profiles and mesoscale features can have large implications. I like the snow maps.Not so much for the amounts they show ,but for trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Ukie snowmap has a few inches for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I would say at around the Rt.78 area, this storm hopefully will be close to a 'breakeven' for snowcover, maybe we lose 1-3" from warmth/rain, but gain 1-3/2-4 from new snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 To get the significant snow many of us dreaming of we need noticable ticks south starting with the Nam and continuing onwards through the new king ( GFS) and the old king ( Euro ). Im still hopeful because of lack sampling. Lets wait & see & above all hopeful we avoid Ice & freezing rain and snd sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 So far the frontal boundary is about 20-30 miles south of the 06z run of the NAM on Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Is a 50 miles shift south doable... Like I thought looks decent up in the LHV with over 6 inches possible... let's hope the trends continue to bring this south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Boston gets into it Sunday morning solidly where on the 06z run they were on the southern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just to show you how erratic this model is. At 12z Sunday the 850mb freezing line shifted from the southern LHV to ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thats it for the NAM run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thats it for the NAM run? It's not even worth discussing beyond 48 hours, but the South shift continued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It's not even worth discussing beyond 48 hours, but the South shift continued. Thats good to know thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 All we need from the NAM is about 300-350 more miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The shortwave on the 12z GFS is looking less amplified through 42 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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