Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I'd venture some of that in north-central NJ is actually sleet. Sv maps have 1-2 north of 78...Nothing south of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 you should stop misinforming people. a 2-4" snow event would mean at least .2-.4 LE falling as snow for NYC. Where do you see that on the 0z GFS? Again, I am talking about NYC proper. Not Rockland or Northern Westchester or CT.dude look at the map above. Just admit you were wrong and move on. I'm outta here I won't believe these models until Saturday yanksfan was mentioning this that the systems haven't even gotten sampled yet. Night everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Because Larry is one of the best synopticians out there and NOT just a model reading "meteorologists"! Really? He's been wrong about nearly every event this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramabdel12 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 When will Mondays storm be sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Really? He's been wrong about nearly every event this winter. That doesn't make him a bad meteorologist though. He is calling for a big coastal storm during mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 dude look at the map above. Just admit you were wrong and move on. I'm outta here I won't believe these models until Saturday ysnksfan was mentioning this that the systems haven't even gotten sampled yet. Night everyone! None of these snow maps are accurate. Please check soundings. Most of the frozen QPF for the city itself is sleet/mixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 dude look at the map above. Just admit you were wrong and move on. I'm outta here I won't believe these models until Saturday yanksfan was mentioning this that the systems haven't even gotten sampled yet. Night everyone! Upton even mentioned that this afternoon. With the way these models have gone this winter, they shouldn't be trusted until the day before the event lol. NYC has a better shot at the storm on Monday than the overrunning on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 That doesn't make him a bad meteorologist though. He is calling for a big coastal storm during mid February. Ok, I just think it's silly, especially given this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 That doesn't make him a bad meteorologist though. He is calling for a big coastal storm during mid February.I think anything at this point has a chance of verifying. Calling for a big coastal during mid February though is the equivalent of calling for a significant warmup in early April. Don't get me wrong, it's very possible, but definitely not a call that would stand out as being bold. In general, I think everyone's getting rather frustrated as we will begin to exit the heart of winter without a huge snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 None of these snow maps are accurate. Please check soundings. Most of the frozen QPF for the city itself is sleet/mixedno it's light drizzle/showers changing to snow. Temps crash as low pulls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think anything at this point has a chance of verifying. Calling for a big coastal during mid February though is the equivalent of calling for a significant warmup in early April. Don't get me wrong, it's very possible, but definitely not a call that would stand out as being bold. It's not because our area usually gets big snowstorms in February. With the MJO in phase 7-8, I wouldn't be shocked if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I wonder what Doorman thinks about this all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 no it's light drizzle/showers changing to snow. Temps crash as low pulls out. On Monday, it's a mixture to snow. 850s are warm while the surface is cold to start and just like you said, 850's drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This thread is a train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This thread is a train wreck. Thread is fine. Some models are a train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I wonder what Doorman thinks about this all.yes id like to hear his opinion he called for snow last time and it happened. Anyone check out the ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 yes id like to hear his opinion he called for snow last time and it happened. Anyone check out the ggem? GGEM is still way north compared to the GFS and Euro. WPC says discount the Nam. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GGEM is still way north compared to the GFS and Euro. WPC says discount the Nam. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd This feels like blizzard redux. We discount models at our own peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This feels like blizzard redux. We discount models at our own peril.Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Agree 100%except the blizzard didn't happen so wait a minute the models are saying no snow for now can that change? Absolutely!Models were showing a blizzard literally a day before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This feels like blizzard redux. We discount models at our own peril.Teleconnections are rather unfavorable, at least initially. Let's see what the s/w being sampled does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 except the blizzard didn't happen so wait a minute the models are saying no snow for now can that change? Absolutely! My point is that the NWS tossed the CMC and the GFS (and others) in favor of the Euro and NAM for forecasting NYC snowfall. That didn't go so well. I think it's equally dangerous to simply toss the Canadian (again) and the NAM. Of course they can be wrong, and of course the whole thing can shift south. But I don't see how it's smart to toss a model. If the GFS had really shifted south, it would be one thing, but it didn't. Another bump or two north could still happen, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This feels like blizzard redux. We discount models at our own peril. If the long-range NAM is that far off from all other guidance, it's pretty safe to toss the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The GGEM is back to allowing the miller B to escape East and it's focusing on the trailing energy left in the base of the trough. Blows up a huge storm that throws back some precip here on Monday night as it passes well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 If the long-range NAM is that far off from all other guidance, it's pretty safe to toss the NAM NAM does have support from the 00z GGEM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 NAM does have support from the 00z GGEM..... No, the NAM is at least 75-100 miles north of the Canadian (with the southern extent of the precip that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 00z UKMET also develops the surface low down south on Monday night but it also passes well offshore. Plenty of time to get that piece to trend more favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 IsentropicLift is that snow that ggem throws back for nyc metro or is mixed precip? If it is snow how much does it look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 No, the NAM is at least 75-100 miles north of the Canadian (with the southern extent of the precip that is) They are pretty close .. GGEM NAM @ 72 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015020600/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 IsentropicLift is that snow that ggem throws back for nyc metro or is mixed precip? If it is snow how much does it look like?It's rain, but who cares, five days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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